World Cup always full of surprises

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 30/09/2022 (1428 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

If the just closed international window showed us anything, it’s that the upcoming FIFA World Cup will be pleasantly unpredictable, remarkably wide-open, and likely containing a surprise or two.

In other words, it revealed next to nothing.

Even the managers, considering such minutiae as formational tweaks or which youngster could perhaps replace a veteran in some version of their line-up, will surely understand that even their best laid plans could well be trampled in the very first moments of the very first matches in Qatar.

It’s the joy, or despair, of nation vs. nation competition: something unexpected, even weird, is bound to happen.

For every Brazil of 1970, an Argentina of 1978. For an upset of Hungary in ’54, a triumph of England in ’66. A hand of God, a hand of Suarez. And who was the only unbeaten side in 2010? You guessed it — New Zealand.

While forecasting group winners and filling out brackets a la March Madness might be a fool’s errand — nevermind guessing a champion — there are trends to be mindful of. The form chart may not mean everything, but neither is it meaningless. There are patterns to track.

Teams curving upward, for example, can feel rightfully more confident going into the World Cup than those angling down. As for the ones holding steady? Well, that’s where the fun is!

It may well be an exercise in futility, but here’s how the 12 top-ranked national teams (as per FIFA’s most recent list) are currently trending. The eventual World Cup winners are likely among this group, but some honourable mentions are included at the bottom. Just in case.

Trending up

Brazil: The five-time champions haven’t lost since the 2021 Copa America Final and have dropped just three points from their 15 matches since. Neymar, with 75 international goals, could well overtake Pele’s Brazil record of 77 in Qatar.

Argentina: Just imagine—a World Cup for Lionel Messi. Less than two months out from the World Cup, La Albiceleste have to be the closest thing the tournament has for a favourite. Unbeaten since before the pandemic, this is the strongest Argentina side of which Messi has been a part.

Netherlands: The three-time finalists comfortably dispatched Poland in Warsaw last week and outclassed Belgium in Amsterdam on Sunday. They don’t have an attacking superstar, but Virgil van Dijk marshals a sturdy defence, they move the ball well and they can shut down the opposition’s key playmaker. Just ask Kevin de Bruyne.

Uruguay: Following a disappointing Copa America and a generally disastrous 2021, La Celeste have thrived under new manager Diego Alonso — assuming last week’s wobble against Iran can written off as an aberration. A generational change has also yielded a considerably younger set-up than the last Oscar Tabarez teams.

Trending down

Belgium: As Kevin de Bruyne goes, so do the 2018 semifinalists — as evidenced by a recent win over Wales, in which he shone, and a 1-0 defeat to The Netherlands, in which he was a non-factor.

France: The implosion has already begun. Should-be talisman Kylian Mbappe is currently feuding with the football federation over image rights, and manager Didier Deschamps hasn’t the foggiest idea what his lineup will be in Qatar.

England: Zero wins in the Nations League. Relegation to League B. A 4-0 trouncing by Hungary on their own ground. England’s form chart makes dire reading, and it’s hard to see them getting out of an already weak group at the World Cup.

Mexico: El Tri have made seven straight World Cup knockout rounds, but the streak seems likely to end in November. Mexico have won just two of their last seven matches, and no player has scored more than once in that stretch.

Holding steady

Spain: Between 2008 and 2012, opponents were already beaten before they even took the field against La Roja. No longer. This Spanish team doesn’t scare anyone, although teenaged midfielders Pedri and Gavi occasionally dazzle in the centre of the park.

Portugal: On paper, the Euro 2016 and inaugural Nations League winners should be considered one of the top two or three favourites in Qatar. Should manager Fernando Santos adjust his approach to something rather more enterprising, a World Cup semifinal — at the very least — could well be in the cards for Portugal.

Denmark: Driven forward by the inspiring Christian Eriksen, Denmark will be a lot of people’s second-favourite team this autumn. They’ve beaten France twice since June and will play them in Group D.

Germany: Eliminated at the group state in 2018, bounced in the round of 16 at Euro 2020 — Germany would seem to be experiencing a very rare run of mediocrity. They’re also coming out of a dispiriting international break in which they lost at home to Hungary and blew a two-goal lead against England.

Worth a mention

Canada, holding steady: They didn’t have to get out of third gear to beat Qatar last week but were exposed as somewhat naïve against Uruguay on Tuesday. Since March, Canada has won only three times out of seven.

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USA, trending down: A June defeat of Granada is the Americans’ only win from their last five matches. They didn’t qualify for the 2018 World Cup, but somehow the current team is even worse. The December post-mortem will be fascinating.

Japan, trending up: The Blue Samurai will feel upbeat after their last two outings — a win over the USA and draw with Ecuador. Recent call-ups Kaoru Mitoma and Shuto Machino have been in rude form for their country.

Senegal, holding steady: The reigning African champions haven’t done a lot of losing in recent years. They beat Bolivia and drew Iran during the international break and will expect to advance from Group A alongside The Netherlands.

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