Four is Canada’s magic number

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This article was published 23/09/2022 (1413 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

Four points.

That’s the target for Canada this autumn — the mark they’ll need to hit to have any chance of moving beyond the group stage at the upcoming FIFA World Cup.

Since 1998, when participation grew to its current 32 teams, 18 of them have progressed to the knockout rounds with those four precious points. That’s 18 of 96, or, as in every case they came second in their sections, 18 of 48. Just over a third.

Hardly the worst odds, but their campaigns have rarely extended beyond the last 16. Ghana, who beat the United States in extra time in 2010, were the last to do it, and the Americans, themselves, managed the feat in 2002. That same summer, Turkey advanced all the way to the semi-finals, where they lost 1-0 to eventual champions Brazil.

At the 1998 tournament, Denmark finished runners-up to hosts and soon-to-be-winners France, and Chile, quite incredibly, became the only team to get out of their group with a paltry three points — all draws. They were then summarily dispatched by Brazil in Paris.

Barring an unlikely alignment of outcomes, it’s four that Canada will need. That’s the magic number. And given the recent showings of their Group F opponents, they’ll require all the magic they can summon to reach it.

On Thursday, in their first match since June’s 1-0 win away to France, Croatia beat Denmark 2-1 to all but secure a berth in next year’s UEFA Nations League Finals.

Manager Zlatko Dalic, in charge since 2017, has introduced several new players to a squad that seemed to go stale shortly after losing the 2018 World Cup Final to Les Bleus, and he’s been repaid with an impressive run that has seen his side lose just once in the last calendar year.

The introduction of 20-year-old Red Bull Leipzig defender Josko Gvardiol, for example, has stabilized the Vatreni defense, and playmaker Lovro Majer, in only his ninth international appearance, scored the winner against the Danes.

This is a good team – and they know it.

In his post-match remarks, Borna Sosa, who opened the scoring at Stadion Maksimir, likened his goal to those of Jurgen Klinsmann. “We can do great things at the World Cup,” crowed sports daily Sportske Novosti.

The Belgian press was rather more cautious in the wake of their national team’s narrow 2-1 victory over Wales in Cardiff. “Kevin De Bruyne, increasingly a one-man show” was Antwerp-based HLN’s headline — a growing sentiment in and around Les Diables Rouges.

A problem for manager Roberto Martinez? Maybe. Though not exactly the worst one to have.

In De Bruyne, he can deploy one of the best playmaking midfielders in the world (if not the best) — a veteran who instantly and significantly improves the standards of everyone around him. The Manchester City maestro, however, is also 31 and prone to injury.

In recent weeks Eden Hazard has finally begun creeping into the Real Madrid XI, and the more burden he can shoulder the lighter it’ll be for his world-class teammate. Martinez has so far resisted the full implementations of blue-chip attackers Lois Openda of Lens and AC Milan’s Charles De Ketelaere, although he did hand 18-year-old Anderlecht defender Zeno Debast a full debut against the Welsh.

To collect their four points, Canada will need at least a draw against one of Belgium (Nov. 23) and Croatia (Nov. 27). And, as incredible as it seems, their best chance might well be against the former in their Group F opener.

Belgium, in the last 12 months, have won just five of 11 matches and rarely keep a clean sheet. Canada, quite clearly, can score.

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Strikers Cyle Larin and Jonathan David both tallied against a competitive Qatar side in their Vienna friendly — a convincing 2-0 win in which they kept nearly two-thirds of the ball and compiled 635 passes. They’ll need at least two similar showings at the World Cup.

Yes, two. Because after snatching a point from one of the European giants they’ll still have to beat Morocco (Dec. 1). And Morocco, incidentally, beat Chile quite comfortably on Friday.

But that’s the route to four. They may want to start bottling the magic already.

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Twitter @JerradPeters