Blue Bombers face off-season math test

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This article was published 07/12/2015 (3593 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

It is the simplest, and hardest, of mathematical questions for the Winnipeg Football Club this off-season: how do you transform a 5-13 team into one that can win at least nine games when the CFL salary cap increases by only $50,000 and your starting quarterback is due a raise roughly three times that amount?

The answer will undoubtedly lie in addition by subtraction.

Before the Winnipeg Blue Bombers write their first franchise quarterback cheque to the order of Mr. Drew Willy, they will be doing some spring cleaning and trimming of investments that did not pay out the anticipated return.

With receipts in tow, expect the organization to be standing at the head of the returns-and-exchanges line at the department store for the near-$400,000 it spent on receiver Nick Moore, who produced only four touchdowns over the course of two seasons. When this organization spends that kind of money on a wideout, it expects Milton Stegall-type performances, not Milton Bradley games of chance.

When healthy, Moore was unquestionably the best receiver on the team, but if there was ever a player who needed an incentive-laden contract, basing rate of pay off performance and health, it is Moore.

The other major cash-saving measure sure to manifest itself before winter ends will be the release of everybody’s favourite angry francophone, Dominic Picard. While his spirit and aggressive nature was still evident in 2015, his body wasn’t near as willing. With Matthias Goossen (who the team announced Monday it had signed to a contract extension through 2018) filling in for him admirably down the stretch, expect Picard’s $200,000 annual compensation to also be off the books for the Blue and Gold in 2016.

So with two extraordinary salaries likely eliminated and a $50,000 salary cap increase — minus the raise due Willy — the CFL team will have some walking around money this off-season, probably in the $300,000 mark.

But what to buy, and where to spend?

While free-agent availability is sure to change before the market opens to all bidders Feb. 9, there is currently an unprecedented bumper crop of established talent in the field.

If the Blue Bombers’ focus last off-season was on improving the offensive line, hopefully, the good news this year is the realization that it doesn’t matter if you have Larry Allen, Erik Williams, Nate Newton, Mark Stepnoski and Mark Tuinei lining up for you (the 1994 Dallas Cowboys) if you don’t have an adequate protection scheme. And if the Bombers are going to overspend in any area, it should be on the offensive co-ordinator they bring in to keep Willy upright, as that salary will not count against the cap.

When a team finishes last in several statistical measures, on both offence and defence, it is difficult to determine which single positional upgrade will benefit it most. Yet, when it comes to the premium-only purchases exclusive to free agency, expect this team to focus on acquiring an elite-level receiver or two, maybe a monster for the middle of the defensive line, and/or a backup pivot that won’t write off the season if Willy gets winged again.

It is fun to imagine a thunder-and-thunder backfield of Jerome Messam and Cam Marshall (they could be nicknamed Doom and Boom) as a way to further augment the offensive line, but in free agency a franchise has to know the difference between want and need.

Reportedly, recruitment was initially difficult for this regime because players and coaches simply didn’t want to come to Winnipeg. Now that the franchise is entering its third year of relative stability — unless you’re a systems co-ordinator — this will be put to the test in 2016, as the Bombers will need to win big on more contested players than they lose.

But no matter what headline athletes are landed, the fortunes of this team in 2016 will inevitably live and die on the recruitment of unestablished (and thereby underpaid) players being brought in from the United States — a final and critical test of the true skills and abilities of this club’s scouting department.

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Doug Brown, once a hard-hitting defensive lineman and frequently a hard-hitting columnist, appears weekly in the Free Press.

Twitter: @DougBrown97