Desperate decisions — for survival

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This article was published 05/09/2023 (820 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

While many may regard the strategy as political suicide, it may actually be a deeply cynical — and potentially effective — scheme to harvest much-needed votes.

Over the past several weeks, Progressive Conservative Party leader Heather Stefanson has made a number of announcements that have confused political observers throughout the province. Two positions stand out in particular because they each appear to further endanger the Tories’ re-election hopes.

The first is Stefanson’s unwillingness to support efforts to search the Brady and Prairie Green landfill sites for the remains of Indigenous women who went missing last year and are suspected to be victims of an accused serial killer.

Her stubborn refusal to allow the search, and have the Manitoba government contribute toward its cost, has ignited protests that have caused road closures, as well as the blockade of the Brady landfill site, disrupting garbage collection and disposal.

The premier’s position has also made her the target of withering criticism from influential organizations and many media commentators. Just last week, the Assembly of Manitoba Chiefs unanimously passed a resolution demanding her resignation because of her position on the proposed landfill searches.

In the face of such an angry response to Stefanson’s refusal to authorize the searches, it would be easy to assume that she‘s costing her party’s candidates votes and jeopardizing her government’s re-election hopes.

Don’t be so sure about that.

It is entirely possible, even likely, that the Tories have polling and focus group data that tells them that a significant percentage of Manitobans actually agree with the premier’s position on the landfill searches, for a range of reasons. Some may feel that the cost and risks associated with the search would be too high, but others may be suffering from a troubling attitude that Free Press colleague Dan Lett characterizes as “reconciliation fatigue” — a polite euphemism for “racism.”

In other words, Stefanson’s position on the emotion-laden issue may enjoy a higher level of support among likely voters than most of us realize. Indeed, it is highly possible that she has deliberately taken that position, and stubbornly sticks to it, because she has data suggesting it would win votes among voter segments the Tories rely upon as part of their re-election efforts.

That same data may also suggest the Tories actually gain or solidify support every time a road is blocked or she is loudly criticized by commentators and Indigenous leaders.

A second puzzling Tory position is Stefanson’s plan to amend the Public Schools Act to expand “parental rights,” including the right for parents to be involved in addressing their child’s behaviour changes at school. Many commentators argue the premier’s promise is part of a barely disguised scheme to prevent students from altering their gender identity and pronouns. They regard the pledge as a dog whistle pandering to the anti-LGBTTQ+ faction in our province.

Those commentators, along with high-profile and highly-vocal defenders of LGBTTQ+ rights, appear to assume that a large swath of the public also opposes Stefanson’s plan but, again, that may not be accurate. Just last week, a poll by the Angus Reid polling organization revealed that three-quarters of Manitobans feel that parents should be informed about any changes to their child’s gender identity.

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Another factor to consider when assessing the Tories’ strategy is its effectiveness as a distracting “channel changer.” When voters’ are forced to focus on hot-button wedge issues like the landfill searches and parental rights questions, they aren’t thinking about other issues the government is much more vulnerable on.

Indeed, each day the media and other political parties aren’t forcing the Tories to answer tough questions on health care and education is a win for Team Stefanson.

Why would the Tories use a strategy that targets voters who hold views and biases many regard as offensive? The answer is obvious: they are trying to win an election and they believe their approach, no matter how cynical and divisive it may appear to some, will win them votes they need in order to be re-elected on October 3.

In fact, it may be their only realistic path to re-election. Given the Tories’ vulnerability on health care and education, the strategy is really the opposite of political suicide. It’s a matter of political survival — theirs.

Deveryn Ross is a political commentator living in Brandon. deverynrossletters@gmail.com X: @deverynross