Ashton’s organizational prowess not enough in leadership race

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 08/03/2015 (3940 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

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On his second attempt to capture the NDP leadership, Steve Ashton got a stern reminder that confidence and optimism cannot, in the end, overcome basic political mathematics.

Just about everyone in the Manitoba NDP universe will tell you that Ashton, the veteran cabinet minister and MLA, is the party’s most effective organizer. He can sell memberships like nobody’s business. In fact, a lot of the reason why the NDP has an antiquated delegate system in its leadership is because so many in the party fear Ashton’s ability to overwhelm a one-member, one-vote system with new members.

And yet, Ashton’s great Achilles heel, and the thing that brought him down this weekend, is that all those new members he brings in are not, it would appear, committed party members.

When the first ballot was fully counted, Ashton ended up in third place behind Premier Greg Selinger and former cabinet minister Theresa Oswald. The margin was slim (just 73 votes) but in this tight three-way race, it was enough to leave him odd man out.

In the end, Ashton was undone by the fact that too many of his delegates did not fulfill their obligation to vote. Particularly in the north, where Ashton nearly ran the table for delegates, there was an alarming no-show rate.

For example, at the registration deadline, it appeared that as many as 30 Ashton delegates from The Pas had not sent in their mail-in ballots. In a race that was too close to call heading into the weekend, that was a fatal mistake.

It was not, however, all that surprising. Throughout the leadership campaign, there had been signs that the thousands of new members Ashton had signed up, and the hundreds of delegate spots that they helped generate, had a tenuous connection to the NDP.

Of note: in The Pas, where there were over 1,400 members, fewer than 70 actually showed up to vote. Across the 57 NDP riding associations, where Ashton easily outsold his opponents on memberships, average turnout for delegate selection was less than 50 per cent. In some ridings, it was less than 30 per cent.

No matter how you slice that, it’s a structural weakness that does not make for a winning strategy.

As noted in his speech, Ashton had hoped to position himself as the candidate of the middle ground — neither a failed leader (like Selinger) or a mutineer and assassin (like Oswald). He hoped to pull support from people who wanted a change in leadership but didn’t like the public uprising that forced the leadership crisis in the first place.

It was a sound strategy given the incredible hostility that exists between the Selinger and Oswald camps. But it was not enough to overcome an even more powerful, pervasive reality: New Democrats simply do not trust Steve Ashton.

His leadership ambitions have burned for many years. Even through the Gary Doer era, where no one entertained thoughts of coups or mutinies, Ashton was always seen as a constant rival who was ready to spring into action at a moment’s notice. He maintained a potent but parallel political organization within the NDP that at times would rear its head to muck around in riding nominations and other local matters.

In other words, it’s been known for some time that Ashton was already ready to compete for the leadership should the opportunity arise.

That meant that the actual leaders, Doer and then Selinger, have always kept him close to keep an eye on him, but limited him to cabinet positions of low to medium importance. He has held many jobs in cabinet, but was never given a true front-bench portfolio, proof of the fear he cultivated on the part of the other two leaders.

What lies ahead for Ashton? It’s hard to tell how he will fit into the plans for the ultimate winner. His organizational skills and influence throughout the north will mean he will undoubtedly be offered a role by the ultimate winner. And because of his indefatigable nature, he will accept.

Beyond that, the best handicappers know that should the winner today lose the April 2016 election, he or she will likely step down. And that means there is one more thing you can count on: Ashton for leader in 2016.

dan.lett@freepress.mb.ca