Churchill and LNG would mix like oil and water

Churchill has always been a place of connection and of change. However, last week’s remarks from Prime Minister Mark Carney that Churchill could become a year-round export terminal for liquefied natural gas (LNG) suggest a risky vision for the future that could imperil the balance and diversity that has allowed this unusual community on Hudson Bay to endure.

At its founding, Churchill connected Inuit, Dene and Cree communities with the Hudson Bay Company’s vast trading network. In the waning days of the fur trade, Churchill re-emerged as an important cold war base, housing thousands of troops.

When North America’s defence needs changed, Churchill again reinvented itself as a research hub for aerospace and a broad array of scientific enquiry. Through the second half of the 20th century, Churchill also became a critical social service centre for much of Hudson Bay and the central Arctic. Now it has emerged as one of Canada’s great ecotourism destinations. Few places better capture the adaptability and resilience of the North.

The prime minister and Premier Wab Kinew have both described Churchill LNG exports as a “nation-building” project. Investment in the transportation corridor that connects the Arctic to southern Canada through the port and railroad is indeed overdue. The Port of Churchill is a national asset with enormous potential and diverse strengths.

But a blind leap into LNG is, at best, a risky gamble — financially uncertain, environmentally disruptive, and globally uncompetitive.

We have seen similar schemes before.

From oil-by-rail to “Cannapux” (hockey puck-shaped bitumen), proposals to export fossil fuels through Churchill have resurfaced every decade only to collapse under scrutiny.

LNG may be the latest version, but the same challenges remain: high costs, short open-water shipping seasons, volatile markets, and uncertain demand. The background studies alone for such a project would create a cottage industry costing millions, diverting funds and political attention from the more realistic and sustainable economic development that needs to continue in the region.

Meanwhile, much of the world will continue accelerating the transition to renewable energy, creating the risk of expensive stranded assets. We need be looking 20 and 50 years ahead and positioning Canadian industry for long-term prosperity while also reducing emissions.

The environmental risks are also substantial. The scale of the proposed megaproject, estimated at around $30 billion, would demand maximum shipping volumes and an extended season. That means intensive icebreaking and steady tanker traffic through fragile ecosystems. Such pressure would disturb belugas, polar bears, seals, and migratory birds — the very wildlife that underpins Churchill’s $100-million tourism economy and global reputation. Even if the economics looked stronger, this kind of unbalanced push would risk sidelining the cultural, ecological, and social values that have always sustained Churchill.

In particular, large-scale industrial shipping connected to LNG exports would undoubtedly affect the world’s largest population of migrating belugas that travel to Churchill each summer.

Previous experience shows that industrial shipping and high-density Arctic whale habitat is not a good mix — not for the whales, and not for the people who depend on them. In Nunavut’s Milne Inlet, which has some of the planet’s densest summer narwhal habitat, ship noise from a nearby iron mine during a narrow and intensive season resulted in dramatic narwhal decline. Local opposition and concerns over impacts prompted the federal/territorial assessment board to recommend against further expansion of that shipping route.

What’s missing in today’s discussion is balance. A push for LNG undermines the foundations that make Churchill special — its Indigenous stewardship, its thriving tourism industry, and its global role as a wildlife sanctuary and research hub. True nation-building means bringing all of these assets to the table.

The alternative is already in front of us.

Churchill is an international destination as the polar bear capital of the world, home to the planet’s largest beluga population, and a hub for northern science and Indigenous culture. This season, the port successfully shipped thousands of tonnes of zinc concentrate out of the Churchill estuary and at the same time co-operated with marine biologists who study the relationship between the whales and commercial shipping, all of which occurred as a flotilla of paddleboarders and whale watchers revelled among vast numbers of belugas. Federal and provincial governments that embrace habitat protection can also support a modernized port that prioritizes sustainable industrial development.

Manitobans don’t need an LNG pipe dream for our coast. But we do need leadership that creates big tables for big ideas. Building on its cultural, ecological, and economic pillars, we can ensure Churchill’s next reinvention is both prosperous and enduring.

Chris Debicki is Oceans North’s vice-president of policy development and counsel. He lives in Winnipeg.

Clarification: Baffinland, which uses the Milne Inlet port, maintains that it has invested in the most extensive underwater acoustic monitoring program in Eclipse Sound, consistently demonstrating that while vessel noise is detectable, it is temporary, well below levels that could cause acoustic injury, and effectively managed through mitigation measures. As well, according to COSEWIC, narwhal populations remain stable and are now classified as “Not at Risk.” While narwhals do avoid ships during passage, studies confirm they resume normal behaviour afterward.