Iran playing its hand

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This article was published 09/02/2010 (5746 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

TEL AVIV — Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s announcement that his country will begin enriching its stockpile of low-grade uranium to 20 per cent grade is not being taken very seriously in Israel.

Israeli scientists and scholars see the announcement as part of the gamesmanship that Ahmadinejad is playing with President Barack Obama and with other western leaders. They say this is not the first time that Ahmadinejad is making such a threat. It’s part of the bargaining in the Persian Bazaar at which Ahamdinejad has been such a good player.

“For Iran to produce 20 per cent enriched uranium would require a more advanced technology that Iran doesn’t possess,” said a former Israeli Mossad operative, who follows Iran’s nuclear development. “It would take Iran many more years to reach this capability.”

Indeed, a careful reading of Ahmadinejad’s instructions shows that Iran left the door open for more negotiations. “Iran would halt the enrichment process, if it receives the necessary fuel for its for its medical research facility from other sources,” said Ali Akbar Salehi, the head of Iran’s atomic energy organization.

Israeli officials revealed privately that in secret briefings in the last few months, CIA director Leon Panetta and Obama’s national security adviser, Gen. James Jones, told their Israeli counterparts that Iran is encountering many technical difficulties at its nuclear plants. Iran is definitely behind its own schedules and timetable, they said. Hence, the U.S. would not deviate from its intention to enforce more economic sanctions against the Iranian regime.

Ahmadinejad’s announcement on Sunday should also be taken against the background of this week’s celebrations to commemorate Shah Mohamed Reza Pahlavi’s downfall 31 years ago.

In the last few weeks, Iran was announcing almost every week the “successful launching” of various types of missiles, the “test-flying” of Iranian-made planes and other achievements of its military industry. Ahmadinejad is keen to show off the achievements of his regime in the fields of science and technology.

Since the shah was forced into exile and the Peacock Throne was taken over by Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the Islamic Republic organizes festivities all over the country that culminate on Feb. 11, when the shah left the country. This year, however, is different. Since the controversial parliamentary elections seven months ago, Iran is still on the boil and a place to watch.

Although no one can measure the intensity of the situation, one thing is sure. The emergence of a strong, but unorganized opposition, shook the foundations of Iran’s political landscape. When Khomeini took power in Feb. 1979, he built around him a new clerical elite that abolished all signs of secularism. However, since Khomeini died in 1989, power shifted gradually to a new military-security elite, from whose ranks Ahmadinejad emerged.

Today, Iran is totally controlled by the Revolutionary Guards and its armed youth militia, the Basij. Supreme leader Ali Khamenei had betrayed the clergy and threw himself into the hands of the new military-security elite.

Khamenei, however, was unaware to what extent the electronic revolution has affected the youth in his country. The computer, the cellphone, Twitter and facebook, became the agents of the new revolution that captured large segments of the youth and student corps. Since their political premiere in last June’s elections, Iran’s political life has changed. Although it is still difficult to evaluate their strength and their ability to bring change, the fact remains the opposition to Ahmadinejad is growing.

In the absence of other tools to express its anger, the opposition is using the official occasions to demonstrate against the regime. About a month ago, during the festivities of the Ashura, a Muslim-Shiite feast, the regime opened fire on the crowd and killed scores of demonstrators, including the nephew of the opposition leader, Mir Hussein Musavi.

In advance of the Feb. 11 celebrations, Khamenei two weeks ago approved the hanging of two demonstrators and threatened to execute more if the anti-regime demonstrations continue on Feb. 11.

It will be interesting this week to watch how cruel Khamenei and Ahmadinejad can be in their effort to continue holding power.

Sam Segev is the Free Press Mideast correspondent, based in Tel Aviv.