Trudeau Liberals lose traction in Manitoba: poll

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This article was published 16/03/2023 (1174 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

A poll shows support for Justin Trudeau’s Liberals in Manitoba has shifted to the Conservatives and New Democrats.

In Winnipeg, which has eight of the province’s 14 seats, the poll shows a virtual tie between the three major parties.

The Angus Reid Institute poll shows the Conservatives are the choice of 43 per cent of decided and leaning voters in Manitoba, up three per cent from the last poll, taken in September.

The Liberals have lost six per cent support, to 25 per cent, while NDP support has gone up by six per cent.

The right-wing People’s Party of Canada dropped to two per cent from four per cent last September.

Paul Thomas, a professor emeritus of political studies at the University of Manitoba, said the numbers aren’t out of whack.

“It has been a tough time for Trudeau and the Liberals. Most of the media attention is on Trudeau with the government’s performance. He is carrying the load for the Liberal party so it is not surprising they have slipped in the estimation of the public.”

Thomas said although the Tories are in the lead, party leader Pierre Poilievre hasn’t caught on fire with voters.

“When he has a particularly good zinger, people say ‘I’m unhappy with Trudeau and I now realize I’m even more unhappy with him.’”

In Winnipeg, the Conservatives and the NDP are tied at 32 per cent, the Liberals are at 28 per cent, the Green party at four per cent, PPC at three per cent. The margin of error, for a sample size of 284 people, is plus or minus six per cent.

Angus Reid president Shachi Kurl said it’s not unusual for a major city in the country to have a three-way tie.

“In Manitoba, some of this will be parallels based on the political situation there,” Kurl said.

“It’s ahead of an election in Manitoba and we might see a bump for the NDP federally because the provincial NDP look like they will be taking the place of Premier (Heather) Stefanson. That can have an impact.”

Kurl, noting the national poll numbers for federal vote intention are at 35 per cent for the Conservative party, 29 per cent for the Liberals, 20 per cent for the NDP, eight per cent for the Bloc Quebecois, and four per cent for the PPC, said it shows “there is the fatigue factor.

“There is less enthusiasm and a malaise for the federal Liberals. They still have the most seats, but gone are the days of a very strong Liberal presence in Manitoba like there was in the ’80s and ’90s.”

The poll surveyed a representative randomized sample of 4,899 Canadians who are members of the Angus Reid Forum. There were 462 surveyed in Manitoba and 284 in Winnipeg. The national poll has a margin of error of plus or minus one percentage, 19 times out of 20.

kevin.rollason@freepress.mb.ca