What will the Blue Jays do this off-season to become a post-season team? You might not like the answer

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This article was published 04/11/2021 (1464 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

Ross Atkins was the architect behind a team that finished two wins shy of securing a spot in the post-season. Now he must figure out a way to bridge that gap and help the Blue Jays take the next step.

Considering how good the Jays looked late in the year, 2021 appeared to be a missed opportunity for a team that had enough talent to make a deep playoff run. The year, however, was far from a failure as a young Jays squad began knocking on the post-season door.

Making the playoffs was the goal after an eventful trade deadline, but it wasn’t that long ago that 2022 was the more realistic time frame for contending. Next year figures to be post-season or bust for this emerging team.

Here’s a closer look at the pressing questions facing the Jays this off-season as they attempt to overtake the Tampa Bay Rays, Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees in the competitive American League East:

• Who should be re-signed to a long-term deal: Robbie Ray, Marcus Semien or both?

The Jays aren’t going to sign both guys, so get that out of your head right away. They should be able to afford both players next year but, with costs rising in the seasons that follow and as the young core inches closer toward free agency, there is less wiggle room down the road.

Ray fills a more obvious need because the Jays already have a lot of good hitters, what they need is more pitching. The problem is that Ray will get a massive contract this off-season. The Jays have the money to get a deal done, but it doesn’t mean they think he’ll be worth the cash.

Ray posted a mediocre 4.53 ERA from 2018-20 while experiencing a slew of command and mechanical issues, before having a career year under the tutelage of pitching coach Pete Walker. And, as a max-effort guy, there should be some concerns about what happens a few years from now when he starts to lose velocity. If his goal is to approach the five-year, $118 million (U.S.) deal handed out to Zack Wheeler in 2020, that might prove too rich for the Jays.

Semien recently hired super agent Scott Boras to represent him and he figures to land a long-term deal worth more than $100 million. His veteran influence was a stabilizing factor on an otherwise young team but, with more prospects on the way, a lengthy commitment seems unlikely here, too. The safer bet would be the Jays targeting impact players on short-term deals like they did last off-season with Ray and Semien.

• If Ray and Semien leave, who replaces them?

The pool of free-agent starters is quite a bit deeper than it was a year ago. Veteran Max Scherzer and Ray represent the top tier while there’s an impressive group of secondary guys, including Kevin Gausman, Marcus Stroman, Carlos Rodón and Eduardo Rodríguez.

Pitchers in line for shorter-term deals include Steven Matz, Clayton Kershaw, Alex Wood, Wade Miley and Collin McHugh. Keep a close eye on the bounceback candidates who likely will be seeking a one-year commitment: Justin Verlander, Noah Syndergaard, Jon Gray, Michael Pineda and Corey Kluber.

The replacement for Semien figures to be a third baseman, with free agent Kyle Seager representing a logical fit. This position is just as likely to be filled through trade, where some of the bigger names potentially available include Cleveland’s Jose Ramirez and Oakland’s Matt Chapman, or alternatively Ketel Marte as a middle infielder. If the Jays acquire a third baseman, Cavan Biggio and Santiago Espinal could split time at second. If they acquire a second baseman instead, third base would still have to be addressed.

• Is this the off-season to make a blockbuster trade?

It certainly seems like it. The Jays will be hesitant to hand out multiple long-term deals through free agency, out of fear it will hamper their ability to reach extensions with members of their young core. That should mean one-year deals get priority. If that’s not possible, then making a big trade seems like the next logical course of action.

The Jays parted with a pair of top prospects in Austin Martin and Simeon Woods Richardson to acquire Jose Berríos, but a lot of talent remains. With Gabriel Moreno advancing quickly, catcher Alejandro Kirk could be used as trade bait. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. also should expect to see his name pop up in trade rumours and the same could be said for Nate Pearson. Lower-level prospects also remain up for grabs.

A big trade makes sense because it would allow the Jays to acquire top-end players without having to pay them quite as much as they would earn through free agency and the term wouldn’t be as long either.

• What about the bullpen?

If there’s one thing that became obvious during the post-season, it’s that the Jays still don’t have enough talent in the bullpen to hang with the top teams. There’s a solid base to work from with Jordan Romano, Tim Mayza, Adam Cimber and Trevor Richards forming the back four, but additional depth is required.

The good news for the Jays is that they already have an effective closer in Romano, so they don’t need to pay a premium for saves. What they need are more high-velocity arms that generate a lot of swings and misses, relievers who can be used to help the starters get out of jams and eat up the middle innings.

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As Atkins demonstrated in his mid-season deals for Cimber and Richards, those pitchers can usually be found on the cheap. The challenge is picking the right guys to bet on, something the Jays failed to do this past season in their acquisitions of Tyler Chatwood, David Phelps, Brad Hand and Joakim Soria.

• Who are the extension candidates and who gets first dibs on a deal?

The better question might be, who isn’t a candidate for an extension? The Jays have a slew of young players who remain under club control for the next few years and at some point, the organization will have to think long and hard about locking them up long term.

Berríos gets top priority because he will be a free agent at the end of 2022. Teoscar Hernández, who will hit the open market after 2023, is next, but it seems unlikely the Jays would commit to him long term because his position as a corner outfielder is much easier to fill than the other areas of need.

Then there’s obviously Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette. Ideally, the Jays would buy out at least a couple of their free agent years with a long-term deal that also covers arbitration. Paying them more money up front would also lessen the financial burden as they get closer to big paydays. None of these deals figures to happen before the next CBA and, with so much work to do elsewhere, there’s a good chance serious talks will be put off another year.

Gregor Chisholm is a Toronto-based baseball columnist for the Star. Follow him on Twitter: @GregorChisholm or reach him via email: gchisholm@thestar.ca