Pessimistic about this year’s Blue Jays? Look back to 2015 for some optimism

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This article was published 05/07/2021 (1597 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

The third-place Blue Jays hit the halfway mark of the regular season over the weekend and the main thing standing in their way from contending is a beleaguered bullpen.

Manager Charlie Montoyo and company would potentially be in first place right now if it wasn’t for their underperforming relievers. Instead, the Jays find themselves 8 1/2 games back of Boston for the division lead heading into Monday night, and four back of a wild-card spot.

Those aren’t insurmountable deficits by any means. In 2015, the Jays were eight games back of first as late as July 28 before loading up at the deadline and going on a run. This year’s squad won’t follow a similar all-in approach, but some moves have already been made to upgrade the roster and more should be coming soon for a team on the rise.

The Jays’ biggest weakness, by far, has been the bullpen. Their relievers started the year strong but injuries to Kirby Yates, Julian Merryweather, Ryan Borucki and David Phelps eventually took their toll. Since May 20, the Jays ’pen ranks 24th out of 30 teams with a 4.84 ERA, their seven blown saves are tied for the eighth most and nobody has posted a lower Fangraph’s WAR than Toronto’s -0.6.

Things got so bad in June that for long stretches, closer Jordan Romano was the only reliable reliever. Since then, the performance has improved thanks in part to a soft spot of the schedule and the recent addition of Adam Cimber. Borucki should be returning soon, the constantly injured Merryweather supposedly is too, as is recently signed John Axford. All those additions should help, but the Jays are going to need even more to survive the rest of the way.

If the Jays can solve their issues in the bullpen before the trade deadline, there should be enough in place elsewhere to make some noise. The rotation hasn’t been great, but it’s been good enough, especially following the emergence of Ross Stripling and rookie Alek Manoah. The staff’s 4.01 ERA is about league average while its 406 2/3 innings ranks 21st. Another front-line piece would make the Jays a serious threat, but even if that doesn’t happen the group as assembled might have enough to play meaningful baseball in September.

The strength of this team remains its potent everyday lineup. As with any organization, there have been low points, but by and large the offence has lived up to its pre-season billing. Even without George Springer for almost the entire season, the Jays sit fourth in the majors with 423 runs despite playing in fewer games than any team ahead of them in that category.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is the main reason for that. This year has been a coming-out party of sorts for a guy who transitioned from former top prospect into one of the game’s best players. Guerrero, the league leader in almost every major offensive category, is having one of the best single seasons in franchise history and if it wasn’t for sensational two-way player Shohei Ohtani, he’d be running away as the early favourite for the AL MVP.

But there have been contributions beyond Guerrero as well. Marcus Semien has proven to be an astute one-year signing and he’s shaping up to be one of the top infielders available this winter. Despite a bout with COVID, Teoscar Hernandez has been batting around .300 for most of the year with an .809 OPS while Bo Bichette has appeared in every game amidst another fine season. When healthy, this might be the best lineup in baseball.

After former GM Alex Anthopoulos made a series of blockbuster deals in 2015 he provided three reasons why. One, the club’s positive run differential suggested they were a better team than the record indicated. Two, the Jays had already made it through the most difficult part of their schedule. And finally, New York and Boston were having down seasons and there was a rare window of opportunity atop a powerhouse division.

The Jays have all those things going for them again this year. Toronto has the third-best run differential in the AL at +73. Only the central-division leading White Sox and west-division leading Astros are better. The Jays also had one of the most difficult schedules in the majors during the first three months and have a much easier path the rest of the way.

This is a team that believes it has played better than the standings indicate, even if those involved don’t want to come right out and say it.

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“The win-loss record, we wish was different and we do have control over that,” Jays general manager Ross Atkins said. “It’s not just bad luck. We’ve missed some opportunities and some of it has been defence, some of it has been approach and some of it has been pitching . . . I think what matters is your record, but in the end I feel like we’re going to be a team that’s going to be contending, a team that’s improving and an organization that’s in great shape.”

The main difference between 2015 and now is that the Jays’ current window is much longer than it was six years ago. The core is only getting started, so while upgrades should be expected, the future isn’t going to be mortgaged to make a run when next season and beyond has the potential to be even more promising. This year’s version of David Price is unlikely to walk through the door any time soon, but other pieces will be.

All the Jays needed to do this year was hang around the periphery of contention long enough to justify another round of purchases at the deadline. That’s what happened and the front office responded by making its first trade at the end of June. More will be coming soon.

If not for the bullpen, the Jays would be a lot higher in the standings. The first half was good, but not good enough. With the right moves in the coming weeks, the second half should prove to be much better.

Gregor Chisholm is a Toronto-based baseball columnist for the Star. Follow him on Twitter: @GregorChisholm or reach him via email: gchisholm@thestar.ca