Bit less than the same for Liberals

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 14/09/2019 (2600 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

During election coverage on Tuesday, many commentators were asking why the provincial Liberals failed yet again to become a real contender for power in Manitoba. After all, the party had run what many saw as a solid campaign under new leader Dougald Lamont. Still, the result — 14 per cent of the popular vote, which yielded just three seats in the legislature — was not much different from the 2016 election.

The loss of the fourth seat it won in 2016 robbed the Liberals of official party status and the perks it brings. Both historical and contemporary factors played a part in what was, by any measure, another disappointing showing.

Manitoba Liberals have spent nearly all of the past five decades in a distant third-place position. Many factors contributed to this status: the political polarization that began with the first ever NDP victory in 1969; an urban-rural membership divide that caused the Liberals to shift between right and left policy positions; instability in the leadership role, with 11 leaders since 1969; the fluctuating popularity and political fortunes of the national Liberal party; and the simple plurality electoral system which “under-rewards” the Manitoba Liberals, whose voter support is thinly spread rather than territorially concentrated.

The cumulative effect of these factors has made it harder for the party to attract members, recruit credible candidates, raise money and match the spending of their opponents, especially on television advertising.

The lowest point for the Liberals came in the 1981 election, when they received 6.5 per cent of the popular vote and failed to elect a single MLA. The one occasion when a comeback seemed possible was in the 1988 election, after a surprise defeat of the budget of the NDP government — caused by the vote of a resentful government backbencher — led to a snap election and the resignation of Howard Pawley as party leader and premier.

At the time, the government was under attack for raising taxes and was entangled in scandals. Meanwhile, in Ottawa, there was a highly unpopular Progressive Conservative government led by Brian Mulroney. Sharon Carstairs, Manitoba’s Liberal leader since 1984, had the political savvy and skills to capitalize on this opportunity. In the 1988 election, the Liberals captured 20 seats and became the official Opposition.

Success was short-lived, however. In the next election, in 1990, the party fell back to seven seats and lost the role of the official Opposition to Gary Doer and the NDP. The Liberals then failed in six successive general elections to achieve official party status.

There was an opening for the party in the 2016 election, but with no campaign strategy, a weak leader and gimmicky policy announcements, the Liberals were held to just three MLAs. The Liberals finally achieved party recognition in the legislature after their new leader, Dougald Lamont, won a byelection in St. Boniface in July 2018.

In the early, low-key, low-turnout election of 2019, the Liberals ran a better campaign. With a flurry of policy promises, they campaigned to the left of centre, mainly by promising spending intended to stimulate the economy at a time when it seems to be slowing down. Banking on stronger economic growth to deliver increased revenues to government, they promised to balance the province’s books on almost the same schedule as the other parties.

The Liberals expected to benefit from better leadership this time. Despite it being his first provincewide campaign, Lamont performed well at the retail politics of selling himself and his party. There was no repeat of the mistakes by the leader that occurred in the 2016 election. To his credit, Lamont avoided nasty personal attacks on other leaders; instead, he remained civil throughout the campaign, including during the one televised debate at which Pallister and Kinew shouted over one another.

A flurry of policy announcements from the Liberals earned the party valuable media coverage, but during a sleepy summer campaign, few voters seemed to notice.

In the 2016 election, due to poor planning and mistakes, the Liberals ran only 51 candidates. In this election, the party had a full slate, including some recognizable public figures and some “paper” candidates listed just to fill out the roster.

Fairness in politics is often in the eye of the beholder. Due to the vagaries of the electoral system and perhaps the low turnout, the Liberals achieved essentially the same result as in 2016. However, in terms of leadership, ideas and organization, I think some progress was made. More progress on these fronts is required if the Liberals’ long-sought escape from third place is to be achieved. They’ll probably also need some political luck, in the form of mistakes by their opponents.

Paul G. Thomas is professor emeritus of political studies at the University of Manitoba.