Canada’s religious groups losing faith in Liberals, recent poll reveals

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This article was published 03/06/2024 (853 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

Support for the federal Liberal party is declining among all religious groups, including two they have traditionally counted on — Muslims and Jews.

That’s the finding of a poll conducted by the Angus Reid Institute that shows how the war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza is having an effect on religious voters in this country.

The poll released in mid-May shows the Liberals’ efforts to offer a balanced response to the conflict is costing them support.

Among Muslims, 41 per cent say they support the NDP, compared to 31 per cent for the Liberals. In 2016, an Environics Institute survey found that 65 per cent of Muslims voted Liberal.

Among Jews, 42 per cent support the Conservatives, compared to 33 per cent for the Liberals and 20 per cent for the NDP. In 2018, Environics reported 36 per cent of Jewish voters preferred the Liberals, compared with 32 per cent for the Conservatives and 10 per cent for the NDP.

Angus Reid president Shachi Kurl said the shift among Muslims is based on what they feel is a lack of Liberal support for Palestinians, and Jews are moving to the Conservatives in greater numbers because they believe there is insufficient support for Israel from both the Liberals and NDP.

“Support (for the Liberals) is bleeding away from both sides,” Kurl said.

The poll results indicate Muslims are the only religious group to say the NDP is the preferred choice at the federal level.

“The governing Liberals are, at best, the second choice among all religious groups analyzed,” she said.

Sadaf Ahmed, a Winnipegger working towards her PhD on contemporary Islam in Canada at the University of Toronto, wasn’t surprised by the results.

While Muslims in Canada have historically supported the Liberals, she said there is disappointment over the federal government’s “both sides-ism,” designed to appease everyone.

She said while many Muslims hold socially and fiscally conservative views, support for the Conservatives has declined since former prime minister Stephen Harper was in government, a period when overt anti-Muslim and anti-immigrant informed the party’s policies.

And the poll’s finding that Muslims are leaning towards the NDP is also not a surprise in light of the party’s “more open and courageous” condemnation of the war, she said.

The situation has led many Muslims, who make up about five per cent of the population, to develop a deep cynicism about politics, in general in Canada, she said, adding the war in Gaza is a threshold issue for much of the community.

Winnipegger Allan Levine, who has written extensively about Jewish history and life in Canada, said because Jews make up only about 1.4 per cent of the population, there really isn’t a “Jewish vote.”

He noted however, that there are about 14 ridings in Canada — including Winnipeg South Centre, where Jewish voters could make a difference in the next federal election. Liberal Ben Carr currently holds the seat after a byelection a year ago following the death of his father, MP Jim Carr, who died six months earlier.

“While a majority of Jews in Winnipeg are rightly concerned with the war and with Israel’s future and well-being, opinions no doubt vary,” Levine said.

He said while many Jewish voters might be angry with the Liberals “for their shifting and sometimes self-righteous views on the war,” many also do not feel comfortable with the Conservative party and its “right-wing policies.”

In addition to Muslims and Jews, voters from other religious groups are also not supporting the Liberals, the Angus Reid poll found.

Among Christians, the Conservatives are the preferred choice for 53 per cent of voters. Broken down by denominations, 45 per cent of Roman Catholics would vote for the Conservatives, 24 per cent would choose the Liberals and 16 per cent support the NDP. Among mainline Protestants, 58 per cent support the Conservatives, 25 per cent back the Liberals and 11 per cent would vote NDP. Seventy-nine per cent of evangelicals would vote Conservative, five per cent for the Liberals and 14 per cent NDP.

For Hindus, 53 per cent would vote Conservative, 22 per cent Liberal and 18 per cent NDP. The numbers are similar in the Sikh community: 54 per cent are Conservative, 21 per cent Liberal and 20 per cent NDP.

The full results of the poll are online at http://wfp.to/ydr.

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