NDP MLAs to regroup, focus on party’s next steps

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This article was published 21/09/2015 (3683 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

Greg Selinger’s caucus faces some grim news as it discusses election readiness at a retreat in Hecla on Wednesday.

Sources say a poll commissioned by the NDP this summer shows the party continues to be very unpopular with voters.

They say the Strategic Communications Inc. (Stratcom) survey pegged support for the provincial NDP at only slightly better than 20 per cent.

When Stratcom asked respondents about Selinger specifically, support dipped below the 20 per cent mark.

If the party’s popularity fails to improve in the next seven months, the new polling suggests the NDP will be crushed in next spring’s election. Under provincial election legislation, Manitobans are set to vote on April 19.

At a caucus retreat a year ago in Brandon, government MLAs heard similar bad news. They were told support was so weak that the NDP had ventured into “annihilation territory.” The news helped spark a leadership challenge that Selinger barely survived, but which left the provincial party battered and bruised. The results of the new survey will do little to quell fears within the party.

Only two of five cabinet ministers — Andrew Swan (Minto) and Jennifer Howard (Fort Rouge) — who resigned last fall after calling on Selinger to step down have so far committed to seeking re-election. Stan Struthers (Dauphin) will retire at the end of the term, while Erin Selby (Southdale) recently resigned her seat to run federally in Saint Boniface-Saint Vital. Theresa Oswald (Seine River), who nearly unseated the premier in a leadership contest in April, has yet to declare whether she will run again.

The provincial cabinet meets in Arborg today in advance of Wednesday’s caucus meeting.

On the agenda at the caucus meeting is election preparedness, according to sources.

One source said the NDP’s pre-election messaging will be “apologetic” in tone.

That makes sense, says Winnipeg political scientist and author Chris Adams.

“They don’t want to sound like they deserve to be re-elected,” Adams said, adding he’s not surprised the provincial NDP continues to poll poorly.

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“Nothing’s really improved from a year ago,” he said. “They still have dissent in the backrooms. We have the same premier. And it’s yet another year since that time.”

According to polling by Angus Reid in June, Selinger is the most unpopular premier in Canada, with a 23 per cent approval rating.

New Democrats hold 35 seats in the Manitoba legislature, the Progressive Conservatives 19 and the Liberals one. There are two vacancies created by two recent NDP resignations — Peter Bjornson in Gimli and Erin Selby in Southdale.

In June, Probe Research released a poll showing the NDP with 29 per cent of decided voters, compared with 46 per cent for the Conservatives and 19 per cent for the Liberals. It’s currently surveying the provincial population again. The results will be published by the Free Press in the coming days.

larry.kusch@freepress.mb.ca