If Willy’s pay goes up, so must his performance

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 19/05/2015 (4086 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

If the Winnipeg Blue Bombers are going to employ a $400,000 quarterback in 2016, what should they expect as a precursor for 2015?

Drew Willy is said to be making around $260,000 this year, which as a starting pivot, puts him above only Montreal Alouette Jonathan Crompton. Fast-forward to 2016, though, and as it stands, he would surpass Henry Burris, Bo Levi Mitchell and Zach Collaros in terms of total-dollar compensation.

If the football team is open to compensating him at this next level, what does he need to accomplish this season to warrant a 53 per cent raise? Coming off a season where he threw for the third-most yards in the CFL, does he really need to improve that much to have the team foot a bill of more than $800K for 2016 and 2017? As dramatic an improvement as we witnessed at the pivot spot from 2013 to 2014, management needs to see that same gradient of achievement again, going from 2015 to 2016.

If you’re looking for a checklist of milestones to substantiate a pay hike, it always starts with wins and losses. In his first year as a starter, Willy took a team that had previously tied a franchise record for fewest wins in a season at three, and doubled that output by leading them to six wins (Robert Marve gets credit for the seventh win in Calgary). No matter what kind of numbers Willy puts up in 2015, what will count the most are the wins.

Whether the defence hands him a win or two or three, or whether a vastly improved running game turns him into a game manager for a few weeks, it matters not. The only thing that trumps the stats column is the wins column, and the number of times he steers the ship when those wins come to port. If Willy wins more games than he loses this season, and especially if he leads this team into the playoffs, this is the equivalent of a teller stamp on his deposit slip of 400-grand for 2016.

If the team continues to improve, but the win column does not outweigh the losses, and Willy leads the team to eight, or even nine wins, then this is when the statistics should come into play as part of the evaluation. Though Willy may have thrown for the third-most yards in 2014, his passer rating — which is the best indicator of a quarterback’s overall play, and takes into consideration touchdowns, interceptions, attempts, completions and yards — was more befitting of his rank in salary. Of the starters in 2014, only Burris had a lower passer rating on the season than Willy (83.9), and that had a lot to do with quarterbacking an expansion team, and his age. With only 22 passes on the year, even backup Marve had a higher passer rating of 85.4, though QB No. 2 Brian Brohm scored an abysmal 69 during his limited time under centre.

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The next measurable that needs to improve this season is the touchdown to interception ratio. Once again, the only other pivot than Willy that played extensive time in 2014 and threw more picks than touchdowns was Burris in Ottawa. The three highest-rated passers in the CFL last season all came close to the benchmark for this statistic, which is for every two touchdowns thrown, there should only be one interception. Those pivots were Ricky Ray, Mitchell and Collaros. It should also be noted Willy established himself almost exclusively as a pocket passer last year. It is not an unfair assessment to conclude that of all prospective starters in the league right now, outside of Ray, Willy is also the least mobile and least likely to tuck and run to evade a rush.

While the amount of work to be done by Willy to justify his 2016 price tag may seem vast and somewhat improbable, with the changes already made to this team in the off-season, much of the makeover and heavy lifting has already been done for him. If Willy is not being sacked 60-plus times this season, the gains to his passing prowess may very well be exponential. If he has a reliable and competent rushing attack and game plan to complement his aerial assault, he won’t have to force the ball downfield as much. And if his defence asserts itself as a factor in the grand scheme of things, these benchmarks, and this salary, just might be attainable after all.

Doug Brown, once a hard-hitting defensive lineman and frequently a hard-hitting columnist, appears Tuesdays in the Free Press.

Twitter: @DougBrown97