To deal or not to deal

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 14/02/2025 (296 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

Go big or go home? When it comes to the NHL trade deadline and how it relates to a Stanley Cup championship, that isn’t always the case.

There’s never a shortage of chatter around this time of year about how teams currently in contention are looking to beef up their rosters and go all-in for what they hope will be long, successful playoff runs.

There’s plenty of it in Winnipeg, where the Jets are currently enjoying the 4 Nations Face-Off break from their perch on top of the Central Division and Western Conference with a stellar 39-14-3 record. With plenty of cap space to weaponize, general manager Kevin Cheveldayoff could be busy between now and March 7.

Should he be? A Free Press analysis of the last 10 winners shows — more often than not — stepping up to the plate and trying to produce a solid single or double was a far better strategy than swinging for the fences. There are a few debatable exceptions, but there’s a valid argument to be made that taking a “if it ain’t broke, don’t try and fix it (at least too much)” approach can be successful.

Allow us to show our work and give a score on both the size of the swing and the overall impact on the team.

2024: Florida Panthers

You won’t find them listed anywhere on the “trade deadline winners” stories that were produced by plenty of publications, with GM Bill Zito adding a pair of veteran, past-their-prime depth forwards in Vladimir Tarasenko (for a fourth-round pick) and Kyle Okposo (for a fifth-round pick and a prospect).

Tarasenko played in all 24 playoff games and had nine points (5G, 4A) while Okposo dressed for 17 and produced just two assists. Neither was a significant needle-mover, yet the Panthers turned out just fine.

Swing: 4/10. Impact: 2/10

---

2023: Vegas Golden Knights

Ivan Barbashev wasn’t the biggest name to be moved — not with stars like Patrick Kane, Ryan O’Reilly, Timo Meier and Jakob Chychrun all getting new hockey homes — but he certainly made a difference.

The power-winger bolstered the top line and had 18 points (7G, 11A) in 22 games which was good for fifth in team scoring, then ultimately re-signed with them.

The price was a forward prospect named Zach Dean who was drafted 30th overall in 2021. Vegas also added some depth in forward Teddy Blueger (2 points in 6 playoff games).

Swing: 7/10. Impact: 9/10

---

2022: Colorado Avalanche

Again, not the sexiest of adds in forwards Artturi Lehkonen (for a prospect and a second-round pick), Andrew Cogliano (for a fifth-round pick) and Nico Sturm (for Tyson Jost) and defenceman Josh Manson (for a prospect and a second-round pick), but ultimately effective.

Lehkonen provided some solid secondary scoring (20 games, 8G, 6A) while Manson bolstered the blue line (20 games, 3G, 5A). Cogliano had 3G, 3A in 16 games while Sturm was an afterthought, with two assists in 13 games.

Swing: 6/10. Impact: 8/10

---

2021: Tampa Bay Lightning

A strange year, for sure, with the global pandemic causing the shuffling of divisions and an abbreviated season.

The only add they made was defenceman David Savard, who was solid but far from spectacular (20 games, 5 assists) and cost them a first-round, second-round and fourth-round pick.

Their real add came in injured star forward Nikita Kucherov, who emerged from LTIR just in the nick of time (to much angst from fans of other teams who believed a conspiracy had taken place).

Swing: 4/10. Impact: 3/10

---

2020: Tampa Bay Lightning

A much more aggressive approach in this one, with forwards Blake Coleman and Barclay Goodrow coming on board and forming two-thirds of what ended up being an outstanding third line (along with Yanni Gourde).

Going the other way were a pair of first-round picks, a top young prospect and a third-round pick. A steep price, but one that paid off, big-time, in helping to produce two consecutive Cups.

Swing: 8/10. Impact: 9/10

---

2019: St. Louis Blues

A true outlier, in so many ways. They were dead and buried at Christmas, only to go on an incredible second-half run and carry it all the way to a championship.

With no guarantee of even making the playoffs at the deadline, GM Doug Armstrong stood pat and didn’t acquire a single player who would appear in the post-season, which is the only example we could find in this span.

Turns out they didn’t need any help.

Swing: 0/10. Impact: 0/10

---

2018: Washington Capitals

Not a ton to really see here, either.

They added two depth defencemen in Michal Kempny (for a 3rd-round pick, he played in all 24 playoff games and had 2G, 3A while solidifying the top-pair with John Carlson) and Jakub Jerabek (he dressed for two playoff games, with no points), but otherwise didn’t mess with the success they were already having.

That turned out to be a good move.

Swing: 1/10. Impact: 3/10

---

2017: Pittsburgh Penguins

Like Washington the year after, they were in great shape at the deadline but opted to do very little, save for adding some depth defencemen in Ron Hainsey (second-round pick and a prospect), Mark Streit (fourth-round pick) and Frankie Corrado (fourth-round pick and Eric Fehr).

Only Hainsey made any real difference, with eight points (2G, 6A) and steady two-way play in 25 games.

Swing: 3/10. Impact: 4/10

---

2016: Pittsburgh Penguins

GM Jim Rutherford did the bulk of his wheeling and dealing in the preceding months by revamping his team’s roster — adding the HBK line of Carl Hagelin, Nick Bonino and Phil Kessel which would pay off in the form of back-to-back Cup victories.

He was quiet around the actual deadline, with only defenceman Justin Schultz (for a third-round draft pick) joining the club. He would end up playing in 15 of 24 games, chipping in four assists.

Swing: 2/10. Impact: 3/10

---

2015: Chicago Blackhawks

Star Patrick Kane broke his clavicle the day before the deadline, causing some panic in the Windy City. (He would miss two months but return for the start of the playoffs).

GM Stan Bowman was busy, bringing in forward Antoine Vermette (for a first-round pick and a prospect), depth forward Andrew Desjardins (for a seventh-round pick and a prospect) and defenceman Kimmo Timonen (for a second-round and fourth-round pick).

Vermette was a terrific add, scoring the winning goals in Game 4 of the Western Conference Final and Games 1 and 5 of the Stanley Cup Final. He may have had only seven points (4G, 3A) in 20 games, but they were all very important.

Desjardins (21 games, 1G, 3A) and Timonen (18 games, no points) played minor roles.

Swing: 6/10. Impact: 9/10

---

 

So what does this all mean for 2025?

Time will tell, but there’s at least a bit of “buyer beware” in play. Recent hockey history is filled with examples of teams (and fan-bases) who thought they’d hit a home run at the trade deadline — only to go home much sooner than expected.

None of the last 10 Cup winners were involved in what scribes and pundits at the time felt were the biggest blockbusters.

For what it’s worth, the Jets were on many “deadline winners” lists last March, after they acquired forwards Sean Monahan and Tyler Toffoli to surround a group that was in a similar position as they are this year. How did that turn out? A five-game exit in the first round of the playoffs, with Monahan and Toffoli quickly moving on as unrestricted free agents.

“It’s obviously not up to me, I’m not the GM, but our team is in a really good spot and this is the group that was pre-deadline last year for the most part and at this same time, we found ourselves in first place as well,” Jets forward Mason Appleton said recently. “So I think we’ve got a really good team in this room.”

Human nature suggests teams will be tempted to try to keep up with their closest rivals, especially as deals start to go down, and a feeling something needs to be done at the risk of getting left in the dust.

As the above examples show, it’s usually the work done well before the drop-dead date — free agent signings and trades in the off-season, drafting and developing young players to build a solid core — that seems to be the true recipe for success.

More often than not, it was the pieces already in place which have the real impact.

mike.mcintyre@freepress.mb.ca

X and Bluesky: @mikemcintyrewpg