Canada has every reason to take part in World Cup

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This article was published 13/11/2021 (1730 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

It would be easy to assert that Canada’s goal of qualifying for the 2022 men’s World Cup will be achieved, or not, based solely on the performances of their players and nous of their coaching staff.

And, make no mistake, such declarations are indicative of the quality they’ve so far shown not only in this CONCACAF octagonal but also at the summer’s Gold Cup and through the calendar year generally.

It’s been something of a luxury to focus so intently on this group, to consider each match in terms of what Canada must do to prevail, what displays might be required from Alphonso Davies or Jonathan David or Stephen Eustaquio to get the necessary results for a top-three finish in the final table.

But it’s only part of the story.

The other part — and it’s of considerable advantage to Canada — is a cyclical downturn in quality among most octagonal rivals. In other words, there’s a rather unique opportunity here for an unconventional CONCACAF nation to secure a World Cup berth at the expense of a traditional contender.

Take Mexico for example.

In the past, their Tuesday match in Edmonton would have been one that Canada merely wanted to keep close, nevermind get a result from. That’s obviously not the case this time around, and beyond the burgeoning ability of their hosts, the reality is that El Tri are as weak as they’ve been in some time.

That Canada were able to dominate long stretches at the Azteca last month and in their Gold Cup semifinal in July had as much to do with the limitations of Andres Guardado and Hector Herrera — both on the wrong side of 30 — as Eustaquio’s game management and the wide threats of Davies and Tajon Buchanan.

Mexico have played to awkward draws with Honduras, Panama and Trinidad and Tobago in 2021, and in late October a domestic selection lost to an understrength Ecuador in Charlotte. They swapped in an entirely new midfield after Canada drew them in Mexico City, and while they went on to beat Honduras, manager Gerardo Martino’s job was made that more difficult. He has no idea what his best XI is.

Then there’s the United States.

Like Mexico, the reigning Gold Cup and CONCACAF Nations League champions drew Canada at home in qualifying. They also dominated possession, which they didn’t do in their Gold Cup meeting, but still created very little. Incredibly, by the time they faced Panama last month they’d deployed a completely different defence and forward line. They lost 1-0.

But manager Gregg Berhalter one-upped even himself the next time out, changing 10 of the 11 starters for Costa Rica’s visit. They went behind early and relied on an own-goal to win 2-1.

The takeaway is that Berhalter is even less assured of his team than Martino. Granted, he hasn’t been helped by the injury bug, which seems to ravage the squad each international matchday, but the wholesale chopping and changing has only served to heap additional pressure on him, and there was a lot to begin with.

The Americans are young, very young. Third-string goalkeeper Sean Johnson is the only player over 30, and 16 of them are 24-years-old or younger. They can also impress at times, such as when teenaged striker Ricardo Pepi notches a brace against Jamaica.

But they are wildly inconsistent and don’t have a player who can take over a game. They also struggle mightily to find the back of the net.

Panama, one of CONCACAF’s representatives at the last World Cup, are also vulnerable in this final round of qualifying — a fact Canada underlined when they beat Los Canaleros 4-1 in Toronto. Gabriel Torres, who scored important goals to help take his country to Russia, doesn’t even start anymore, and former captain and stalwart defender Roman Torres has retired from international football.

Only once in their last seven outings have Panama scored more than a single goal, and right now if an opponent can shut down Rolando Blackburn they’re well on their way to securing a result.

Honduras are even more anemic offensively and have been absolutely woeful this calendar year. They brought an eight-match winless run into Friday’s match at home to Panama as well as the worst goal-differential of the octagonal.

The days of Carlos Pavon, Jerry Bengtson and Carlo Costly firing Los Catrachos into consecutive World Cups in 2010 and 2014 are well and truly gone, and their physically intimidating reputation is on the wane as well.

Physicality, incidentally, is basically all Jamaica have brought to the octagonal thus far — as Canada found out over a gruelling 90 minutes in Kingston early last month. El Salvador, meanwhile, have already been walloped by Canada in Toronto.

This is all to say that Canada have every reason to anticipate a first World Cup since 1986. The team is as good as it’s ever been, and the region is collectively in decline.

It’s really the perfect storm.

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