A history of surprises

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 07/01/2022 (1669 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

Never before has the Africa Cup of Nations produced a repeat final, a reprise of the previous tournament’s decisive contest.

This is an event, after all, that tends to surprise.

In 1972, for example, the Republic of the Congo, competing as Congo-Brazzaville (not to be confused with Congo-Kinshasa, which became Zaire during qualifying), knocked off both Nigeria and Ivory Coast to book a spot in the competition proper, which they won after beating Mali 3-2 in Yaounde, having previously upset hosts Cameroon.

In 1996, celebrating the recent end of apartheid, hosts South Africa surprised 1990 champions Algeria and ’92 finalists Ghana before beating Tunisia and lifting the trophy in front of more than 80,000 fans in Johannesburg. They were congratulated by president Nelson Mandela and former head of state F.W. de Klerk, both of whom were in attendance.

And then there was the 2012 final in Libreville, Gabon, where an inspiring Zambian team upset Ivory Coast on penalties. The players sang together as they took their spot-kicks — Stophira Sunzu converting the decisive shot in the ninth round. Just days before, they had visited the Libreville beach near which, in 1993, most of the national team perished in a plane crash. They dedicated their triumph to former attacker and African Footballer of the Year Kalusha Bwalya, who was part of the ’93 squad.

This is all to say, while pleasantly reminiscing, that while 2019 finalists Algeria and Senegal are clearly two of the favourites to win the 2021 Cup of Nations (initially scheduled for last year, it was postponed due to the pandemic), it would be foolish to rule out the possibility of a team coming from nowhere and shocking either of them.

Burkina Faso, perhaps.

Semifinalists in 2017, the Stallions will play the opening match of the tournament on Sunday against hosts Cameroon (all matches broadcast or streaming on beIN Sports).

In Charleroi goalkeeper Herve Koffi, they have a shot-stopper capable of stealing a match — he’s done it before at the Cup of Nations — and forward Bertrand Traore scored eight goals for Aston Villa last season. They played Algeria to a pair of draws in World Cup Qualifying last fall.

Mali also enter the competition in good form, unbeaten in six internationals going back to June. Hamari Traore plays right-back in a very good Rennes team, but it’s in the centre of the park that The Eagles are particularly strong.

Diadie Samassekou has been in and out of the Hoffenheim lineup this term but is a reliable midfield anchor for his country, and Brighton’s Yves Bissouma provides a creative spark. RB Leipzig’s Amadou Haidara, recently linked with Manchester United, adds depth and an option on the right.

Guinea, too, could cause one or two problems. They actually beat Mali last year and also impressed in spring friendlies against Turkey and Kosovo.

Striker Mohamed Bayo has scored nine times for promoted Clermont in Ligue 1 and will be a player to keep an eye on other the next few weeks. Cape Verde, finally, stand a decent chance of qualifying from Group A, which also includes Burkina Faso and Cameroon. They’re coming off a November draw with Nigeria, and both Ryan Mendes and Julio Tavares can do some damage in attack.

Those are the dark horses. Then there are familiar contenders such as Egypt, Ghana, Cameroon, Morocco, Tunisia and Ivory Coast. All six will likely enter the Round of 16. At least one of them, history says, will eliminate a 2019 finalist. Probably.

The thing is, both Algeria and Senegal are very, very good. And if a Cup of Nations final was to produce a rematch, this one would be as likely as any.

It wasn’t even a month ago that Algeria, The Fennec Foxes, edged Tunisia in Qatar to claim the FIFA Arab Cup. The victory extended their unbeaten streak to 26, and an early-January friendly against Ghana made it 27. They’ve not lost in more than two years, and with Sierra Leone, Equatorial Guinea and Ivory Coast awaiting in Group E, they’ll almost certainly make it 30.

From goalkeeper Rais M’Bolhi and defenders Aissa Mandi and Ami Bensebaini through a midfield including Houssem Aouar and Ismael Bennacer to an attack featuring Riyad Mahrez and Islam Slimani, Algeria possess remarkable talent, nevermind a dearth of exploitable weaknesses. They could perhaps run the table in Cameroon.

But after coming so close in 2019, Senegal will be out for revenge—as well as a first ever continental title. And they have the firepower to do it.

With 26 international goals, Liverpool’s Sadio Mane could well overtake Henri Camara’s national record of 29 during the group stage, in which The Lions of Teranga will face Guinea, Malawi and Zimbabwe. He’ll be partnered by Cagliari’s Keita Balde in attack, and Watford’s Ismaila Sarr will provide a route forward from the wing.

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Then there is the midfield partnership of Idrissa Gueue and Nampalys Mendy, which might be the best in Africa, and the steady presence of captain Kalidou Koulibaly in defense.

In the early 2000s it was Egypt and Ivory Coast who stood apart in African football, although the Ivorians couldn’t quite break through. Senegal will be hoping for a different fate — if they can get to the final. Algeria, meanwhile, will be looking for a similar result — if they, too, can last until Feb. 6.

However, the history of this extraordinary tournament would indicate that a surprise awaits at least one of them. In as little as a week from now there could well be an entirely different narrative. All that’s left to do is await and savour the unpredictability of it all.

jerradpeters@gmail.com

Twitter @JerradPeters