Dreaming of Winnipeg, 2030

Opinion

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 29/11/2023 (679 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

It is Jan. 1, 2030 and a raft of new changes introduced by the Wab Kinew government come into effect today.

The first is a revised building code: 2030 is the first year where natural gas is banned in new home construction. Heating will be either geothermal (or other electric) in super-insulated homes. High-efficiency tank-less systems provide hot water. New large-scale residential developments now incorporate community-wide geothermal heating.

Next year, fossil fuels will be banned for furnace and hot water tank replacements. A subsidy program to offset costs will use revenues from Manitoba’s carbon tax introduced by the Kinew government in 2027. It’s a taxable benefit with a low-income exemption. The changes to future regulations, first announced in 2024, gave industry ample lead time to prepare.

Phase 2 of flexible regulations for new vehicle sales comes into effect today, with 50 per cent mandated to be EVs. Phase 1 went into effect in 2027 requiring 20 per cent EVs in new sales. Phase 3 in 2035 brings that to 100 per cent. EV uptake proceeds rapidly as they reached price parity with their gas counterparts in 2027, and the used-EV inventory rises.

With gas vehicles banned from downtown Winnipeg in 2028, the streets are quieter and cleaner. The reduced car traffic allowed installation of separated bus and active-transportation lanes on all major streets. Surface parking lots covered by solar panels provide EV charging.

The transition of Winnipeg transit from diesel buses to clean energy is now well underway, with most produced locally, boosting the Manitoba economy. Being cheaper to run has helped with fleet expansion and improved the quality of service. That, and adding a network of park-and-ride stations, has increased ridership dramatically.

In the suburbs, grocery store and mall parking lots have Level-2 and Level-3 EV charging available. Individuals without access to home charging facilities can now conveniently charge EVs while shopping.

Hydrogen plays a growing role in the Manitoba economy. A green hydrogen export facility begins production this summer at Churchill. Powered by wind and solar, it will export to Europe over the summer shipping season.

We now see a national electricity grid providing greater market access and reliability for Manitoba power. It was a key initiative of the Trudeau government.

In 2025, Justin Trudeau lost the election to Pierre Poilievre and resigned. But the minority government fell inside six months when Poilievre introduced legislation to repeal the carbon tax.

Pushback came from industry. Having already invested in low-carbon technology, they wanted stability in the business environment.

As the Liberals had not yet held their leadership convention, Mr. Trudeau rescinded his resignation, ran in the 2026 election as leader, and won a healthy majority. He immediately introduced a windfall profits tax on Big Oil and Gas to fund a national rooftop solar panel and battery storage program. His carbon tax remains a key element of Canada’s energy transition policy.

While Manitoba is currently ahead of its emission reduction targets, external events deliver challenges. Since 2023 when the Euro zone first introduced carbon tariffs, we’ve faced rising trade barriers in the Euro, North American and Pacific trade zones. All view Canada’s failure to meet emissions reduction targets, due almost entirely to high emissions from Alberta and Saskatchewan oil and gas fields, as an unfair trade subsidy.

But with global demand for fossil fuels falling rapidly, oil and gas production and their greenhouse gas emissions are also falling. The Transmountain Pipeline now runs at less than half capacity and loses boatloads of money. Alberta became a recipient of federal equalization in 2029, the same year the Alberta Pension Plan collapsed. Then-premier Danielle Smith had demanded it invest in Alberta oil and gas stocks that have lost most of their value. Premier Rachel Notley’s government now seeks a federal bailout.

In contrast, the second-term Kinew government reaps an economic bonanza from policies set in motion during its first term in office. A geothermal electricity plant in Lynn Lake. A solar recycling plant in Lorette. A fertilizer plant in Virden substituting renewable energy for natural gas. New wind and solar farms built out across the province, many partnering with Indigenous communities. Methane capture at landfills fueling garbage trucks. Green hydrogen powering heavy transport and industry. Former oil and gas workers redeployed to drill for geothermal energy and construct gravity-storage facilities for wind and solar power.

With growing prosperity across urban, rural and Indigenous communities, polling shows that the Kinew government will be easily re-elected next year. And the premier, basking in this success, is now even being courted as leader for both the federal NDP and Liberals.

The clean-energy boom has delivered myriad economic and environmental benefits to all Manitobans. Why? Because our government had the foresight back in 2023 to see the rapidly arriving future.

Scott Forbes is an (optimistic) ecologist at the University of Winnipeg.