AFCON beautifully unpredictable

Not quite two years ago, Ivory Coast was dealt the heaviest home defeat in its history when its Elephants were flattened by Equatorial Guinea’s National Thunder.

That the 4-0 drubbing took place in the country’s largest city, and during the Africa Cup of Nations it was hosting, was embarrassing enough. That it followed a 1-0 defeat to Nigeria meant it was facing the likelihood of group stage elimination.

The players were in tears; the nation was furious. Worst of all, Ivorian icon Didier Drogba wasn’t angry — he was just disappointed.

Two days later, head coach Jean-Louis Gasset was sacked. That evening, Morocco edged Zambia in the final first-round match. The result meant Côte d’Ivoire had slipped into the last 16 as the fourth-best third-place team. Emerse Fae, a Gasset assistant, was quickly hired to replace his old boss.

Awaiting them was reigning African champion Senegal and its 100 per cent record. After four minutes, it seemed the inevitable had only been delayed when Habib Diallo put the Lions of Teranga in front after only four minutes. The score remained 1-0 until the 86th, when a botched Ivorian cross was met with a Senegalese foul, allowing Franck Kessie to equalize from the spot. The hosts then won on penalties.

A quarterfinal with Mali was next, and Ivory Coast again trailed before Simon Adingra restored parity in the 90th minute. Oumar Diakite completed the come-back with a 122nd-minute winner.

Back on all fours, the Elephants squashed DR Congo in the semifinals and Nigeria in the final, securing a third, and incredibly dramatic, continental triumph.

This is all to say — and despite the tangent we’ve barely done it justice — the Africa Cup of Nations is a most unpredictable competition, where star-studded superpowers do not exist and momentum can swing at the slightest shift in the wind.

Take Saturday’s round of 16 showdown between Senegal and Sudan (10 a.m., all matches on FuboTV).

Once again, Senegal has topped its bracket, conceding once and scoring a group stage second-best seven goals while doing it. On paper, it has to be a tournament co-favourite with host Morocco and free-wheeling Nigeria.

Sudan, on the other hand, snuck into play-off rounds without scoring a single goal. The game that got them there, a 1-0 win over Equatorial Guinea, came courtesy of a Saul Coco own-goal. Other than that, diddly squat.

Yet, it’s not like time would stop if the Nile Crocodiles slipped past the Senegalese en route to the quarterfinals. Yes, it would be an upset, and a lot of people in Dakar and Touba and Kaolack would be furious, but in a strictly Cup of Nations context it would not be earth-shattering.

When the Cup of Nations knockouts begin, prognostications aren’t worth the newspaper columns they’re written in.

Now, that doesn’t mean certain teams don’t experience pressure. Host nations are always expected to perform, and more often than not they do quite well.

Morocco, this time around, might be feeling it more than most. In setting new AFCON organizational standards and bulking up its urban infrastructure, the Kingdom has set itself up for a legendary celebration or monumental let-down. There is no in-between.

On the pitch, the Atlas Lions are able to field the sort of side that went all the way to the World Cup semifinals in 2022. Its “B” team also won the Arab Cup in December, underlining its remarkable depth.

Tanzania will be Morocco’s round of 16 opponent (Sunday, 10 a.m.) in what is this tournament’s highest seed vs. lowest seed encounter. The Taifa Stars went winless in the group stage, drawing twice and losing narrowly to Nigeria.

It should be a walkover, which means it likely won’t be. Anything from an early booking to a raindrop in the eye at an inopportune moment (the forecast is calling for wind and rain) could change everything. That’s the sort of edge the Cup of Nations is played on.

One might also think Nigeria should easily dispatch Mozambique on Monday (1 p.m.) One would be foolish to be so confident. And overconfidence, for that matter, has been the Super Eagles’ undoing many times before.

Each of the eight matches between now and Tuesday holds the potential for wild fluctuations of control, outstanding performances that come out of nowhere and enough turning points to make a person dizzy.

For the best footballing tilts, South Africa-Cameroon (Sunday, 1 p.m.) and Algeria-DR Congo (Tuesday, 10 a.m.) should provide the best viewing. Mali-Tunisia (Saturday, 1 p.m.) will also put a team in the quarter-finals that very much deserves it.

Which leaves record champions Egypt and 92-ranked Benin (Monday, 10 a.m.).

Egypt has flattered to deceive in recent Cups of Nations, twice finishing runner-up and twice going out at the round of 16 in the last four instalments. It had to come from behind to beat Zimbabwe on Matchday 1, after which it failed to score from open play. Benin, for its part, scored just once in the group stage — against last-place finisher Botswana.

Curiously, no one is really talking about The Pharaohs in Morocco, which might suit Mohamed Salah & Co. just fine. Should Benin pull off the upset, it’ll come as a momentary shock before everyone nods and moves on. An Egypt victory would be altogether unremarkable.

So, it’s probably a toss-up. And that could make it the most AFCON match of all.

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