Carabao Cup final a tale of two footy clubs

Sunday’s Carabao Cup final could be the start of something, the end of something, or both.

Let’s start with, well, the start.

Still competing in all four competitions, Arsenal could kick off quite a memorable spring by beating Manchester City at Wembley (11:30 a.m., DAZN). Not counting Community Shields — because, who does? — a win would give the Gunners their first trophy in six years and perhaps be a springboard to bigger and better near-term triumphs.

Next up after Sunday will be an April 4th trip to Southampton in the sixth round of the FA Cup. Arsenal is the tournament’s record winner, and it would no doubt like to add a 15th replica to the cabinet. But if it ends up beating City, this is the competition it could sacrifice as it contends on more prestigious fronts.

Manager Mikel Arteta will pick his team for St. Mary’s with Estádio José Alvalade very much front of mind. It is there, in Lisbon just three days later, that his team will face Sporting CP in the first leg of the Champions League quarterfinals. It’s a favourable matchup, and one the club will not want to squander as it pursues a first European Cup.

Four days after that, Arsenal will host Bournemouth in its 32nd match of the Premier League season. This — the domestic title — is the one it really wants. It’s also the one, after the Carabao Cup, that the Gunners are most likely to get.

City, incidentally, is Arsenal’s opponent in the title race as well. In second spot, it trails the London outfit by nine points. Even if it wins its game in hand, that gap is still six. And should it prevail when the two sides meet on April 19th, the three-point difference could still be sufficient to see Arsenal crowned champion as it runs its rival out of games.

But if Arsenal win that match at Etihad Stadium, it’s over.

Now, there remains some nervousness among supporters and skepticism in the punditry class regarding Arsenal’s ability to get through the next few weeks without choking. Because — let’s face it — it’s Arsenal.

That said, the team has something going for it that should ensure the title at the very least, and perhaps the Carabao Cup as well: it is very, very boring.

The Gunners have played 12 matches since the start of February and have scored more than twice in only three of them. Meanwhile, 43 per cent of their Premier League tallies have come from set-piece situations or own goals. They have the third-fewest shots of the teams remaining in the Champions League.

Well, guess what? Excepting Arsène Wenger’s tenure, Arsenal’s history is one of very boring football. And Arteta’s approach, while unpopular outside the club, has it on the cusp of a memorable spring.

This is a group whose star man is Declan Rice, a defensive midfielder with a penchant for involvement in those set-piece goals. He’s not flashy. He’s also the best all-around midfielder in England. Defenders William Saliba and Gabriel Magalhaes will also rarely make headlines, even if they’re the Premier League’s top defensive duo by far.

If Arteta finds himself in need of some late-game, and late-season, magic, it’s likely to come from Eberechi Eze, who has scored four goals in the past month and tends to elevate his play this time of year.

Manchester City, for its part, was eliminated from the Champions League by Real Madrid on Tuesday and, barring an epic Arsenal meltdown, even by the Gunners’ standards, will lose out on the Premier League as well.

Which leaves it with the Carabao and FA Cups — far-from-guaranteed consolation prizes in what might be manager Pep Guardiola’s last season at the club.

The Spaniard is under contract until 2027, although it’s widely expected that he’ll leave a year early. It would be an understandable decision. Having orchestrated among the most dominant decades in English football history, his current City side is an awkward mixture of young stars, aging veterans and players who are simply not good enough to challenge for major honours.

It’s a squad in need of surgery, and Guardiola may leave the operating theatre to a more eager surgeon. Hey may also want to exit the scene prior to any punishment for the club’s 115 alleged breaches of Profit & Sustainability Rules.

In other words, the next two months could represent the end of an era at Manchester City.

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Already, captain Bernardo Silva’s contract will expire in June and won’t be renewed, and long-time defensive stalwart John Stones is likely to follow him out the door. Rodri, who won the Ballon d’Or in 2024, has one year left on his pact and has drawn interest from Real Madrid. Nathan Aké and Mateo Kovacic are also out of contract next summer.

Leaving its FA Cup campaign to the side, the Carabao Cup final could well represent a last hurrah for this City team — and for an entire generation of the club.

With Arsenal in the ascendancy, even a City win on Sunday would be purely symbolic.

The Gunners look poised to go on a run; City seem a spent force. This Cup final will likely draw a line under each scenario, no matter the outcome.

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