Stefanson faces risky choices

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 01/11/2022 (1395 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

‘So, are you ready for another election?”

I’ve been asked that question a lot lately during conversations with former colleagues at the Manitoba legislature. They tell me they haven’t seen or heard concrete evidence the Stefanson government is about to call a general election, but there are lots of rumours in “the building” and it feels like something’s brewing.

Last week, fuel was added to the election fire when this newspaper reported Premier Heather Stefanson refused to rule out an early election call. The report (Manitoba premier says decision yet to be made on timing of next election, Oct. 25) quoted Stefanson as saying, “I will commit to having an election on or before that date. … There’s lots of speculation, different things out there that are being said. But that’s a decision that we will make as a government moving forward.”

The premier could have doused the election speculation by saying that the next general election will be held on Oct. 3 of next year, in accordance with Manitoba’s fixed-date election law. She didn’t do that, however — a signal the provincial election will likely occur sometime before the fixed date.

Could it be called in the next few days or weeks, as the rumours suggest? Let’s consider some of the factors Stefanson is likely weighing, both for and against dropping the writ almost a year before the law requires her to.

Let’s start with some reasons why she shouldn’t call an early election. First, her Progressive Conservative government has trailed the New Democrats in opinion polls for almost two years. Just six weeks ago, Probe Research’s quarterly poll found the Tories trail the NDP by a 44-37 margin provincewide, and that the NDP had a massive 52-25 lead over the Tories in seat-rich Winnipeg.

Based on those numbers, it is almost certain the Stefanson government would be soundly defeated if an election were called now.

Second, as the above-mentioned report indicated, “There has been no evidence so far of a flurry of pre-election activities in the Tory camp. The party is only now starting the nomination process to field candidates in the province’s 57 constituencies.”

In other words, they aren’t even close to being ready for an election. It’s still not clear how many caucus members won’t be seeking re-election, and it will be very difficult to find credible candidates for ridings not currently held by the Tories.

Third, it will be just as difficult to find reliable campaign volunteers just weeks after municipal and school board elections across the province. Many of those who would normally work on provincial campaigns are burned out. It’s even harder to find volunteers to work on a campaign during the winter, especially in the weeks before and after Christmas.

Those are just three big reasons that should cause Stefanson to pump the brakes on the election speculation, but there are a few reasons why she may decide now is the right time to drop the writ.

First, the poll numbers are bad now, but they could be even worse in 2023. Inflation is hitting Manitobans hard and there is a recession coming. With another deadly COVID-19 wave looming, our health-care system will be under even greater strain. Calling an election soon could avoid the political impact of all that bad news that may be just over the horizon.

Second, elections cost lots of money, and the Tories currently have more cash in the bank than the NDP. Given the NDP’s relative popularity, however, that advantage may not exist several months from now.

Third, the NDP is less prepared for an election call today than it will be in six months. Calling an election now could save some Tory-held ridings that would otherwise be vulnerable to well-organized NDP campaigns.

Heather Stefanson has a tough choice to make. Both options — going to the polls now, or later — come with dangerous risks for her government and caucus.

She must discern whether there is a better chance of being re-elected weeks from now or months from now. That determination will not be a matter of mathematical certainty, but rather a gut feeling. A leap of faith.

We should know her answer in the next couple of weeks.

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