Jets have edge over Predators in goal and overall forward talent

Opinion

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 26/04/2018 (2723 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

Well, finally, they’re going to drop the darn puck and let the Winnipeg Jets and Nashville Predators get at it.

The six days of healing that the Jets earned by ousting the Minnesota Wild in five games looks like it’ll be worth the wait.

Of course, the Predators will have something to say about this.

Let’s take a look at the top two clubs in the National Hockey League and see it we can find something that will swing the series in one team’s favour.

The most important position in the playoffs features two of the three Vezina Trophy candidates in goalies Connor Hellebuyck and Pekka Rinne.

They were close in regular-season save percentage (Rinne .927, Hellebuyck .924). Hellebuyck’s .924 in the playoffs clobbers Rinne’s .909, but that’s a small sample against totally different opposition.

I prefer Hellebuyck’s style that requires less movement, depending instead on positioning while tracking the puck well.

While Rinne has a healthy edge in experience, over the years I’ve seen lots of “bad Rinne,” too. However, backup Juuse Saros posted a .925 in 26 games. The Jets’ backup situation has been a rotation due to the numerous injuries to Steve Mason.

It’s Hellebuyck’s mindset that gives me confidence his inexperience won’t factor into this. He’s consistently rebounded from a bad performance with a superb one — there haven’t been many poor ones, either.

When we look at defencemen, Nashville is considered by most to have an edge here, and that’s tough to argue.

Their top four is made up of Mattias Ekholm, Ryan Ellis, Roman Josi and Norris Trophy finalist P.K. Subban.

The latter, of course, is a target of boos from Jets fans every time he touches the puck in Winnipeg, and that will likely continue.

I know I used to love getting booed in the opposition’s barn, as it meant I had done something really good that hurt the home team.

Fans have the right to enjoy themselves in any respectable way, although if they really wanted to try to get inside Subban’s head, the building should go silent when he has the puck.

Heck, he might curl back around in his own zone, look up at the crowd with his palms turned up and ask, “What’s going on?”

Back to the more serious stuff. The Jets hit back at the Predators’ top four, starting with the excellent shutdown pairing of Josh Morrissey and Jacob Trouba. They’re both very capable of getting involved in the offence when required.

Dustin Byfuglien is a beast like no other, inflicting damage to the opposition in many ways. The likely addition of his trusted, long-term partner Toby Enstrom will be huge if he’s relatively healthy.

Joe Morrow has done a decent job filling in with Byfuglien, but there’s an elevated level to the Jets’ breakouts when the Swedish defenceman is in the lineup. Great at gap control, he usually keeps the opposition to the outside in harmless territory while defending.

His advanced numbers show he’s excellent at preventing shots on goal and scoring chances.

However, it’s hard to change the minds of people who prefer Ben Chiarot or Morrow over him.

Often referenced is the 2014-15 Winnipeg-Anaheim series (when Enstrom played hurt and lost some puck battles) but that’s in the past. The game has changed since then — just ask the current Ducks how their toughness helps them on the golf course.

The Jets’ top four will likely do things differently than Nashville’s top-two pairings. They just need to concentrate on what they excel at and get some help from their forwards when the Predators defencemen are jumping into the play.

The addition of Enstrom closes the gap that favours the Predators.

Both third pairings need sheltering, but some Tyler Myers offensive-zone wizardry would be most welcome.

The forward groups both have depth, but the Jets hold the edge in overall talent.

While the Predators are good down the middle, Winnipeg throws out Mark Scheifele and Paul Stastny as their top-two centres. Nashville answers with Ryan Johansen and Kyle Turris — it’s a clear edge to Winnipeg.

The same goes for Adam Lowry and Bryan Little over Nick Bonino and Mike Fisher.

The wingers offer a more convoluted story. The first lines match up pretty well, with Filip Forsberg bettering Jets rookie Kyle Connor while Jets captain Blake Wheeler conquers Viktor Arvidsson.

The second units go the Jets’ way, with Nikolaj Ehlers and Patrik Laine having an edge over Kevin Fiala and Craig Smith.

I’m calling the bottom-two wing units even, because of the uncertainty of lineups there for both teams.

There will be some line-matching involved, but I don’t expect the coaches to become a focus of this series.

Neither Nashville’s Peter Laviolette nor Winnipeg’s Paul Maurice is likely to stray far from what they usually do.

Make a tweak to systems and lines if needed, try to get the best matchups and roll from there.

The Jets had a better power play during the regular season, while the penalty-killing units were similar in success. There isn’t an even-strength number that swayed me one way or the other when it comes to this series.

I’m not into taking a five- or six-game playoff sample when facing a new opponent.

Winnipeg has a decided edge up front and Enstrom closes the gap on Nashville’s advantage defensively. Hellebuyck is every bit as good as Rinne, in my opinion, so I’m taking the Jets to win it.

Be prepared for some turbulence though — getting there won’t be easy.

Chosen ninth overall by the NHL’s St. Louis Blues and first overall by the WHA’s Houston Aeros in 1977, Scott Campbell has now been drafted by the Winnipeg Free Press to play a new style of game.

Twitter: @NHL_Campbell