Picking the NCAA men’s bracket: Michigan beats Duke for the national championship

There was a time when the NCAA men’s college basketball tournament was wildly unpredictable.

Hard as it may seem to believe, there was one season where a No. 4 seed, two No. 5 seeds and a No. 9 seed all reached the Final Four. And a year later, a No. 11 seed got to the national semifinals as well.

Ah, 2023 and 2024 feel so long ago.

Last year’s tournament, for those who love upsets, was a complete and utter dud. Excluding the First Four games, teams seeded No. 11 through No. 16 went 3-24. The regional finals had three No. 1 vs. No. 2 matchups, and the other was No. 1 vs. No. 3.

The result? For the first time since 2008, all four No. 1 seeds made the Final Four and Florida went on to capture the national championship.

This likely meant those who spend little time agonizing over their brackets — you know, the types who just pick the higher seeds the whole way through and fill the entire thing out in about a minute and a half — probably did well last year.

We have sad news to report: They might do well this year, too.

The top seeds this season are Florida, Duke, Michigan and Arizona. It would be a sensational Final Four if they all got to the national semifinals. But can history repeat itself and four No. 1 seeds get there for the second straight year?

Time to find out.

Key tips

— One of the oddest stat nuggets ever: No team seeded No. 5 has ever won the NBA title, the NCAA men’s title or the NCAA women’s title. In this field, St. John’s, Vanderbilt, Wisconsin and Texas Tech surely did not want to hear that. (Also, did the tournament committee even watch the Big East final between St. John’s and Connecticut?)

— We point this out every year, but as a general reminder: Teams with 10 or more losses coming into the tournament have gone on to win the title only three times (N.C. State in 1983, Villanova in 1985 and Kansas in 1988.) That stat alone would knock out about half of this year’s field.

— Watch the travel. It’s not easy to get ready for a first-round game on short notice. Those teams that have long, long trips (St. John’s to San Diego, UCLA to Philadelphia, Villanova to San Diego. etc., trips that all are just a bit shorter than Hawaii’s 2,600-mile flight to Portland for Round 1) might look a little rusty to start.

— Always root for the fun matchup. UConn vs. UCF in Round 2? For those who followed college football’s short-lived Civil ConFLiCT game (a totally made-up thing by UConn when it decided, for reasons that still puzzle basically everybody, that UCF was its football rival), how can you not want to see this matchup?

— The last preseason No. 1 team in the AP Top 25 to cut down the nets in the men’s tournament was North Carolina in 2009. Purdue was the preseason No. 1 this year, so … apologies to the Boilermakers, but history says what it says.

The Miami issues

If you’re Miami, you shouldn’t be happy right now. Doesn’t matter which Miami you are, either.

Miami (the Ohio one) gets a First Four game after going undefeated until its conference tournament. And Miami (the Florida one) is the “home” team … in St. Louis … against Missouri.

Of course, Miami was also the “road” team in the College Football Playoff title game in its home stadium against Indiana. So, it all evens out. Or something.

First round winners

East: Duke, TCU, St. John’s, Kansas, USF, Michigan State, UCF, UConn.

South: Florida, Clemson, McNeese, Nebraska, North Carolina, Penn (by far, our biggest upset pick), Texas A&M, Houston.

West: Arizona, Villanova, Wisconsin, Arkansas, BYU, Gonzaga, Miami, Purdue.

Midwest: Michigan, Saint Louis, Texas Tech, Alabama, Tennessee, Virginia, Santa Clara, Iowa State.

Second round winners

East: Duke, St. John’s, Michigan State, UConn.

South: Florida, Nebraska, North Carolina, Houston.

West: Arizona, Arkansas, BYU, Purdue.

Midwest: Michigan, Texas Tech, Virginia, Iowa State.

Regional finalists

East: Duke, Michigan State.

South: Florida, Houston.

West: Arizona, Purdue.

Midwest: Michigan, Virginia.

Final Four

Duke, Florida, Arizona, Michigan. All the top seeds get there, again.

Duke beats Florida. Michigan beats Arizona.

They played a classic last month and Duke won it. The Blue Devils beat Michigan for the 1992 national title as well. But this time, Go Blue over Blue Devils. Michigan wins it all.

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AP March Madness bracket: https://apnews.com/hub/ncaa-mens-bracket and coverage: https://apnews.com/hub/march-madness