Following rules remains best defence

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 22/07/2020 (2053 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

A potential rise in COVID-19 cases in Manitoba linked to domestic travel can be avoided, but both travellers and locals need to play by pandemic rules, public health experts warn.

Earlier this week, Premier Brian Pallister released the provincial government’s draft Phase 4 economic restart plan, which proposes people from across Canada can enter Manitoba without having to isolate for 14 days.

Cynthia Carr, an epidemiologist and founder of Epi Research Inc., said she’s still uncertain about the plan, noting it’s challenging to monitor and track exposures from travellers, if they occur.

“That’s obviously an area where many people are worried,” Carr said. “We’ve already seen that when there’s gaps, quickly we can see outbreaks associated with a person travelling and bringing infection to Manitoba.

“There’s a lot of checks and balances that are going to need to be in place in going forward with that next stage of reopening,” she said.

Provincial public health officials reported eight new cases of the novel coronavirus on Wednesday, seven of which are connected to outbreaks in at least three separate Hutterite communities. The case clusters have been connected to travel to Alberta.

When asked, the province would not say if additional colonies have reported cases of the virus since Monday.

The total number of confirmed and probable cases in Manitoba stood at 374 Wednesday and the active case count was 49. Other active cases have been associated with international travel and trucking. One person was in intensive care at hospital due to COVID-19.

According to the province, the five-day test positivity rate — how many tests come back positive out of all conducted — was 1.12 per cent on Wednesday and has been increasing steadily since July 17, when the rolling five day average was reported at 0.43 per cent.

Public health has begun reporting the test-positivity rate as a more accurate measure of the prevalence of COVID-19 in the community and the rate of transmission.

At a press briefing last Thursday, chief provincial public health officer Dr. Brent Roussin said since the arrival of the coronavirus in Manitoba, the test-positivity rate has remained low. As of July 12, the test-positivity rate for all of Canada stood at 3.1 per cent, according to the federal government.

“We keep this number certainly under 1.5 per cent, we’re very low, and if we started seeing test positivity rates over three per cent then that would indicate to us that we’re likely seeing significant community based transmission,” Roussin said last week.

A spike in test-positivity rates alone wouldn’t trigger reintroduction of restrictions, so long as officials are confident cases are contained and significant community spread is not occurring.

A request for comment from provincial health officials was not accommodated.

Carr said using test-positivity rates as part of public health messaging is a smart move and is a valuable metric for the public to evaluate risk — particularly the speed of percentage increase.

“We always like to use rates instead of raw numbers for comparison because even if you’re trying to compare between regional health authorities or between communities, you’re always going to have more from a community or area that has more people,” she said.

“It will show us, too, if there’s massive differences between regional health authorities in increases in positive test result percentages —(if there) are steps being missed somewhere.”

A Free Press tally shows across Canada, average test-positivity rates range from 1.22 per cent in Quebec to 1.63 per cent in Saskatchewan and 1.78 per cent in British Columbia.

University of Saskatchewan professor Dr. David Butler-Jones said it’s not unreasonable to reopen to travellers under the current circumstances, but the key is to keep the infection rate down with physical distancing, avoiding confined spaces, handwashing and mask wearing.

“Those are the things that really have made the biggest difference,” said Butler-Jones, who is also Canada’s former chief public health officer. “If people are diligent with their own wearing of a mask, when you can’t maintain distance, and washing hands and staying home when you’re sick… that significantly decreases your risk.”

Available provincial data, as of July 11, shows approximately 80 per cent of recent cases were either travel-related or as a result of being in close contact with travel-related cases.

However, Manitoba’s premier hasn’t backed away from plans to ease border restrictions.

“We’re always concerned about new cases,” Pallister said Wednesday. “It looks like a spike because it was zero for two weeks. Let’s be fair.”

“The positivity test indicator went up because it was essentially zero… it had nowhere to go but up.”

A day earlier, the premier said he doesn’t accept that travel is a significant risk factor.

“The significant risk factor is that which results as a consequence of ignoring social distancing guidelines, handwashing, staying home when you’re ill,” Pallister said. “Those are the major risk factors you control.”

Travel will continue to be a gamble, even while practising social distancing, said Carr, although she acknowledges the premier does have a point.

“The epidemic spreads because of travel… the way to stop the chain of transmission applies to everyone,” Carr said. “By now we should all understand the rules, so whether we’re travelling or live here, we still need to be cognizant of the rules.”

danielle.dasilva@freepress.mb.ca