A vision for 2050 in Winnipeg

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 31/07/2023 (930 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

I was recently on the west coast visiting family. You could not pay me enough to live in Vancouver. This, despite the fact when I completed my education at UBC some 50 years ago, I thought Vancouver was nirvana.

No longer. I found the city claustrophobic, dense with traffic, and filled with manic drivers. Everywhere new residential towers loom, cutting out the view of the mountains. I can easily imagine that in the depths of winter, many areas of the city resemble the dystopian opening scenes of Blade Runner.

This visit caused me to reflect on Winnipeg’s future. I am becoming more optimistic that, after being in the demographic and economic doldrums for the last 50 years, Winnipeg could become one of North America’s leading metropolitan centres… provided we make smart investments and enact wise policy.

Maintaining low housing costs relative to other cities is a primary propellent to make Winnipeg a major North American metropolis over the next 25 years. Maximizing this advantage will require coherent and sustained policy focus… something that challenges governments.

The federal government’s policy of increasing immigration rates will raise pressure on housing prices. Some are already raising the alarm that Canada will not be able to accommodate new immigrants. Pictures of asylum seekers sleeping on Toronto streets are a harbinger of future housing shortages.

This creates an opportunity for Winnipeg to attract more people, provided that relative to other large centres we maintain lower prices than elsewhere. We need to build more housing.

To that end, the recent court ruling that certain municipal officials had committed malfeasance by deliberately delaying the approval of Fulton Grove is salutary. Initiation of this residential development which could add over 7,000 residential units will validate the expenditure on the bus rapid transitway connecting downtown with the University of Manitoba and its technology park.

However, the development process in Winnipeg remains sclerotic. Aside from bureaucratic delay, NIMBYS seem ever ready to pounce on any proposal to increase density.

Like any homeowner I must confess to NIMBY tendencies. The years paying off a mortgage means I remain vigilant about developments around me — real or perceived — that may affect the value of my home. And as a landowner, restricting new construction means the value of my home rises ever faster.

However public policy must balance competing interests. Some of the recent opposition to proposed developments is bizarre. The residents on Shaftesbury opposed to a new condominium enjoin drivers passing by to “save our parks.” The fact they live within walking distance of Assiniboine Forest and Assiniboine Park make their objections ridiculous.

Aside from streamlining development regulations and keeping the broader public good in focus in managing local opposition to development, a robust housing policy could be more dispassionate about some city owned land. Recently the city received a report on repurposing golf courses which suggested homeless shelters, walking/cycling paths, and of course green space. The goal seems to have been to retain their use as golf courses but also support other uses.

I would simply sell the 10 city-owned golf courses. I never understood why a municipality is in the golf business. A golf management company may believe it can make money by purchasing one or even all the courses, but I suspect most would become residential development. All are on prime land that could support many new housing units.

A final policy to consider is up-zoning. In this scenario new land such as the golf courses may be designated as R3 (multi-family) rather than R1 (single family detached). The idea is that one would not artificially constrain residential development, but let the market dictate the appropriate residential use.

By now the eco-NIMBYs are in full umbrage. But I certainly do not want to “pave paradise and put up a parking lot.” I use Assiniboine Park and Forest every day and the value of open space and parks to Winnipeg is apparent every summer evening with cricket, family picnics, and dog-walkers out in full force.

My goal in this article is simple. The City of Winnipeg projects a Winnipeg population of one million by 2050. By accelerating our housing development, we will be able to attract new immigrants. More importantly will also be able house the increasing numbers of First Nations people who will migrate away from impoverished remote reserves to seek their fortune in the city. Currently about 40 per cent of all Status Indians live in urban areas; this number is bound to grow rapidly, and they represent an untapped natural resource to support Manitoba’s future.

With a smart land use and transportation plan, we could get Winnipeg’s population to two million in 25 years. Then maybe Taylor Swift will include us on her concert tours.

Gregory Mason is an associate professor of economics at the University of Manitoba.