Strategic crisis exposed

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This article was published 14/10/2009 (6021 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

TEL-AVIV — The cancellation of the Anatolian Eagle air exercise in Turkey has exposed for the first time publicly the depth of the strategic crisis between Turkey and Israel.

Israel disclosed on Sunday that joint North Atlantic Treaty Organization air force exercises, code-named Anatolian Eagle, had been postponed because Turkey was excluding the Israeli air force. The United States and Italy both pulled out.

At first Turkey denied any political motive. But then Foreign Minister Ahmet Davotoglu told CNN that “once the situation in Gaza is improved, a new atmosphere would be re-established between Israel and Turkey.” Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan went one step further Monday. After Turkey and Syria signed an agreement to abolish the need for travel visas, Erdogan attacked Israel for its conduct in Gaza.

Thus it can no longer be denied that, since Erdogan’s AKP Islamic party won power in 2003, there has been a slow but steady Turkish effort to distance itself from Israel. It has become clear that Erdogan attaches greater importance to relations with the Arab and Muslim world than with Israel.

One cannot, however, separate deteriorating relations from the more serious Erdogan conviction that Turkey will never become a member of the European Union. He became convinced of this after the visit to Paris of Turkish President Abdullah Gul. It confirmed reports about French President Nicolas Sarkozy’s assertion during talks in Paris with U.S. President Barack Obama.

According to diplomatic dispatches, Sarkozy told Obama: “it’s very important for Europe to have clearly defined borders. Europe is a force of stability and I will never allow this force of stability to be destroyed.” He is reported to have tsaid that only a small portion of Turkey, west of the Bosphorus, is geographically in Europe. The rest is in Asia and the overwhelming majority of its 76 million inhabitants are Muslims. If Turkey joins the EU, Europe will not be Europe anymore.

Similar comments were made by Sarkozy during Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s recent visit to Paris. Sarkozy is reported to have complained that Turkey is doing nothing to halt illegal Muslim immigrants flowing through its borders, from Iraq, Iran and Afghanistan.

The current Israeli -Turkish crisis risks a fruitful relationship that began when both countries signed a strategic military alliance in 1996. Over the past 13 years, Israel sold arms and modern technologies to Turkey, overhauled Turkish tanks and airplanes, shared intelligence and conducted joint air and naval exercises. Turkey also became the most favoured Israeli tourism destination.

Erdogan changed the course of Turkish foreign policy when he signed a strategic alliance with Syria this year. In August 2008, he invited Iran’s President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to visit Ankara and made clear that he won’t join sanctions against Iran. And, deviating from the Western consensus, he invited Sudan’s President Omar Bashir to visit Turkey despite his barbaric atrocities in Darfur.

But the sharpest turn was in Erdogan’s relations with Israel. Using Operation Cast Lead as a pretext, Erdogan began distancing himself from Israel diplomatically, economically and strategically. In line with his rapprochement with Syria and Iran, he recognized Hamas rule in the Gaza Strip and invited Hamas leaders to Ankara.

On Jan. 29, Erdogan insulted Israeli President Shimon Peres by storming out of an economic conference in Davos, Switzerland.

Jerusalem began to retaliate. Last month, Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davotoglu wanted to visit Israel and the Gaza Strip but was told that he would be welcome in Jerusalem, but would have to find another avenue to Gaza.

More important, for more than a year Turkey has been negotiating the purchase of an Israeli satellite, the type which detected the secret nuclear reactors in Syria and at Qom in Iran. Israel made the sale conditional on Turkey’s assertion that it won’t transfer to Syria and Iran pictures taken by the satellite flying over Israel. Turkey refused the condition and the transaction was cancelled.

Jerusalem still hopes that Erdogan will reach the conclusion that he has more to lose than gain from this deterioration of relations.

Samuel Segev is the Winnipeg Free Press Middle East correspondent.