Tories split from within on refugee crisis

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 11/09/2015 (3690 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

BRANDON — During his time in office, Prime Minister Stephen Harper has earned a well-deserved reputation for exploiting the weaknesses of his opponents and sowing division within their ranks. It is no small irony, then, that he has caused a growing rift in his own Conservative party on an issue he sought to exploit against New Democrats and Liberals.

The Harper government’s response to the Syrian refugee crisis has been attacked by opposition parties, premiers, mayors and the public, but criticism is now emerging from an unexpected direction — from within his Conservative supporters.

In an opinion piece published Wednesday, Mulroney-era immigration minister Barbara McDougall wrote “Conservative party followers may be split on this issue, but then Conservative party voters always are, no matter what the issue. Mr. Harper has done well to hold the Conservative factions together for the past decade, but the coalition, which began to unravel shortly after the last election, is disintegrating at an accelerating rate, with the remnants of the old Red Tories becoming more vocal on the moral crisis the government faces.”

“Canadians are looking for a leader to lead — to express the sympathetic outpouring of Canadians and act upon them.”

In an online op-ed entitled Harper is bungling the refugee issue — and it will cost him, also published this week, veteran columnist and former Mulroney staffer L. Ian MacDonald argued “If Harper wants to get himself out from under this problem, he needs to take action.

“First, he needs to revisit his claim last week that (the Islamic State) is the ‘root cause of the problem’ in Syria — demonstrably false, since the Assad regime has been waging war on its own people for five years, leaving half of them homeless and millions more displaced. Second, he needs a plan, and it should involve bringing in more than the 20,000 people he has agreed to accept: a nation of immigrants wants him to do more.”

McDougall and MacDonald cannot be dismissed as isolated voices of Tory dissent. Indeed, a number of senior party members have criticized Harper’s handling of the crisis, and a poll conducted by the Angus Reid Institute reveals the party’s base is sharply divided on the issue.

The poll found 42 per cent of Tory supporters feel “the migrant crisis is a global problem — Canada needs to step up and do its part,” and 37 per cent support “increasing the number of government-sponsored refugees to 20,000 per year at a cost of $100 million annually.”

It also revealed 45 per cent of party supporters are practising Christians (a much higher percentage than for either the NDP or Liberals), and almost half of that group also favour hiking the number of government-sponsored refugees to 20,000 per year.

The fact a significant segment of grassroots Conservatives disagrees with Harper’s position on the refugee issue poses a serious problem for the party, for several reasons. First, it forces those supporters to choose between their loyalty to the party and their religious beliefs and moral values. If even half of them are unwilling to compromise those beliefs, and decide to stay home on election day or vote for another party’s candidate, the Tories will lose this election.

Second, increasing the refugee quota would satisfy most dissenters but offend the slim majority of party supporters who agree with the government’s approach. It would also be condemned by opponents as being too late, insincere and unlikely to be implemented.

Third, as McDougall alluded to, Harper’s mishandling of the issue has exacerbated the divide between the Reform and Progressive Conservative elements of the party. The coalition has always been fragile, largely held together by the allure of power and the threat of Harper’s wrath. With the possibility of electoral defeat suddenly palpable, however, and Harper’s resignation as leader inevitable if that occurs, the political glue that binds the party may be dissolving.

With fewer than six weeks until the election, and several polls now revealing a slide into third place, the Conservative party finds itself in an existential crisis that demands a solution capable of mollifying both wings of the party.

If Stephen Harper can craft such a compromise, he may still save his job. If he fails, it could cost his party both its grip on power and its future as a viable political entity.

Deveryn Ross is a political commentator living in Brandon.

deverynrossletters@gmail.com Twitter: @deverynross