Jets could use upgrade at fourth D-spot, but only if price is right

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 21/12/2018 (2452 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

One thing I’ve been fairly consistent about this season when looking at the Winnipeg Jets is that they could use another body on defence, specifically to play with Dustin Byfuglien.

Defensively, I think Tobias Enstrom is missed more than most expected he would be, which makes things tougher on Connor Hellebuyck and forces Winnipeg to score their way out of trouble more often. They can do that better than almost every other team in the league, but come playoff time I’m sure they’d like to grind out a few more wins in different ways.

We’re still some distance from the trade deadline, so there are fewer teams that are dead in the water than there will be in February, but I’m sure the Jets would love to get a No. 4 defenceman for Christmas.

I think it’s fair to say that the bottom five teams in the standings are strongly out of the picture, so looking strictly at teams that would be willing to part with players, what could the Jets do to improve their defence?

While St. Louis is reportedly open to trading anyone, including marquee names such as Alex Pietrangelo and Colton Parayko, both players have term left, which can complicate things for the Jets’ salary cap. I also don’t believe they need a star-level player. They need a mid-tier defenceman, so we’ll look at some players that are less obvious.

For the Jets’ cap situation this summer, we want to narrow the focus down to players who are on expiring contracts ideally, but we’ll include players with an extra year if the deal is affordable.

Those parameters turn up only three names; Joel Edmundson from St. Louis, Radko Gudas from Philadelphia and Derek Forbort from Los Angeles.

!function(e,t,s,i){var n=”InfogramEmbeds”,o=e.getElementsByTagName(“script”)[0],d=/^http:/.test(e.location)?”http:”:”https:”;if(/^/{2}/.test(i)&&(i=d+i),window[n]&&window[n].initialized)window[n].process&&window[n].process();else if(!e.getElementById(s)){var r=e.createElement(“script”);r.async=1,r.id=s,r.src=i,o.parentNode.insertBefore(r,o)}}(document,0,”infogram-async”,”https://e.infogram.com/js/dist/embed-loader-min.js”);

Looking at on-ice performance, these players are all on teams that are losing, but while Gudas is on the ice, the Flyers are absolutely crushing it. Edmundson is above 50 per cent in high-danger chances, but below in everything else. The Kings are outscoring opponents while Forbort is on the ice, despite being out-shot and out-chanced-chanced.

On-ice differentials are a good place to start, but we’ve got to get into what each of these players contribute to those numbers, what they do individually that drives success or doesn’t for their team, and see if it fits into what the Jets need.

!function(e,t,s,i){var n=”InfogramEmbeds”,o=e.getElementsByTagName(“script”)[0],d=/^http:/.test(e.location)?”http:”:”https:”;if(/^/{2}/.test(i)&&(i=d+i),window[n]&&window[n].initialized)window[n].process&&window[n].process();else if(!e.getElementById(s)){var r=e.createElement(“script”);r.async=1,r.id=s,r.src=i,o.parentNode.insertBefore(r,o)}}(document,0,”infogram-async”,”https://e.infogram.com/js/dist/embed-loader-min.js”);

The Jets’ biggest weakness defensively this season has been allowing chances off the rush. They’re giving up the blue line a little bit too easily, and once they do, their defenders are allowing too many passes and too many scoring chances.

I included Ben Chiarot in this breakdown because he would be knocked out of the top four by an incoming defenceman, so it’s worthwhile to see how much of an improvement each of these players would be in specific areas.

Edmundson and Gudas face more entry attempts than the other two, and also boast slightly higher entry-denial rates at 33 and 31 per cent, compared to Forbort and Chiarot who are just a hair under 30 per cent.

While Gudas is a decent player at defending his own blue line, it’s not often by directly engaging with the puck carrier. He gets it done more with a combination of his positioning and his reputation for big hits, so while he isn’t making as many stick checks or pass blocks in the neutral zone, he’s still having a big impact due to his playing style and willingness to use his body.

Another area where Gudas excels compared to the rest of the pack is once the puck is inside the defensive zone, where he blocks more passes and wins a huge number of puck battles. Of this group of players, I think it’s fairly obvious that Gudas is the best of the bunch.

Edmundson isn’t very active in puck battles, so his addition to the lineup could make the Jets a bit more susceptible to forechecking, but his strong blue-line defence would likely mitigate some of that.

What’s worthwhile to note here is that in the specific areas we’re looking at, the upgrade on Chiarot is not massive from any of these players, and that’s OK, because it’s just part of the equation, and the Jets don’t need a superstar. The added plus of acquiring a player who is slightly better than Chiarot, is he also gets to slide one slot down the lineup, making the third pair even stronger.

I don’t think it would be worth it to mortgage much of the future for an upgrade on defence for the Jets, especially if that player has term and could mess up the cap situation on July 1, but if GM Kevin Cheveldayoff is able to acquire one of these players for a package built around a second-round pick as the main piece, that’s worth thinking about.