Canada’s fight with Trump isn’t just economic, it’s existential

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This article was published 03/01/2025 (451 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

This article was originally published on The Conversation, an independent and nonprofit source of news, analysis and commentary from academic experts. Disclosure information is available on the original site.

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Author: Stewart Prest, Lecturer, Political Science, University of British Columbia

United States President-elect Donald Trump has reiterated his apparent desire to make Canada a 51st American state, sharing a recent social media post about Canadian entrepreneur Kevin O’Leary’s support of the idea.

Trump was roundly mocked for his latest trolling of Canada, but his apparent fixation is dangerous at a time when the country’s Liberal government, long weakened, is in disarray following the shock resignation of Chrystia Freeland as finance minister and deputy prime minister.

In fact, in her December resignation letter, Freeland placed the country’s response to Trump at the heart of her critique of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.

Among the many broadsides delivered to her former boss, the fact that Canada is ill-prepared to face the dire new threat of Trump’s second term was a recurring theme.

Trump wasted no time inserting himself into Canada’s internal affairs, calling Freeland “toxic” and continuing his running gag of referring to Trudeau as the governor of an American state rather than the leader of a sovereign nation.

The attacks are becoming routine, with Trump suggesting in another post that Canadians would “save massively on taxes and military protection” as the 51st state.

Economic and democratic decline

Whoever becomes prime minister in the weeks or months to come will have to figure out how to deal with Trump — and the existential threat he poses to Canada — in a much more effective manner than the Liberals have under Trudeau.

Trump is flagrantly disrespecting Canadian independence and, along with it, Canadian identity. He’s openly challenging the very idea of Canadian sovereignty. Canada must respond accordingly.

It can be hard to fully understand the nature and the extent of threats posed by someone so willing to flaunt respected political and diplomatic conventions. His annexation threats create a constant set of multifaceted challenges to Canada’s economic prosperity, democratic norms and sovereignty.

The economic dimension of his threat to Canada is now well-known. Trump’s proposed 25 per cent tariffs on all Canadian exports to the U.S. are going to be incredibly costly to both countries, given the integration of their economies. But given the size disparity between the two countries, the impact will be bigger in Canada.

The democratic threat is also clear. Trump has shown he regards democracy not as a crucial set of rules and norms, but as a set of obstacles to overcome.

He’s unable to admit defeat or even graciously accept victory.

His revenge tour has begun, with lawsuits against media outlets and even against a pollster whose data suggested Democrat Kamala Harris was pulling ahead during the late days of the U.S. election campaign.

Once back in the White House, Trump has promised to use public institutions to punish opponents. A partisan U.S. Supreme Court decision last year ensures that even if his own actions are criminal, he will remain immune from prosecution.

Trump’s disrespect of democratic institutions is corrosive and contagious. During his first term, experts sounded alarm bells about how he was linked to democratic decline around the world. If the U.S. president can openly challenge democratic norms, after all, what’s to stop other would-be demagogues from doing the same?

A second Trump administration is likely to continue such trends, and his willingness to intervene in Canadian politics is already causing shock waves north of the border.

A threat to Canadian sovereignty

Trump’s actions have repeatedly suggested he has no respect for those he views as powerless — and right now Canada fits the bill. He’s made it a running joke that Canada is not a real country, but just another American state. Nervously laughing off this threat doesn’t cut it as a response.

Canada has so far acted in a manner that makes it seem as though Trump has a point. Rather than pushing back by defending Canada’s strong record in managing its part of the border relationship, the government immediately promised more than $1 billion in new border spending. Canada’s leaders have failed to call out Trump’s threats as the bluster of a bully.

In the face of Trump’s tariff threats, Trudeau made a surprise trip to Florida to pay his respects to the president-elect and plead Canada’s case, rather than observing the normal protocol and waiting for a formal post-inauguration state visit. This made Trudeau appear more like a supplicant than a visiting head of government.

It’s helpful in this situation to think of Trump as a schoolyard bully demanding someone else do his homework — in this case, defend America’s borders. Such bullying doesn’t end when you give in to the bully, but only when it becomes clear you won’t.

Border protection is a core function of any state, and a responsibility of any American president. Trump’s demand that others do it for him is both a sign of weakness and an attempt to create a scapegoat should his efforts fail.

As with any bully, if you promise to do the work for him, you’ll just encourage additional torment. So when Trudeau promised to do more in exchange for an end to the bullying, he got a kick in the pants for his efforts as Trump began to taunt him about being the governor of the 51st American state.

The world is watching how Canada responds to the bully. If Canada hopes to enjoy the respect of its peers, it must show a willingness to fight for itself, its prosperity and its values. It must defend its sovereignty from those who refuse to respect it, and act assertively to maintain Canadian prosperity. That could mean a trade war.

Power imbalance

For more than a century, Canada and the U.S. have found ways to co-operate and prosper side by side despite the fact that the U.S. is a much more powerful nation. They’ve built alliances and agreements founded on shared norms, values and customs as part of a deep and multifaceted relationship.

None of that history seems to matter to Trump, and now American power seemingly matters more than Canadian sovereignty. This power imbalance is all the more acute given Canada’s dependence on the American economy and American military might.

But Canada is not powerless. Dependency works both ways, and the deep integration of the two countries’ economies makes the U.S. vulnerable as well. Shutting off power exports, as Ontario Premier Doug Ford suggests, is one course of action that would have an immediate and significant detrimental effect on the American economy. Ditto for petroleum. Energy is power in more ways than one.

The U.S. consumes millions of barrels of Canadian petroleum every day, and a tax on that fuel would be inflationary and ultimately unpopular with American voters.

Other countries stand to lose if the U.S. gets away with disrespecting Canadian sovereignty as well. If Trump refuses to respect Canadian sovereignty, no country is safe. Panama and Denmark can already attest to that.

Finding ways to creatively push back against such demands should be an imperative for any country that values its independence, and Canada needs to work with such allies.

Trump will soon be U.S. president again. But he is not and should not be treated as the president of Canada. Whoever leads Canada in the months to come has tools at their disposal to defend Canadian sovereignty, and they must be prepared to use them.

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Stewart Prest does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
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This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Disclosure information is available on the original site. Read the original article: https://theconversation.com/canadas-fight-with-trump-isnt-just-economic-its-existential-246619