Avalanche a legitimate threat to Jets, Preds in Central

Opinion

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 11/12/2018 (2461 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

Last season, from almost the very beginning of schedule, it was clear that there were two beasts in the Central division, and that eventually the Winnipeg Jets and Nashville Predators were going to lock horns in a playoff series.

The jockeying between the two teams to be the best team in the division was obvious whenever they met up in the regular season, giving us spectacular games each and every time, with tons of goals, physical play and a playoff-like atmosphere that made promises of an epic clash in the spring.

The second-round series that saw the two titans face off was almost everything we expected, with the Jets prevailing in a Game 7 that could have been more competitive, in an ideal world.

At the start of this season, the same scenario was expected to be something to look forward to, but the Jets and Predators are no longer the only contenders in the Central.

Last season the Colorado Avalanche were very much a one-note team; they were exceptionally dangerous off the rush, but were pretty strongly outplayed by their competition in essentially every other area of the game.

Their speed game and a Hart Trophy-worthy season from Nathan MacKinnon, not to mention a breakout year from Mikko Rantanen, were enough to propel them into the last wild-card spot in the Western Conference, and they gave the Predators a surprising amount of trouble in a first- round loss.

This year, as their young players have matured by another year, Jared Bednar’s team looks to be much stronger than last year’s edition.

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If the colours and logos didn’t make it obvious which team was which, and you looked at that trio of teams, more likely than not, the Avalanche would be the team that you would assume would be the most dangerous.

While the Predators have struggled with injuries to key players such as P.K. Subban, Kyle Turris and Viktor Arvidsson, they’ve had massive amounts of trouble controlling the passing game at both ends of the ice at even-strength, which happens to be the biggest strength that the Jets have offensively.

The Avalanche are still a team that loses the overall possession game, posting a 48.4 per cent Corsi at five-on-five, but in every other category Colorado is outplaying teams this year, especially when it gets to high-danger chances, where the Avs are one of the league’s better teams.

Nashville has once again relied on Pekka Rinne to bail out some underwhelming play early this season, and it has worked so far; he’s posted even better numbers than his Vezina-winning performance last season. But they’re a bit of a wild card with all the key injuries they’ve dealt with, and I’m not sure their performance thus far is representative of the team overall.

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Similarly, the Jets started out the season a little slow, and have been getting steadily better, so by the end of the season these numbers could look very different. And overall numbers can obfuscate matchups, as well. Using Corsica’s linemate tool, we can compare these teams line by line.

Looking at the teams this way, the Predators are a bit of a one-line team when it comes to Corsica’s expected-goals metric, with their second, third, and fourth lines all expected to score fewer than 50 per cent of the goals going forward, but this could be, in part, due to injuries.

The Jets look strong across the board except for their second line, which gets by on pure scoring ability from Patrik Laine and Kyle Connor, but hasn’t controlled play so far this season.

The Avalanche have a top line that has wildly outscored their expected performance this season, which could be a bit worrying, but considering the talent level of MacKinnon and Rantanen, it may not be a big deal.

The most important change for the Avalanche has been the play of their middle-six forwards, who have performed admirably so far this season, led by a resurgent season for Carl Soderberg, and another strong campaign from Alex Kerfoot.

Lots can change between now and the end of the year, but Kyle Turris missing time and Kevin Fiala playing like he’s missing has made the Predators’ second line exploitable, the Jets’ second line is dangerous but also poor defensively, and the Avalanche aren’t weak until you get down to the fourth line.

In all likelihood, everyone will still be looking forward to getting another Predators and Jets series in the second round, but whoever ends up drawing the Avalanche are no longer looking at an easy first-round matchup; that team is legitimate.