Make or break time for Gunners

Back in the early winter of 1998, it looked as though Aston Villa was on course for a first English championship in 18 years. Julian Joachim (remember him?) and Dion Dublin were scoring for fun, and a rejuvenated Paul Merson was showing why he’d been named to the PFA Team of the Year the previous spring.

The club celebrated Christmas where it had been since the second week of September: atop the Premier League table. Then, on Boxing Day, Villa lost 2-1 to Blackburn Rovers. It regrouped to edge Sheffield Wednesday on Dec. 28, but by the time Villa played to a scoreless draw at home to Middlesbrough on Jan. 9, the title was gone.

Aston Villa finished the season in sixth, outside the European places.

The following Christmas it was Leeds United on the Premier League perch. The West Yorkshire outfit had entered the holidays on the back of a 2-0 win at Chelsea – both goals courtesy of the unlikely Stephen McPhail, who scored only three over parts of seven seasons for the club – and a first title since 1992 seemed a reasonable proposition.

Leeds even beat Leicester City on Boxing Day, but it all went to pieces after that. Back-to-back losses to Arsenal and Aston Villa on Dec. 28 and Jan. 3 pretty much put them out of contention, and by May Leeds wound up third in the standings, 22 points adrift of champions Manchester United.

Both Aston Villa, in ‘98, and Leeds United, in ‘99, tripped up at that most vital juncture in the schedule, the gruelling festive fixture list, and it cost them dearly.

Much like Canada’s holiday obsession with the World Junior Hockey Championship, which got underway Friday, the testing run of matches between the 19th or 20th of December and early January is a merry tradition of English football. Typically, and it used to be worse, a team will play four matches in a fortnight, followed quickly by the third round of the FA Cup.

In the 33-year history of the Premier League, the club heading the pack on Christmas has proceeded to lift the trophy on 17 occasions, or 52 per cent of the time.

At first glance, the effective coin-flip seems quite favourable, but not so fast.

Having what is basically a 50-50 chance of not winning the title after leading the division at what is pretty much the season’s halfway point represents absolutely brutal odds. As Villa and Leeds and many others can attest, it’s the festive period that unmakes potential champions – and makes others.

Arsenal knows it too, even if the Gunners’ collapses have tended to come a bit later in the calendar. Four times they have led the league on Christmas Day; four times they have finished lower than first. It’s happened in two of the last three campaigns.

Going into this weekend’s round of matches, Arsenal paces the Premier League yet again. It has held the top position since early October and currently leads second-place Manchester City by two points. Aston Villa trails by three.

The North London club kicked off Christmas week by beating Everton at the new Hill Dickinson Stadium. Then, thanks to a scheduling quirk, they had to host Crystal Palace in a Carabao Cup quarterfinal on Tuesday, which means Arsenal will have played six matches in all competitions by the time it takes on Portsmouth in the FA Cup on Jan. 11.

Brighton & Hove Albion is up first (Saturday, 9 a.m., FuboTV).

This has tended to be a tricky assignment for Arsenal, which has downed the Seagulls on six of 16 occasions since the latter gained promotion in 2017. That said, the Gunners’ recent form against Brighton is unlikely to be what worries them the most through the next 12 days.

Arsenal last won the Premier League in 2004. Given its domestic size and worldwide stature, that’s the sort of slump that would, or should, weigh on every player. The burden becomes even heavier when the club recalls the number and magnitude of its post-holiday implosions.

Christmas Day, 2002: First-place Arsenal is the defending champion and buckles under pressure from Manchester United.

Christmas Day, 2007: First-place Arsenal complete the season in third, behind Man United and Chelsea.

Christmas Day, 2022: First-place Arsenal lead the league for 248 days before being chased down by Manchester City.

Christmas Day, 2023: First-place Arsenal lose at home to West Ham on Dec. 28, lose at Fulham on New Year’s Eve and, again, concede the title to City.

Enough players remain from those last two examples to make the Brighton match and, crucially, the Dec. 30 showdown with Villa (2:15 p.m., FuboTV) seem downright scary. City’s run of seven wins in a row in all competitions — including a 2-1 triumph against Real Madrid in the Champions League — means Arsenal simply can’t afford to drop points.

Villa, meanwhile, has won 10 on the spin and could consign the leader to third if it prevails on Tuesday. By next Saturday, when Arsenal travels to Bournemouth (11:30 a.m., FuboTV), the standings could look quite a bit different. Or not.

Yes, the Gunners have the reputation as accomplished choke artists, but Arsenal is still in first as the games come thick and fast. Beat Brighton, and the pressure subsides just a bit. Beat Villa, and the breathing gets even easier.

Either way, the festive fixture period will leave its mark on the Premier League season. It always does. For the teams in contention, the objective is to come out of it unscathed – to avoid becoming another cautionary tale.

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