Why are the Blue Jays slumping at such a crucial time? Baseball columnist Mike Wilner answered your questions

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 24/08/2021 (1522 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

Time is running out for the Blue Jays in their push for the playoffs and there is plenty to discuss through this point of the season.

Toronto Star baseball columnist and Deep Left Field podcast host Mike Wilner answered your questions about the Blue Jays and anything else baseball-related on Wednesday.

Also feel free to read our extensive coverage on the Jays by clicking here or listen to Deep Left Field by clicking here.

Below are the reader questions and his responses:

Q: Could any of the pitchers currently on the 60 day IL likely be back before the end of the season i.e. Yates, Merryweather, Phelps?

Who are some likely September call-ups?

A: Merryweather could very well be back, though with his track record even if he does come back, it might not be for that long. Phelps and Yates are long since out for the season.

September call-ups will be different this year than ever before because rosters are only expanding to 28, as opposed to 40. So there won’t be a group of call-ups, it’ll be more like it is now, with players going up and down throughout the month.

I’m thinking Nate Pearson will be one of them, unless he comes back sooner.

Q: Hey Mike thanks for doing this! Is there any logical explanation as to why the powerful offence of the first half has totally cratered since August 13?

A: The only logical explanation is that slumps happen, and teamwide slumps happen sometimes, too. Then you get what’s happening now, where nobody is hitting and because nobody is hitting, everyone is trying to be the guy who gets the big hit because the guy before them didn’t do it and it feeds on itself.

Trying harder doesn’t work in a sport like baseball, and these guys are going to have to figure that out. It’s difficult to do.

Q: Hey Mike, the Tellez-Richards trade has worked out pretty well so far for both teams, but since Rowdy left it seems Vladdy’s had to play the field more and have fewer DH days. Could the absence of a backup who is comfortable playing first be contributing to his recent downturn in production?

A: It could be, I mean, anything could be, but the likeliest reason for the downturn in Vladdy Jr.’s production is because he was on pace to win the Triple Crown at 22, and that’s something that no one should ever have expected. It’s crazy that even with the slump that Guerrero has been in — he’s hitting .230 in August so far — his OPS for the season is still 1.000. That’s legitimately crazy.

He’s such a good hitter that he will more than likely someday be able to sustain the level of production that he had in the first half, but that’s a really high bar. And he’s playing 162 for the first time in his life, and in a playoff race. Dips were bound to happen, it’ll be interesting to see how he comes out of it.

Q: I have the impression that for a while Blue Jay management has decided to cycle and”audition” younger players from Buffalo.I think they have already decided to look toward next season.

Am I wrong?

Also do you think Charlie really knows how to manage pitching?

A: Yes, you’re wrong. In no way has the Blue Jays front office given up on this season. They understand who is in front of them and the cream puff schedule that awaits them. Kevin Smith is here because he was having a great year in AAA, Cavan Biggio is hurt and the Breyvic Valera/Santiago Espinal combo at third base isn’t getting the job done. Josh Palacios is here because he earned it and because an alternative to Randal Grichuk in centre with George Springer out isn’t a bad thing.

I think the idea that Charlie Montoyo doesn’t know how to manage pitching is ludicrous. He can only choose from what he has, and the fans who believe every move he makes is the wrong move are suspiciously silent when the Blue Jays win games, which they’ve still done more than they’ve lost. There seems to be this feeling of “when the bullpen blows up, it’s Charlie’s fault, when they pitch well, they got lucky” which is common across lots of sports fandoms, I guess, but that doesn’t make it rational.

Q: It is no surprise that the Jays’ offence has dried up over the past few weeks. Why do you think that is and what do you think Jays’ hitters need to do to work through this slump?

I’m not sure why it’s no surprise, but OK. I addressed the teamwide slump thing above, and really all I think they need to do to get out of it is have that one game where things start to go right. Where a ball drops in, where someone gets rewarded for hitting a rocket instead of having it turned into a double-play. Where somebody gets a big hit in a big spot and then the next guy does, too. games like that can lift huge weights off teams.

Like that 13-1 win over the Red Sox just before the Jays came back to Toronto that kicked them off on a run where they won 12 of 15.

Q: What do you think is wrong with Berrios?

A: I haven’t seen enough of him to know, but I always go back to my humanist perspective on things. A lot of times we expect these elite-level athletes to perform at their best every time we see them, and that’s just unrealistic. Berrios had two fantastic starts to begin his Jays tenure, then a bad one in Anaheim, then made one bad pitch in DC after he had just thrown away a double-play ball, then was crappy again last night. These things happen. It would be great if you could mark him down for seven innings and one or two runs every time out, but nobody does that. Nobody.

Of course we should be expecting him to be better than he has been over the last three starts, though I contend the one in Washington wasn’t that bad, and the Jays did recover to take the lead after he’d left. Last night, he was apparently surprised by how aggressive the White Sox hitters were, and failed to adjust to that. Strange, because he’s pitched against them so much.

He has a long track record of being very, very good, and that speaks more to me that a couple of blow-ups. I’m sure he’ll be fine.

Q: Not a Charlie (Montoyo) basher but, is he here next year and do you think that with the right pieces he is capable of leading next years group to the promised land?

A: I think with the right pieces, pretty much any manager is capable of leading a team to the promised land. Players win games, not managers. A manager who has the right tools and doesn’t use them properly can lose some games for you, but Montoyo hasn’t had the right tools very often this season, if ever when thinking about the bullpen.

That said, I also believe Montoyo was brought in to oversee the Blue Jays’ transition from 95-loss team to playoff contender. I don’t know if the front office ever planned to still have him at the reins when the team was actually ready to win.

But it also needs to be said, because many people don’t seem to have gotten it yet, that the Blue Jays are a collaborative organization in which the front office works very closely with the staff on the field. Montoyo, like most managers in today’s game, doesn’t have the autonomy to just do what he wants whenever he wants to.

Q: Why isn’t Santiago Espinal the everyday third baseman? Also, the Jays have so many catchers, do you think any of them could be used as trade pieces? I really don’t think all of them are going to be able to get a decent chance to prove themselves in the majors.

A: Espinal isn’t the everyday third baseman because I believe the Blue Jays see him as someone who is at his best when he isn’t playing every day, and also because I think they’d like more pop out of that position than he has.

The Jays have already traded one catcher — Riley Adams — for bullpen help in Brad Hand, which hasn’t worked out yet. Right now, they only have two healthy catchers in McGuire and Kirk, one of whom is having a hard time offensively and the other of whom is having a hard time defensively. Danny Jansen is on the mend, but he still has a lot to prove with the bat at the big-league level. Gabriel Moreno, the next catcher-of-the-future, is hurt. There are a lot of bodies, but not one has shown to be indispensable yet.

Q: Do they Jays stand a chance of signing Scherzer in the off-season, or someone else of his calibre perhaps via trade?

A: I don’t think Max Scherzer wants to come to Toronto, but I also don’t think the Blue Jays want to spend a crapload of money on a 37-year-old free-agent starting pitcher when they’ll have at least Ryu, Berrios and Manoah coming back. I think they’d spend a crapload on Robbie Ray, though, if they can make it work.

Trades are always a possibility. Even without Austin Martin and SWR, the Jays have one of the better farm systems in the game, and the Berrios deal showed they’re willing to trade their top prospects for the right return.

Q: Hi Mike. Lourdes Gurriel has been a bit of an adventure at times in left field, to say the least. His arm out there is such a tantalizing weapon to have, but some of his reads and routes have been pretty awful. What do you see for him as a Blue Jay as time goes on, or do you see him being part of a trade package during the off-season?

A: Yeah, it’s a big question – does Gurriel’s arm help the Blue Jays more than his lack of range hurts them? I don’t think it does. But he is a really intriguing talent. When he gets hot, he gets hot for like a month at a time and can almost carry a team. When he slumps, you get nothing out of him for long stretches. I wonder if he could play third base – he was an infielder coming up and certainly has the arm for it. And a third baseman doesn’t generally have the time that a second baseman does to start thinking too much, which is what happened to him in early ’19 when he got “the thing”.

It’s important to remember, though, that Gurriel hasn’t been playing the outfield that long, this is really his first full season as an outfielder, and he’s now the backup first baseman, so he’s still got a toe in the infield, as well. There’s still a chance for him to improve. And he’s not making any money, so there shouldn’t be a rush to trade him.

Q: Hey Mike, do you think that the Jays still hope Nate has a future in the starting rotation or do you think the bullpen maybe a better fit for him with his recent injuries? Thanks

A: That’s something that only time will tell. I think Pearson will be a reliever for the rest of this season once he comes up in the next week or two, but I don’t think the Blue Jays want to shut the door on him as a starter, because the upside is so high.

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But if he keeps getting hurt, they’re not going to have a choice. And if he winds up being a reliever, he could be a dominant one.

Q: Looking ahead a bit, there are a lot of really interesting bats, gloves, and arms in this years free agent class. The Jays have made a splash twice recently with the signings of Ryu and Springer, but do you see them showing any interest in any of the big names slated to be available this winter?

A: Just got this one in under the wire!

I will be watching with interest to see how involved the Blue Jays get in free agency this off-season, especially with a few big-time shortstops out there like Corey Seager, Trevor Story and, of course, Marcus Semien. They have enough money to bring back both Ray and Semien, but I don’t know if they’re willing to spend THAT much, or if Ray and Semien both want to come back. Remember, it’s ultimately up to the players.

It’s a big ask for them to make a huge splash three winters in a row, but it’s certainly possible.