As ‘phony war’ ends, election campaign begins in Manitoba

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This article was published 04/09/2023 (777 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

Let the races begin.

Premier Heather Stefanson will visit Lt.-Gov. Anita Neville Tuesday to dissolve the Manitoba Legislative Assembly and issue the writs of election, marking the official start of campaign mode and the countdown to the Oct. 3 election.

“Until now, it’s been kind of a phony war with parties making campaign statements and Heather Stefanson sort of punching back in social media,” veteran political analyst Christopher Adams said. “After Labour Day, things really heat up.”

There are 57 seats up for grabs in what is expected to be a tight, bitter battle for control of the legislature, as the province’s first woman to serve as premier tries to persuade voters to give the Progressive Conservatives a third term in office.

And after seven years in opposition railing against Tory policy and legislation, NDP Leader Wab Kinew — who is vying to be the first First Nations premier of Manitoba — represents the biggest obstacle facing the PCs as they try to hold on to power.

Meantime, the Dougald Lamont-led Manitoba Liberals are fighting for official party status and greater political sway on Broadway.

At the end of the 42nd legislature on June 1, the PCs held 35 seats to the NDP’s 18 and the Liberals counted three. Former finance minister Cameron Friesen’s Morden-Winkler seat has been vacant since his resignation in February.

“It’s a short election — it’s one month of real battle,” said Adams, a political studies professor at the University of Manitoba.

With polls showing Stefanson’s Tories running neck-and-neck with the NDP in Manitoba — but trailing significantly in seat-rich Winnipeg — and Kinew poised to rise to the premier’s office, the electorate will be motivated to vote, Adams said.

“If people hate the NDP, or if people hate the PCs, they’ll be driven to turn out to vote and maybe strategically vote,” he said.

“The common wisdom is when you’re in a battle in which there might be a changeover of government, there’s sometimes an increase in turnout.”

In the 2016 election, when the governing New Democrats were floundering under premier Greg Selinger, turnout was 57 per cent. When his successor, PC premier Brian Pallister, was leading in the polls and called an early election in 2019, turnout dipped to 55 per cent.

The three main parties say they’ll have a full slate of candidates door-knocking over the 28-day campaign.

As of Friday, the NDP had 56 candidates registered with Elections Manitoba, with Kinew’s nomination to come. The PCs registered 55 candidates, followed by the Liberals, with 35. The Green Party of Manitoba has 13 candidates, thus far.

Just 21 Progressive Conservative MLAs are seeking re-election. In the past year, 14 occupants of the government benches opted to retire, exit political life or pursue public office at other levels of government. All NDP and Liberal incumbents are running for re-election.

The fiercest contests are expected to play out in suburban Winnipeg, where several Tory MLAs are vulnerable, particularly in the south part of the city, U of M political studies professor Royce Koop said.

“Those are the voters that are going to make or break it for one of the parties,” Koop said.

He agreed the election could be a close one and parties will have to focus their resources on a relatively small number of seats that are going to be highly competitive.

“Southdale — that’s almost the biggest race of them all,” he said.

Health Minister Audrey Gordon has represented the riding since 2019. She is being challenged by the NDP’s Renee Cable and Liberal candidate Robert-Falcon Ouellette.

The Fort Richmond, Riel, Seine River and Rossmere ridings are all in play; outside the city, Dauphin may also produce a tight race, Koop said, adding most NDP incumbents are in safe seats.

“Unless the NDP campaign totally face plants, they’re on the offence right now,” Koop said.

Both the New Democrats and the Liberals were on the campaign trail early, making numerous, multimillion-dollar platform commitments throughout August.

Kinew used the head start to announce a $500 million plan to add workers to the health-care system and pledged to spend up to $450 million to reopen three Winnipeg emergency departments closed by the Tories in a controversial health consolidation plan.

He’s also branded the NDP as tough-on-crime and proposed policy changes to address the problem’s root causes. The party committed to work within the fiscal framework of the PCs’ 2023 budget while promising a provincial gas-tax holiday and a one-year freeze on electricity rates.

Lamont has so far committed to introduce ranked ballots in provincial elections, establish a same-day housing program for people who are unsheltered, create an independent business development bank and end health-care staffing shortages.

The Tories, for their part, have promised to fight the federal carbon tax on natural gas in court and strengthen parental rights under the Public Schools Act.

The party also launched attacks on the NDP and public-sector unions on social media for bitter strikes at Liquor Marts and Manitoba Public Insurance.

The campaigns were reluctant to reveal their plans to mark the first official week on the hustings.

“Our team is running to lead the government in Manitoba. We put in the work over the years, we have a strong team, very qualified and energetic candidates right across Manitoba,” Kinew said Friday at a campaign announcement.

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Lamont said his team will waste no time hitting the streets and knocking on doors and the party’s full platform will be released next week.

PC spokesperson and outgoing McPhillips MLA Shannon Martin said the party is excited to start campaigning and outline its plans to “keep our health-care system on the road to recovery, fight violent crime and create jobs, growth and opportunities.”

“Over the last four years, our PC government has confronted some of the biggest challenges in Manitoba’s history, and we have delivered results for Manitobans,” Martin said in a statement.

danielle.dasilva@freepress.mb.ca

carol.sanders@freepress.mb.ca

Carol Sanders
Legislature reporter

Carol Sanders is a reporter at the Free Press legislature bureau. The former general assignment reporter and copy editor joined the paper in 1997. Read more about Carol.

Every piece of reporting Carol produces is reviewed by an editing team before it is posted online or published in print — part of the Free Press‘s tradition, since 1872, of producing reliable independent journalism. Read more about Free Press’s history and mandate, and learn how our newsroom operates.