Left-hander Yusei Kikuchi is a $36-million project and the Blue Jays see the upside

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This article was published 15/03/2022 (1612 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

DUNEDIN Fla.—The Blue Jays didn’t hand Yusei Kikuchi a three-year, $36-million (U.S.) contract because of what he did in the past. If they did, it would be an overpay. They gave it to him because of what he can do in the future.

Kikuchi, who was an accomplished left-hander in Japan’s Pacific League prior to arriving in North America at age 27, is coming off three disappointing seasons with the Seattle Mariners. There were glimpses of greatness, followed by extended periods of mediocrity. That’s not something teams look for when handing out long-term deals, but it didn’t scare the Jays away because they have some ideas on how he can be fixed.

It’s a high-risk, high-reward gamble and one that wouldn’t make sense if Kikuchi was being counted for the front or middle of the Jays’ rotation. But slotted behind an already capable group of José Berríos, Kevin Gausman, Alek Manoah and Hyun-Jin Ryu, his presence raises the Jays’ ceiling without having a negative impact on their floor.

“He was an all-star,” Jays pitching coach Pete Walker said. “He was doing some tremendous things and he’s got a tremendous fastball. Good split, good breaking ball.

“We have some ideas and some rationale behind our thoughts. But, right now, I want to get him here, get him comfortable, get him throwing and then maybe give our two cents.”

During the first half of last year, Kikuchi posted a 3.48 ERA while holding opponents to a .645 on-base plus slugging percentage. After the all-star break those numbers regressed to a 5.98 ERA and a horrendous .906 OPS. Things got so bad that only one of his September starts lasted more than three innings.

There are a few explanations. The spin rate on Kikuchi’s fastball, according to Fangraphs, dropped from 2,328 rotations per minute to 2,142 around the same time that MLB implemented a ban on the use of foreign substances. That led to a decreased vertical drop while his swing and miss fell by more than five per cent.

If foreign substances played a role, as they did for a lot of pitchers throughout baseball, that’s concerning because it’s a problem that isn’t easily fixed. But there are other issues that should be ironed out that could turn Kikuchi into the pitcher he was in Japan instead of the one he became in Seattle.

The release point on Kikuchi’s fastballs dropped by half an inch after the all-star break, according to Baseball Savant. The ball started leaving his hand at different points, depending on whether he was throwing a fastball or an off-speed pitch. That leads to tipping pitches and can also cause problems with command.

The Jays might also want to refine his pitch usage. Kikuchi’s cut fastball caused most of his issues last year, with opponents batting .276 with a .557 slugging percentage compared to .209 with a .419 slugging percentage on his four-seamer. The slider and changeup were his most effective pitches yet, even when combined, Kikuchi threw them less than his cutter. One remedy would be to limit the number of cutters and use his secondary pitches more often while letting his 95.1-m.p.h. four-seam fastball do the heavy lifting. It appears those conversations have already started taking place.

“(Walker) mentioned that he had been studying me for a little bit now,” Kikuchi said, through an interpreter. “We talked about pitch usage and the catcher setup, ways to help myself become more successful. We haven’t gotten into deep conversations yet but those are some of the things we’ve talked about so far.”

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There’s no guarantee this will work out, but the Jays have done well with reclamation projects before, especially under the tutelage of Walker. This time they just happened to pick a guy who required a longer-term commitment than a one-year deal. A couple of seasons from now, this contract could be viewed as a bust, but there’s a chance it will turn into a bargain like it did with J.A. Happ, who signed an identical deal prior to the 2016 season.

When teams start gambling on fifth starters, it’s a clear indication they’re doing well elsewhere on the roster. The Jays possess a potent top starting four and have one of the deepest staffs in baseball, with Ross Stripling, Nate Pearson, Thomas Hatch and Anthony Kay behind Kikuchi.

On paper, this is the best staff the Jays have had since 2016 when Aaron Sanchez won the ERA title and Happ was a 20-game winner while Marcus Stroman, Marco Estrada and R.A. Dickey rounded out the staff. When combined with an offence that should be among the best in the majors, especially if another piece is added before opening day, the Jays are shaping up as one of the teams to beat.

“There are a couple things that are exceptionally important to us,” Jays GM Ross Atkins said. “It’s dependability, reliability, durability, that being one thing in a starting pitcher. The other one being athleticism. We feel with those things combined, that you can continue to improve. We’ve seen that happen throughout the game, not just with the Blue Jays. Those are things José Berríos has, Kevin Gausman has, obviously Yusei Kikuchi has. We’re excited about those attributes.”

Gregor Chisholm is a Toronto-based baseball columnist for the Star. Follow him on Twitter: @GregorChisholm or reach him via email: gchisholm@thestar.ca