One growing city

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This article was published 15/08/2024 (415 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

The City of Winnipeg is set to mark another year of unusually high population growth, though the rate is expected to slow down in coming years.

The city’s population grew by 3.9 per cent between 2022 and 2023 and is expected to grow another 2.7 per cent between 2023 and 2024, once numbers are finalized up to July 1 of this year.

That estimate would bring the city’s population to about 837,600 within city limits, up from roughly 815,600 in 2023.

“The 3.9 per cent we saw from 2022 to 2023, that was probably the largest percentage growth (since 1992). Winnipeg’s population grew by just a little over 30,000 people in that period of time. That’s roughly three-year’s worth of population growth in one year. Those numbers are very high, even 2.7 per cent that we are estimating for this year, that number is high, historically speaking,” said Tyler Kroeker, a senior economist with the City of Winnipeg.

“The 3.9 per cent we saw from 2022 to 2023, that was probably the largest percentage growth (since 1992).”–Tyler Kroeker, senior economist at the City of Winnipeg

The population of Winnipeg’s census metropolitan area, which also includes East St. Paul, Headingley, Macdonald, Niverville, Ritchot, Rosser, Springfield, St. Clements, St. Francois Xavier, Tache and West St. Paul, is projected to reach 938,000 this year, up from 910,200 in 2023.

Kroeker noted population growth affects many aspects of city life. While more people require more services and infrastructure as numbers grow, the increase also boosts the supply of workers.

“Immigration is a crucial supplement to our labour force,” he said.

Kroeker said many non-permanent residents and people on work permits have moved to the city in recent years.

He said population numbers are expected to slow to a more normal growth rate of 0.9 per cent between 2024 and 2025.

“I think what we saw in 2023 and what we expect for 2024 … has been abnormally high levels of population growth,” said Kroeker.

Immigration is a major component of the city’s growth, which prevents the population from declining as the fertility rate drops and some Manitobans continue to move to other provinces, he said.

“In our models, if we actually turn all the immigration to zero in 2025 and onwards, our population starts to shrink almost immediately and we start losing about 5,000 people a year … and so Winnipeg would probably shrink to about 700,000 people by the mid-2050s,” said Kroeker.

Janice Lukes, Winnipeg’s deputy mayor, noted her Waverley West ward has grown “exponentially” over the past decade, thanks largely to immigration.

Lukes said that growth is critical to the local economy but more work is needed to ensure the city can offer enough services, housing and infrastructure to support new residents.

“We need (the growth) for the labour force. We need it for the tax base. We need it to help continue stimulating the economy … That’s great. But we have to, in my opinion, be better prepared to accommodate this growth,” she said.

For example, Lukes said governments must partner up and boost services for Waverley West.

“The planners did not anticipate this rapid growth … So, it’s taken longer to build schools, it’s taken longer to build community centres, it’s taken longer to build fire stations, all these key pieces of infrastructure,” she said.

Lukes said she’s also aware of some newcomers who moved back to their countries of origin due to challenges in finding housing and jobs in Winnipeg.

“We really need to make sure that when new Canadians come, they’re not forced into horrible situations because we can’t accommodate it,” she said.

Marc Vachon, an associate professor in the University of Winnipeg’s geography department, said it’s no surprise to see a spike in the local population, since the federal government has increased the number of immigrants it welcomes into Canada each year.

However, he said there must be more attention to alleviate housing shortages and the surging cost of rent, to ensure people can meet their needs once they move to Winnipeg.

“Overall, economically, this is good news for Manitoba. The only caveat I have is, basically, housing. If we continue this policy of extending ourselves like this, this won’t be good for the city in the long term,” said Vachon.

“Overall, economically, this is good news for Manitoba. The only caveat I have is, basically, housing.”–Marc Vachon, U of W associate professor in geography department

The city is expected to see 23,300 housing starts and add 37,600 people to its labour force by 2028.

Vachon said the relative affordability of Winnipeg homes could be attracting some new residents when compared with higher prices in Toronto and Vancouver.

The city population report predicts Winnipeg growth beyond this year will drop to “more typical” pre-2020 levels.

The City of Winnipeg is now expected to reach a population of one million people around 2046, while the census metropolitan area is projected to reach that mark by 2031.

joyanne.pursaga@freepress.mb.ca

X : @joyanne_pursaga

Winnipeg population projections