Women’s protests rattle Iran’s theocracy

Opinion

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This article was published 03/10/2022 (1069 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

‘This confrontation between the women of the country and the regime is the oldest, most enduring standoff in Iran. And I think the women are winning.” Those were the words of Iranian American author Roya Hakakian in a recent interview with The Atlantic, after weeks of demonstrations led by women rejecting hardline edicts imposed by Iran’s religious government have grown into a broad condemnation of the country’s ultraconservative leadership.

Fierce protests in more than 85 cities across all of Iran’s 31 provinces erupted following the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini after she was detained on Sept. 13 by Iran’s morality police, for allegedly not donning her hijab properly — a violation of the country’s draconian dress code for women.

Three days later, a state-run news agency announced that Amini — a relatable, aspiring student from a small town in Iran’s northwest travelling to see relatives in the capital Tehran — slipped into a coma while in custody and died in hospital from a heart attack, according to police.

Other women imprisoned along with Amini have said she was severely beaten by police during her arrest and transport to a notorious re-education facility. Medical records and CT scans leaked to an independent UK-based Iranian news outlet also show Amini — who her family says had no pre-existing health conditions — at some point suffered a skull fracture and other symptoms consistent with a traumatic brain injury.

Subsequent protests have featured mass public burning of headscarves and razing of some government offices, alongside calls for a nationwide strike, greater social freedoms and regime change.

One of the government’s initial responses was to enact partial internet blackouts and to throttle down access to social media sites. Iranian security forces have also resorted to using tear gas, metal clubs and live ammunition to disperse crowds that state media and Iranian officials have denounced as “hypocrites,” “seditionists” and “thugs” linked to “foreign enemies.”

Dozens of protesters have been killed and thousands of others have been injured or jailed. Meanwhile, pro-government organizers have rallied their followers for state-sponsored marches of their own, calling protesters “Israel’s soldiers.”

Iran’s hardline President Ebrahim Raisi has vowed to “deal decisively” with the unrest, while also ordering a probe into Amini’s death and claiming his government respects freedom of expression. But challenges to the legitimacy of the Iranian regime under 83-year-old Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei have been building for years — and for reasons that can’t be solved at gunpoint.

Iran’s population is well educated compared to others in the Middle East: the proportion of adults with post-secondary education is on par with the U.S., the majority of them women. But the country is being prevented from benefiting from these collective skills and knowledge because of the rigid means of control exercised by its dogmatic political class — in power for more than four decades — which has left Iran mired in economic malaise.

Aside from citizens being clearly enraged by having their freedoms dictated to them by an aging circle of Islamist clerics, the unyielding mindset of Iran’s rulers has resulted in an inability or unwillingness to find common ground on a nuclear deal that could end punishing sanctions, an inefficient bunker economy that is producing environmental catastrophe at home and a GDP per capita that since 2012 has plummeted from US$8,500 to US$2,750.

But instead of embracing pragmatic compromise, the Iranian regime has sought to sustain itself through doubling down on abusive population-control measures and deepening ties with China and Russia, largely through selling discounted oil to the former and armed military drones to the latter.

For some, including the author Roya Hakakian, this firestorm of discontent seems different from previous times — a tipping point finally reached on the back of a women’s movement that could precipitate a much-desired cultural and political revolution.

Others are less optimistic. They argue the gravity of the current moment may be overblown thanks to an intense but ultimately fleeting international media spotlight. And were the current regime to be brought to its knees, there’s no guarantee its downfall would lead to a more prosperous, benevolent Iran — in the same way the Arab Spring a decade ago ultimately ushered in a ruthless military dictatorship in Egypt and sparked horrifying civil wars in Libya and Syria.

And yet, no matter what comes of these demonstrations, Iran’s status quo seems unsustainable for much longer. Where it goes from here is anyone’s guess. But in the meantime, women in Iran will continue to show the rest of the world what true courage looks like.

Kyle Hiebert is a Winnipeg-based researcher and analyst, and former deputy editor of the Africa Conflict Monitor.