Poilievre should take time to reset message, style

The best way for Pierre Poilievre to become prime minister is for Mark Carney to get a majority government. One more floor crossing takes the Liberals to the magic number of 172 seats in the House of Commons. That guarantee of three more years in power is exactly the balm the leader of the official Opposition needs to reset his appeal to Canadian voters.

Naturally, this is heresy to Conservatives. They continue to spiral themselves into high dudgeon over the “traitorous” exits of two caucus members to join the Liberal government. In a bid to shine the spotlight of blame anywhere but on their leader, they have successively blamed the MPs themselves, the Liberals in general, Mark Carney personally, and even a conspiracy hatched by the Chinese Communist Party.

Conservative militants are firmly in the “one more push” camp. Everything done to achieve the admittedly solid and improved showing in April’s election simply needs to be done again. Not our fault. No need to change. Victory is in sight.

They’re wrong. These are the musings of a “we was robbed” mentality. Comfortably leading the polls with a guaranteed majority Conservative government in tasting distance, it only went south because of U.S. President Donald Trump. If only he hadn’t appeared with his 51st-state rhetoric; if only Justin Trudeau hadn’t resigned; if only Mark Carney hadn’t appeared, Poilievre would have won.

“If only” is the most persistently seductive grievance in politics. It always obscures hard truths underneath and deflects tough questions facing losing campaigns.

There were two campaign narratives on offer last time: change versus Trump. The Liberals won as best able to deal with Trump. The Conservatives won on best able to offer change. But the election turned on leadership. Carney and the Liberals were re-elected on the basis of having the best leader for the country in these fraught times. The hinge upon which the Conservative leader’s electoral fate swung was himself. He held his party back.

Not much has changed since then. While the polling differences between parties remain close and competitive, Carney continues to lead Poilievre by a wide margin on “best prime minister.” Until the Conservative leader erases that gap, he has a much better chance of losing than winning the next election.

Which makes the prospect of a few years grace before that election a blessing not a misfortune. It gives Poilievre the time and space he requires to recast himself as a more mature and reassuring leader for the times ahead.

Consider this: the leader of the official Opposition has never travelled outside Canada since becoming leader. Not once. With the world coming unglued at the seams, how reassuring can that be to Canadians that Poilievre has the knowledge, wisdom, and skills to lead the country and negotiate on our behalf?

That didn’t matter if the election was solely a referendum on replacing a deeply unpopular Trudeau government. But it did matter when the issue became one of leadership confidence to navigate through Trump and a visibly turbulent world.

The Conservative leader has strengths. He retains the edge on being best able to deal with many of the most important issues concerning Canadians like the cost of living, housing, and affordability. The country is still not on the right track yet for many voters. He appeals to a strong core of young Canadians.

This is a conspicuous advantage to Poilievre. Unfortunately, too many Conservatives view this as proof points, not for change, but for the “one more push” school of thought. What they don’t appreciate is that circumstances around them have changed. They need to adapt to a new political world where their chief opponent is demonstrably more popular than theirs, is ripe for the times, and is currently implementing many of their own cherished policy ideas. And he’s doing so in such a way that he is peeling away some of Poilievre’s own caucus members.

That’s why it is unfathomable that doubling down on the leadership attributes and strategy that were unable to yield an election win last time is still being pursued. The failure of the Conservative campaign to adapt to the new circumstances of Trump winning, Trudeau leaving, and Carney arriving — in that order — caused them to lose once. A failure of Poilievre and his party to adapt to the new realities they face now will guarantee the same result. Conservatives need to adapt to the reality of the election ahead, not keep fighting the election behind.

Which is why Poilievre and the Conservative party should take deliberate advantage of the time they have on the other side of the aisle to reset their leadership and messaging style to connect with more Canadians. While the party brand is residually strong, the leadership brand is holding them back. Since leadership matters most to voters, the signals from the Conservative leader will resonate the greatest.

Successful leaders adapt and learn. Confident leaders demonstrate their willingness to do so. A Mark Carney majority government would give Pierre Poilievre the runway time he needs to find a new way to connect with voters and regain the leadership edge he once had and could conceivably recover once again.

After all, what’s to lose?

David McLaughlin is a former clerk of the executive council and cabinet secretary in the Manitoba government.