The Blue Jays gamble on pitcher Gunnar Hoglund with No. 19 pick after Tommy John surgery

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This article was published 11/07/2021 (1592 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

The Blue Jays’ system is loaded with position players, but before the young core can live up to the hype it’s going to need a lot of help on the mound. The front office might have found one of those missing pieces on Sunday night.

For the second time in three years, the Jays used their first pick of the draft on a college pitcher. In 2019, it was current No. 3 starter Alek Manoah out of West Virginia, and this year it was right-hander Gunnar Hoglund from the prestigious Ole Miss program.

Hoglund was well on his way to becoming a consensus top-10 pick in this year’s draft until he suffered an elbow injury in May. Tommy John surgery brought a premature end to his season, caused his stock to drop and put the Jays in position to reap the benefits of what they feel is a top talent with the 19th overall pick. If his elbow was healthy, Hoglund never would have been an option this late in round one.

“One of the main drivers was just how polished he is as a pitcher,” Jays director of amateur scouting Shane Farrell said of Hoglund. “The injury was just unfortunate timing. We feel like this is a very opportunistic pick for us as an organization, knowing the trend he was going on and (that he) had cemented himself as one of the better college pitchers … we were excited to get him where we did.”

The 21-year-old Hoglund was originally drafted by the Pirates with the 36th pick in 2018, but he never signed and opted for the NCAA. Three years later, he finished his collegiate career with a 10-5 record while posting a respectable 3.68 ERA across 154 innings. All but one of his 32 appearances came as a starter.

Once healthy, which won’t be until next spring at the earliest, Hoglund should move relatively quickly through the Jays’ system. In fact, he’s so polished that even with an extended absence FanGraphs predicts Hoglund will be one of the first pitchers in this year’s class to reach the majors. The repertoire includes a 92- to 95-m.p.h. fastball, an 84- to 86-m.p.h. slider and a changeup that was used sparingly in college but should become key in the next stage of his career.

The first round was a typically chaotic affair. Several teams with top-10 picks went off the board, opting for guys who can be signed to cheaper contracts so a chunk of their bonus pool allotment can be saved for later rounds. That appeared to play a role in high school shortstop Kahlil Watson, ranked No. 4 by MLB Pipeline, dropping all the way to Miami at pick 16.

The Jays benefitted from a similar situation a year ago when infielder Austin Martin practically fell into their laps at No. 5 despite talk of him being a first overall selection. With this year’s pick in the bottom half of round one, there wasn’t as much of a reward this time around, but there was still some top talent available when Farrell was put on the clock.

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If there’s any controversy to be found here it might be the Jays’ decision to pass on Texas righty Ty Madden (ranked No. 9 by MLB Pipeline) and Kansas State lefty Jordan Wicks (No. 16) for Hoglund. It’s a gamble that Farrell and company feel good about and one they can’t really afford to lose, because unlike previous years the Jays don’t have a lot to work with in this year’s draft.

The 19th pick was their lowest selection since shortstop Logan Warmoth was taken 22nd in 2017, and the team’s total bonus pool allotment of $5,775,900 (U.S.) for the first 10 rounds is the third lowest of any team. A big reason behind the low available funds is that the Jays forfeited this year’s second-round pick to sign outfielder George Springer as a free agent.

“He’s about six, seven weeks post-op, so it’s still fairly early,” Farrell said of Hoglund. “But everything has been positive post-operation. I’m not educated enough to get into the specifics of his timeline, but I know he is in a good place for how far he is out of surgery.”

Hoglund’s reconstructed elbow scared off a few teams, but not the Jays. This is a front office that knows a thing or two about injuries, and the executives apparently aren’t afraid of adding another name to the medical report. In their view, the benefits outweigh the risks.

Gregor Chisholm is a Toronto-based baseball columnist for the Star. Follow him on Twitter: @GregorChisholm or reach him via email: gchisholm@thestar.ca