Conservative campaign not changing course: insiders

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This article was published 11/09/2015 (3690 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

OTTAWA – Suggestions the Conservative campaign is under siege and looking for a life raft have been wildly overblown, insiders at both the national and local level suggest.

A source close to the national Conservative campaign said the media narrative in recent days that Stephen Harper’s train has come off the rails and is looking for a do over is “wishful thinking.”

“Have they had a few rough days?” he asked, requesting not to be identified. “Absolutely. But there is still a whole campaign to come. The PM knows what he’s doing.”

After a difficult first half of the campaign, this week it appeared the Conservatives were regrouping. Harper’s narrative on refugees morphed towards more support for refugees, campaign manager Jenni Byrne flew back to Ottawa and Australian consultant Lynton Crosby, who has helped right wingers win in several international campaigns, arrived on the scene.

But the call to Crosby didn’t just go out in recent days as a sort of hail Mary attempt. In fact Crosby has been consulting with the Conservative campaign since last March.

And while Byrne was responsible for the vetting process that should have uncovered the urinary incident before it became #peegate, her return to Ottawa was not really because Harper was angry with her, said the insider. It was more a function of necessity.

“She is still the campaign manager and I do not expect that to change,” he said.

He said nobody in the Conservative camp went into this election thinking it would be the same as 2008 or 2011. With a decade of government behind them and four years of a majority to defend, everyone knew it would be tougher. He said the Prime Minister is being told to play up the energy that he shows in his evening stops during the day, to cut back on the defensiveness. And the campaign is looking at where they can tweak things to adapt to changing circumstances.

But the overall plan isn’t changing.

“The PM is a big believer in making a plan and staying with that plan,” he said.

That things are different than they were four years ago is clear at the local level in Winnipeg, Conservative sources tell the Free Press. But that isn’t a reflection of things that have gone on since Aug. 2, they say. It started before that.

“At the doors it’s tough,” said one campaign staffer. “It’s a different kind of campaign.”

She said there is a level of animosity to Harper on the doorstep that did not exist in 2011 and that seems to be driving the voter’s choices more than anything else.

“There’s a lot more ‘I’m not voting for Harper,’ in this election,” she said. “It’s undeniable there is a lot of anti-Conservative sentiment out there.”

The Conservatives hold five of the eight seats in Winnipeg right now. Realistically four of those five seats are in play and the Conservatives are playing heavy defence against offensive efforts of the NDP and the Liberals.

There are some local staff and volunteers who were a little on edge from the national polling numbers although Friday had two polls showing the Conservatives have bounced back and it’s again a three-way tie. But Conservatives who are working on campaigns in the three south Winnipeg ridings say thus far, the trouble on the national campaign hasn’t changed much of what the local campaigns are feeling they aren’t hearing about those events on the doorstep.

“I think most people here, it’s not their first rodeo so they know it’s really the last few weeks that matter,” said one Conservative campaign worker in Winnipeg.

It’s not to say there hasn’t been a lot of eye rolling, heavy sighing or head shaking at some of what has happened, like #peegate for instance.

“I sometimes wonder if Harper is sitting there at night talking to Laureen and saying “are we running a daycare here or an election,” one source joked.

The national advisor said things might start to get bad if the national poll numbers sunk to around 15 per cent but that isn’t what has happened, and the Conservatives know they have more money, a better ground organization to get the vote out on election day, and an advertising buy that will begin this weekend that will help.

“No one should be panicking at this point,” he said.

Locally the other parties are generally feeling good in the places they are targeting. After a disastrous showing in Manitoba in 2008 and 2011 the Liberals are showing signs of life again in south Winnipeg. Insider from the Liberal camp in Manitoba feel fairly confident about the effort by Dan Vandal in Saint Boniface-Saint Vital right now, decently happy with how the campaign is going for Jim Carr in Winnipeg South Centre, and mildly happy with Terry Duguid’s chances in Winnipeg South.

“Volunteers are pouring out,” said one source who is helping out. “There is money. The response on the doorstep is pretty good. People are working very hard.”

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The source said in Winnipeg South Centre last week, a poll crew went out and got 10 houses to take a Carr sign in one evening, which is a pretty good showing.

“The mood in the office was pretty good that night,” said the source.

The NDP were boosted by the addition of former provincial health minister Erin Selby to the candidate roster last week, and the ground game is buoyed by the idea the NDP actually has a chance to form government. But local NDP also know they are battling fatigue with the provincial NDP among the electorate which is hurting. Still the NDP are happy with how things look in Elmwood-Transcona, the one riding the NDP have acknowledged to be targeting as a pick-up in Manitoba.

Pat Martin, running in his seventh election in Winnipeg Centre for the NDP, has acknowledged he is in a tougher battle than he’s faced in recent years but still his campaign office is humming. He said there were more volunteers in his office before Labour Day than he had in all of the 2011 effort.

mia.rabson@freepress.mb.ca