Blue Jays Mailbag: Why replacing Charlie Montoyo isn’t happening anytime soon

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This article was published 17/08/2021 (1818 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

The Blue Jays are facing an uphill climb on their path to the post-season but if there’s one reason to be optimistic about a stretch run it can be found in their strength of schedule.

Manager Charlie Montoyo’s squad has one of the easiest schedules in baseball the rest of the way. Entering Tuesday night’s game against the Washington Nationals, the combined winning percentage of teams the Jays play the rest of the way sits at .494. Of all the clubs the Jays are chasing for the post-season, only the Boston Red Sox have an easier road at .491.

Eleven of the Jays’ next 15 games will be against teams with records below .500. Then, in early September, three of four series will be against post-season contenders Oakland, Tampa Bay and New York. The goal will be gaining ground during the soft part of the schedule and then making an even bigger move up the standings during those key September matchups.

The Jays clearly have a lot of work to do, but the season is far from over. With almost six weeks to go and 45 games left to play there is still a lot of time left but considering how well the other contenders are playing right now, the Jays can’t afford too many slip ups.

Let’s get to this week’s questions for the Blue Jays mailbag. As a friendly reminder, questions should be sent to bluejaysmailbag@gmail.com along with your first name and hometown, or by reaching out to me on Twitter @GregorChisholm. The following questions have been edited for length and grammar:

If the Jays grab a wild-card spot, at whose expense will it be? — Omair, Chicago

I’ve been saying all year that the Red Sox won’t make the post-season and I’m not going to change my tune now. Boston finally put an end to its extended slump with a recent sweep of the Baltimore Orioles, but this is still a flawed team with far too many questions in its starting rotation and bullpen to be considered a lock for October baseball. While the A’s, Jays and Yankees got better at the trade deadline, the Red Sox opted to mostly stick with the status quo, and I think that’s going to cost them.

The problem for the Jays is that the Yankees are the leading contender to leapfrog Boston. New York opened a three-game series at home vs. the Red Sox on Tuesday and the Bronx Bombers are playing some of their best baseball with a 13-4 record since July 30. The Jays need to leapfrog two of Oakland, New York and Boston, which is going to be a difficult task.

Should I buy tickets for the final week series vs. Yankees, or will the Jays likely be eliminated by then? — Terry, Prince Edward County

I look at it this way: I think the Jays are a better team than the Red Sox and the A’s. But are they that much better than Oakland that they can overcome a four-game deficit in the standings? If I had a crystal ball that knew the answer to that I would be a very rich man.

The expectation from this corner is that the race for the post-season will go down to the wire, just like it did in 2016 when the Jays didn’t clinch until the final day of the regular season. But as George Springer’s injury showed, the margin for error is small and it won’t take much to derail that prediction. So yes, I do think there’s a chance that will be a meaningful Yankees series but it’s not even close to being guaranteed.

Has Reese McGuire’s good play in place of the injured Danny Jansen made him a piece for the future or increased his stock to eventually be moved? — James T, Mitchell

I’m not convinced McGuire’s play has done either of those things. There was a lot of praise for McGuire earlier in the year, but he has really cooled off at the plate. Since the start of July, the 26-year-old is batting .194 with a .544 OPS, which are the kind of numbers Jansen was getting criticized for producing earlier in the year.

McGuire is a major-league-calibre catcher. He’s relatively solid defensively and there’s value in his patient approach at the plate. But he’s still much more likely to be viewed as a competent backup than a regular starter. Backups don’t usually net much in return so while it’s entirely possible McGuire will be flipped this off-season for a lottery-ticket reliever, he’s just as likely to stick around in a part-time role while the club waits on prospect Gabriel Moreno.

I don’t buy this Toronto playoff fantasy for 2021. If Rogers ownership believe this is a playoff team, wouldn’t the right decision be to remove Montoyo and get a veteran manager to push youngsters? Montoyo seems to be running circles managing that bullpen in Toronto. — @Darrell_Samuels, Mississauga

There is no scenario in which Rogers Communications would be that hands-on in the day-to-day operations of the Jays. The front-office gets approval for a budget and then has carte blanche to run the organization as it sees fit. The extent of Rogers involvement beyond that is signing president Mark Shapiro to contract extensions and one day searching for his replacement.

The only way Montoyo is getting fired is if he loses the confidence of GM Ross Atkins and I don’t see that happening any time soon. I understand that fans get frustrated by the decisions being made in the dugout, but it’s well documented that the Jays take a collaborative approach to in-game strategy. The front-office, in conjunction with the coaching staff map out a plan each day that includes everything from the lineup, to who needs rest and which relievers will be used in various scenarios.

There are very few decisions that Montoyo makes on his own without first gathering the input of others. I’m not saying Atkins and Montoyo will forever be tied together but under no scenario would the Jays make a change during a push for the post-season. Montoyo’s doing what the Jays want him to be doing.

Should the Jays sign Robbie Ray? How much would it cost for him to stay? — @Brotinus

It’s easy to sit here and say, of course the Jays should re-sign Ray. The Jays currently have one of the best rotations in baseball and if they manage to bring back Ray it means they will be returning with the core four of Hyun-Jin Ryu, Ray, Jose Berrios and Alek Manoah. What’s not to like about that?

The issue is that teams don’t make a habit out of writing blank cheques and the Jays will have a limit in how far they are willing to go to re-sign him. If Ray was open to a three-year deal, he should be signed immediately. Once he hits the open market, though, it’s entirely possible he’ll be able to get upwards of five on a long-term contract. That’s where things get tricky.

A good baseline for Ray’s contract is the two-year deal worth $38 million that Lance Lynn recently signed with the White Sox. The annual salary of $19 million sounds about right for guys with comparable numbers but Ray is four years younger and therefore will be aiming for a much longer-term deal. Of the Jays’ big pending free agents, Ray seems like the safer bet to return over Marcus Semien, but it’s going to be several months before we get an idea of how competitive the market will be.

Do you think Blue Jays did enough at the July deadline to bolster the team for the stretch run with Jose Berríos, Brad Hand, Joakim Soria, Adam Cimber, Corey Dickerson and Trevor Richards? The cost for rentals like Kris Bryant, Yan Gomes and Kendall Graveman didn’t look too prohibitive. Could they have added more? — Charlie, Toronto

I wasn’t among those who thought the Jays needed to add more offence. Adding someone like Bryant would have been an undeniable upgrade at third but this a team that is already capable of scoring a lot of runs so I’m not going to blame the front-office for deciding not to sacrifice organizational depth to make it even better.

The pitching side is a different story. The Jays bullpen still doesn’t seem to be quite good enough and every team could always use more quality arms. The Mariners were infatuated with Abraham Toro, who was acquired for Graveman, so it seems unlikely Santiago Espinal or Kevin Smith would have been enough to convince them to go in another direction. There weren’t a ton of great arms available, and the Jays did well to improve as much as they did. I think the front-office did what it needed to, I’m not going to criticize that, especially considering I thought Berríos was the best possible fit.

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Who do the Jays need to protect from Rule 5 draft in the off-season? I think Kevin Smith, but are there any others that could be attractive to the rebuilding clubs? — @SandyCarlyle, Toronto

There are currently nine players on MLB Pipeline’s top 30 Jays prospects who are eligible for this year’s Rule 5: Smith, IF Miguel Hiraldo, IF Leo Jimenez, RHP Eric Pardinho, RHP Joey Murray, OF Chavez Young, IF/OF Samad Taylor, RHP Curtis Taylor and RHP Bowden Francis.

Smith was eligible for last year’s Rule 5 as well, but he wasn’t picked. After putting up a slash line of .286/.371/.576 in 82 games so far this season at Buffalo, the Jays won’t be as fortunate this off-season. Smith either must be moved before the Rule 5 deadline or added to the 40-man roster. Hiraldo and Pardinho are interesting cases because of their ranked status but neither one had appeared above A-ball and seem unlikely candidates to stick on a big-league roster next season.

Murray is a name to keep an eye on here. He has been plagued with injuries but advanced to Double-A New Hampshire in 2019 and is turning 25 later this year. Taylor and his .911 OPS in 71 games for New Hampshire is logical candidate while Francis, who was recently acquired as part of the deal with Milwaukee for Rowdy Tellez, will also be exposed if left unprotected.

Gregor Chisholm is a Toronto-based baseball columnist for the Star. Follow him on Twitter: @GregorChisholm or reach him via email: gchisholm@thestar.ca