Premier hopes to quell desire for change by reiterating infrastructure spending

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 15/12/2015 (3593 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

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If he builds it, will they come?

“He”, of course, is Premier Greg Selinger, who has been in a desperate rush to build all kinds of stuff for the past two years in a bid to shore up the sagging support for his government.

“They” are voters who have become understandably skeptical about the idea of re-electing an NDP government after 16 years in power.

Can smooth roads and new public assets of all kinds trump the electorate’s appetite for change, and dampen concern about Selinger’s leadership after a year in which he was under attack from within his own party? If his speech at the State of the Province luncheon is any indication, Selinger certainly thinks so.

You never say never when it comes to both politics and elections that are still five months away. And we have plenty of evidence in other elections in other provinces to suggest that incumbent governments are always formidable when it comes to election. However, the hurdles for Selinger and the NDP are getting higher and more numerous every day it seems.

Not only are the NDP sagging in overall provincial support, but there are signs the surging Manitoba Liberal Party, and its rookie leader Rana Bokhari, are poised to make a move. Although it’s too early to say what a revived Liberal party would mean for the next election, conventional wisdom is that Grits eat heartily into NDP support and clear the way for Tories to win tight constituencies.

There is no getting around the fact that Selinger has lost ground with voters, and lost key veterans from his caucus and cabinet. Again, never say never, but it’s getting harder and harder to believe that Selinger can somehow snatch victory from the jaws of what appears to be almost certain defeat.

The direness of his situation does not mean, however, that the emphasis in his speech is wrong. At this stage in the fixed-date electoral cycle, putting all of Selinger’s eggs in the infrastructure basket is a pretty good strategy. Looking at that one file in isolation, the NDP government has made more progress in rebuilding the infrastructure in this province than any previous government of any stripe.

Going back over the 16 years, the NDP can point to a long and important list of projects it has helped build. From a new football stadium and hockey arena to new downtown assets like the Red River College campus on Princess Street and the Manitoba Hydro tower, the NDP has taken advantage of robust government revenues and low interest rates to build. A lot.

More than half a billion dollars was invested this year alone in repairing and replacing roads. More than four million tons of asphalt was poured. There are new or pending grade separations and twinned highways in several areas of the province. Drive major provincial highways and you will see overall conditions that are fundamentally better than they were just a few years ago.

You can see just how desperate Selinger is to pin the electorate’s attention on infrastructure in almost everything he says and does. This week, we learned that Manitoba Public Insurance has become a partner in the proposed True North Square, a $400-million multi-use development planned for land southwest of the current MTS Centre. It would easily become the largest private real estate development in the city’s history.

Selinger needs voters to see that Manitobans are prospering in a NDP-led province and the sexy True North Square would be — if it in fact goes forward — a great example.

The benefits of all this government infrastructure investment, and the private investment that has accompanied it, go beyond the tactile experience of the average motorist. The Manitoba construction industry is coming off a season of record government spending. And while that may not completely dampen the electorate’s appetite for change, it certainly will be top of mind for those businesses. Particularly since the Manitoba Progressive Conservatives are weak on the infrastructure file.

Tory Leader Brian Pallister has promised to keep infrastructure spending at NDP levels, while also eventually balancing the budget and — this is the big one — rolling back the one-point bump in the PST that Selinger is using in part to fund record infrastructure spending levels.

So far, Pallister has been unable to reconcile these three competing fiscal priorities. Rolling back the PST hike in and of itself would drain $300 million from the annual infrastructure program which, when all forms and program streams are taken into account, is well over a billion dollars. It is hard to see how or where Pallister will find that money, and another $400 million or so in savings or new revenue, necessary to keep infrastructure spending and balance the budget.

Pallister has provided Selinger a huge stick with which to beat his primary opponents. A stick that was more than a little visible at the State of the Province address.

Is it enough to help Selinger engineer a complete reversal of fortunes? We have seen more improbable narratives unfold in provincial elections in the past several years. Having said that, if infrastructure spending was somehow able to save this government, it would be among the most remarkable comebacks in recent political history.

For the time being and for the foreseeable future, Selinger will continue to build it. We’ll find out if they, the voters, will come when we all gather to vote next April.

dan.lett@freepress.mb.ca