Russian drone incursions reveal Europe’s weakness

They’re back. Two Russian drones breached Romania’s airspace on Nov. 25, continuing a wave of mysterious drone activity across Europe this fall. Officials have chalked it up to the Kremlin trolling Ukraine’s European allies.

The incidents have sparked anxious debate within Europe over how to respond to Russian aggression. Or if the continent is even capable of defending its own airspace.

Since early September, drones have appeared dozens of times near airports, military bases and other locations in Poland, Germany and Denmark. Likewise in Belgium — headquarters of the NATO western military alliance and holder of US$212 billion in frozen Russian assets. Britain has recorded at least 187 drone sightings around its military bases since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

NATO in early September scrambled advanced fighter jets, surface-to-air batteries and surveillance aircraft in response to just 19 drones crossing into Poland. It burned millions of dollars of resources to confront drones that cost a few hundred apiece. It was a tiny fraction of the incoming threat that Ukraine deals with nightly. Three Russian fighter jets crossed into Estonia that same month as well.

The saga gives “little reason for confidence about how NATO forces would fare if faced with 600 drones and missiles on a single night,” wrote military strategist Phillips Payson O’Brien. European nations haven’t adapted to immediate risks or the future of war, he added. “Their constant weakness to this point has emboldened Putin to flagrantly violate NATO airspace while reinforcing the idea that member states have no idea how to look after their own security.”

This comes on top of all the other dimensions of Russia’s hybrid war targeting them.

Moscow’s shadowy campaign of sabotage involves wide-ranging cyber attacks, disinformation and disruptions to train networks. Then there is the cutting of undersea internet cables and manipulation of GPS signals in the Baltics. Russian dissidents in exile face assassination plots. Warehouses and retail centres across Europe have been torched by arsonists. In France, severed pig heads have been left outside of mosques and other religious sites desecrated in suspected attempts by Russia to stir social division.

Britain, France, Lithuania, Romania and Germany have authorized security forces to shoot down any new mysterious drones. NATO officials have meanwhile vowed the alliance will become “more aggressive” toward the Kremlin. This includes possibly downing Russian warplanes that enter NATO territory.

Calls are growing louder too for a so-called “drone wall” across Europe’s eastern flank. The concept envisions a latticework of radars, airborne surveillance, electronic jamming equipment and anti-air weapons to track and destroy unmanned aerial units launched from Russia. Early components are due to come online early next year. The EU’s top diplomat wants it to be fully active by 2027.

However, there’s an enormous amount of territory to cover.

“You need a huge range of tactical radars for low flying drones and larger radars for higher altitude targets, across thousands of kilometres,” a researcher at the Royal United Services Institute think tank told the BBC. “And you need cost-effective interceptors and forces to be ready around the clock. It will never be watertight, and even as costs of some radars and interceptors fall, it’s very unlikely to be cheap.”

Plus, security experts suspect most of the mysterious drones buzzing around Western Europe in recent months haven’t come from Russia. Instead, they are being launched domestically by local proxies paid by the Kremlin.

The EU has allocated €800 billion (C$1.3 trillion) to resurrect the continent’s military industrial base. But ultimately, all roads lead back to Ukraine. Kyiv has frequently offered to consult European policymakers and may soon drop its military export ban to unlock funding for Ukraine’s decentralized arms industry.

“The West is accustomed to thinking of Ukraine as a beneficiary of military support,” wrote the editorial board of the Wall Street Journal in late November, arguing the reverse is now true. Kyiv has accumulated unrivalled expertise in drone warfare, which “prioritizes low-cost solutions.”

Europe must fortify itself, fast. For one, Vladimir Putin hasn’t wavered from his maximalist war aims. He has pinned his legacy on rendering Ukraine a Russian satellite state — a new Belarus. And U.S. President Donald Trump seems all-too-committed to helping in exchange for renewed business with Moscow.

If so, Western intelligence agencies warn EU countries may within five years become the next target of Russian imperialism. Some Baltic states are in the process of exiting the global land mine treaty in case they need to lace their borders with explosives.

For European security, the clock is ticking.

Kyle Volpi Hiebert is a Montreal-based political risk analyst focused on globalization, conflict and emerging technologies.