For Jays star Vladimir Guerrero Jr., the AL MVP window opens ever so slightly

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This article was published 16/09/2021 (1502 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

Debate about the American League’s most valuable player still sways toward Shohei Ohtani, the Angels’ two-way star, with about two weeks to go in the regular season.

Of late, however, the discussion has started with an acknowledgment that fellow contender Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is on an absolute tear at the plate — putting a rare Triple Crown within reach — and a shout-out to the Blue Jays, arguably the most feared team in baseball with the playoffs just around the corner.

Then comes the but.

While Guerrero’s offence has been unmatched across the board (also first in the AL in on-base percentage and slugging), he can’t pitch.

Ohtani, meanwhile, has been dominant as the ace of the Angels’ staff while also contending for the home-run crown. Guerrero might get his team to the post-season, a factor in the eyes of many award voters, but Ohtani’s performance for the sub-.500 Angels is awfully hard to beat.

But the race isn’t over till it’s over, and Guerrero is hot now while Ohtani has struggled at the plate in recent weeks. Recency bias could play a role in the outcome. And Ohtani may have thrown his last pitch of the season.

With a strong finish, Guerrero might be in position to sway enough undecided voters.

Two special players doing special things is good news for the game, but tricky for the baseball writers who have to make a choice when it comes time to vote. Ballots are cast before the playoffs, with the winner announced some time after the World Series.

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Here’s a closer look at the MVP case for both AL contenders:

The case for …

• Guerrero: We’re on Triple Crown watch when it comes to the 22-year-old first baseman. Guerrero is tied for the home-run lead with Salvador Perez of the Royals at 45. His .317 batting average trails only Oakland’s Starling Marte (.322), who started the season with the Miami Marlins. Guerrero sits third in runs batted in with 103, nine behind Perez, the AL leader. He has also saved a number of runs with his glove.

• Ohtani: The 27-year-old two-way star has set himself apart by not only emerging as the ace of the rotation, less than three years after Tommy John surgery, but carrying the Angels offence with three-time AL MVP Mike Trout injured for most of the season. Ohtani, with 44, is pushing Guerrero and Perez for the home-run title to go with 94 RBIs. He also has speed that Guerrero can’t match, stealing 23 bases. On the mound, he’s 9-2 with a 3.36 earned run average. In nine starts since June 30, his ERA is 3.09.

The case against …

• Guerrero: Given Ohtani’s advantage — no, Guerrero won’t be pitching down the stretch — anything less than the Triple Crown likely won’t be enough. Guerrero didn’t hold the outright lead in any of the three categories after Thursday’s games. All he can do is stay hot at the plate over the Jays’ final 16 games, help the club reach the playoffs and hope for the best.

• Ohtani: As good as the numbers look, he hasn’t been as good at the plate in the second half: .279 with 33 home runs before the all-star break, and .219 with 11 homers since. And while his pitching improved, he may not be on the mound again this year. Angels manager Joe Maddon announced Thursday that Ohtani won’t make his scheduled Friday start because of right arm soreness. Maddon said Ohtani, still cleared to bat as designated hitter, wants to continue to pitch in hopes of a 10th win. But with the playoffs out of the picture, the Angels will no doubt shut him down if there’s any risk.

The precedent

• Guerrero: There have been 10 batting Triple Crowns (tops in the AL or NL in home runs, RBIs and average) since the Baseball Writers’ Association of America started the modern MVP selection process after the 1931 season, the last by Miguel Cabrera of the Detroit Tigers in 2012. Six resulted in MVP awards. The outliers? Chuck Klein in 1933, Lou Gehrig in 1934 and Ted Williams in 1942 and 1947. Cabrera beat out Trout, who led baseball in WAR that year.

• Ohtani: Ohtani’s closest comparison is legend Babe Ruth, the last player to pitch 100 innings and make 200 plate appearances in a single season, in 1918 and 1919. Ohtani, though, is the first player ever to hit 30 home runs and make 10 starts in a single season. It took him just 81 games.

Laura Armstrong is a Star sports reporter based in Toronto. Follow her on Twitter: @lauraarmy