Travel predictions for 2022 punctuated with uncertainty

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 08/01/2022 (1430 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

Just as travellers began to see a brighter sun rising over the COVID-19 horizon, the new Omicron variant pushed dark clouds into the picture, creating uncertainty about what lies ahead.

As the variant seems, at least for now, not to be as virulent as the Delta strain, I am beginning to hear voices of optimism. Two travel attitudes that seem to be most pronounced are at opposite ends of the emotional spectrum. About half of the travelling public seems as determined as ever to travel over the coming months — while the other half feel confined in a bubble of discouragement and distrust.

Will I be stuck in some foreign country, what will be the challenges in returning, and can I believe cleaning protocols have been followed?

As we move into 2022, with my own perceptions and the views of other experts in the industry, here are my travel predictions for the year ahead.

Last-minute bookings will prevail

In the past, last-minute bookings were mostly about finding the best deal — the lowest price based on inventory the tour operators wanted to dump to fill the planes and resorts.

This year last-minute prices may or may not go down — as the industry is recognizing there is a public wait and see attitude with vacation planning based on the way health issues have risen or fallen at their destinations of choice, as well as how effectively the on the ground safety measures are put in place.

More flexibility in booking requirements

The days of being locked into non-refundable payments is already being relaxed and that trend is likely to expand so long as the pandemic is still with us.

Neither airline companies or tour operators are happy with this reality. It completely disrupts their planning and budgeting processes, which are necessary if they are to sustain any measure of profitability during this difficult period.

Travellers also need to take into account that a promise made is not necessarily a promise kept. Working with suppliers you trust and have confidence in is important. Many of the reader emails I receive are from people frustrated with trying to get back their deposits — or even complete trip costs for cancelled holidays — and some of these suppliers are well established but are processing returns at a snail’s pace.

Canada’s health-care system will keep Canadians home

Needing health care on any trip is problematic. Ensuring insurance covers most of the costs, hospital stays and the uncertainty of the visiting countries quality of care are all concerns, but the added questions regarding quarantine guidelines and costs, along with policy issues that could create returning to Canada difficult will change travel destination choices.

There is a greater feeling of security and trust for the kind of care Canadians will receive at little or no costs in neighbouring provinces — should unforeseen circumstances arise.

Wait times will increase

Whether it’s at security, as you go through the boarding procedure, or worse still — be put on an interminably long hold for a telephone call to an airline or tour supplier — patience will be an important virtue.

To wit, the recent spate of cancelled airline flights because of staff illnesses lead to wait times of between 24 and 48 hours in some of the worst cases.

Unusual events they are, but the checking for vaccination status, the assurances that mask requirements will be followed, and a general desire to check with suppliers in advance to confirm there are no delays all contribute to the certainty of delays.

Less of a rush to see everything

It’s a common vacation practice to be on the go from morning to night in hopes of taking in every highlight of a chosen destination.

It is still excellent to feel the vibe of a foreign destination while avoiding the prime hours when hundreds of people will gather at popular sites. The wish to travel has not lessened, and playing it safe by avoiding large crowds, while still capturing the essence of a city or country will become more common.

Airbnb, VRBO and others on the rise

Marriott’s Homes and Villas platform continues to expand as other chains express possible plans to expand into this sector.

Part of this growth is based on a traveller’s desire to have better control over their health environment. Even if the company has all sorts of deep cleaning promises, many feel they will add to that promise by cleaning to their own standards when they arrive at their home-sharing property.

Vacationers also like the fact they can control the number of people they are forced to come in contact with by preparing meals in their own people-controlled space.

Last to set sail

It is the cruise industry that will be the last to recover. With ongoing recommendations to avoid cruise travel and COVID-19 outbreaks already being reported on the cruise ships which have restarted, as much as people long for this relaxing form of travel, booking a cruise now is the least palatable desire of even the most committed cruisers.

pradinukr@shaw.ca