Tories in hiding one day after stunning Tuxedo defeat By: Kevin Rollason Posted: 6:48 PM CDT Wednesday, Jun. 19, 2024 Last Modified: 7:52 PM CDT Wednesday, Jun. 19, 2024 Updates

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Manitoba Tories, battered and bruised by their byelection defeat in what should have been a slam-dunk contest in a Winnipeg stronghold, were in full retreat mode Wednesday.

No one from the party, including MLAs, would weigh in about why they lost Tuxedo to the governing NDP by a tad more than 600 votes.

There was nothing but radio silence one day after the NDP’s historic win of the seat once held by two Progressive Conservative premiers.

One of them, Gary Filmon, was abrupt when asked what went wrong.

“No comment,” he told the Free Press.

Former premier Heather Stefanson, who stepped down as MLA May 6 — and had quit as party leader after the Tories were defeated by the New Democrats in the October election — could not be reached for comment.

Interview requests to interim leader Wayne Ewasko and Tory MLAs Kelvin Goertzen and Obby Khan weren’t returned.

It was left to political observers to analyze why New Democrat Carla Compton beat Tory Lawrence Pinsky in Tuesday’s byelection.

Kelly Saunders, an associate political science professor at Brandon University, called it a “significant blow” for the PCs.

“This isn’t just personalities and policy issues. This shows the structural problems with the Tories,” Saunders said. “It’s really a clear rejection of the kind of politics and policies which the PCs have demonstrated for some time now. This was a clear rejection of the Conservative brand and platform.

Royce Koop at the University of Manitoba says he was surprised the true-blue constituency turned orange.

“The Tories are unpopular… and the NDP is at a high point,” he said Wednesday.

The well-to-do Tuxedo area was among the few Winnipeg seats to remain strongly with the Tories when the NDP racked up big majority governments in the early 2000s.

Strategic voting may have influenced some voters, said Koop.

“(They) can either have a Tory on the Opposition benches or a New Democrat in the government,” he said.

In October, the New Democrat candidate, Larissa Ashdown, who spent little money on her campaign, came within 268 votes of beating Stefanson.

Saunders said the PCs face the massive job of rebuilding the party, including finding a way to appeal to Winnipeg voters.

The party holds only two Winnipeg seats: Khan in Fort Whyte and Kathleen Cook in Roblin.

“They need to recognize their message is not resonating with Winnipeg voters,” she said. “Unless they are happy just to be an opposition party, or one which can only have a minority government, they have to grow the vote in Winnipeg.”

 

With the win, the NDP has 35 seats in the legislature, equalling NDP premier Gary Doer’s second election tally in 2003; while the PCs remain at 21 seats. The Manitoba Liberal Party has one seat, which is held by interim leader Cindy Lamoureux.

Malcolm Bird, an associate professor of political science at the University of Winnipeg, said byelections are “a snapshot” of the electorate’s opinions.

“Clearly, by more than 600 voters, they have endorsed the present government.”

Bird said it was a victory for the government and a defeat, with a message, for the Tories.

“They are sending a message to the Tories you aren’t sending the message people want to see,” he said.

He said it’s tough for a party to rebrand itself until it gets a new leader.

“Clearly, by more than 600 voters, they have endorsed the present government.”–Malcolm Bird

“In general, Conservative parties need to come up with effective and tangible policies… they really need effective real government actions to address problems.”

Compton was still on a high one day after her victory.

“I believe the folks of Tuxedo were really sending a message during the last general election they are for health care, they are for Manitoba being for everyone,” she said at a news conference at the legislature.

“This government, our Premier Wab Kinew, they heard that message and, with this byelection, really worked hard to connect and let everyone in Tuxedo know we are there for them as much as we are for every other Manitoban.”

Kinew couldn’t contain his ambition.

“My goal is always 57 seats in the Manitoba legislature,” he said.

“While we may not be painting all 57 seats orange, the fact we are here, heading into summer 2024, and we have a representative of Tuxedo as part of the NDP team, I think that is saying something about the people of Manitoba and how people want to move forward together in a good way.”

Lamoureux said while the NDP is revelling in a honeymoon period with voters, she believes the byelection was “more so a rejection of the PCs.”

Lamoureux said she heard voters say they wanted to ensure the PC candidate didn’t get in.

“That’s not, in my opinion, a vote of confidence for the NDP. It’s a vote of not a lot of confidence for the PCs. It is strategic voting.”

Liberal Jamie Pfau came in a distant third.

“I think having another Liberal voice inside the Manitoba legislature would only encourage a healthier democracy. I think it is important we have more than a two-party system,” Lamoureux said.

— With files from Nicole Buffie and The Canadian Press

kevin.rollason@freepress.mb.ca