Off-ice players the real deciders

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 05/01/2016 (3562 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

NASHVILLE, Tenn. — Players hate it when we bring this stuff up, ditto for coaches and management. One season is independent of the other, they insist, so there’s no point wasting even a moment glancing in the rear-view mirror.

But to get a firm grasp on where the Winnipeg Jets are today — and to predict what might unfold in the weeks ahead — it’s important to rewind a bit to provide some background and perspective. It’s especially relevant now, as the Jets have reached a critical point in a season on the brink of the abyss.

Let’s toss out some of the basics:

The Jets are 18-19-2, last in the Central Division, ahead of only the Edmonton Oilers in the Western Conference and 24th overall. They are closer to the NHL basement — five points — than they are to a playoff spot. We know what the optimists out there are thinking — after all, we hear from the seldom-should-be-heard-a-discouraging-word crowd every day, especially after losses: the Jets haven’t even reached the halfway point of the season, so don’t start penning their obituary, knowing a decent stretch would get them right back into the post-season discussion.

Duly noted.

But the team we saw earlier in the season — the one that busted out of the gate with a 7-3-1 mark — is not the same bunch we’re seeing now, no matter how much coach Paul Maurice & Co. insist they like their handiwork of late. This team is 11-16-1 since that start, hasn’t won more than two in a row since April and is having a nightmarish time trying to win outside of Manitoba.

Those aren’t blips, but trends over the past two months that should have the alarm bells clanging in the True North offices.

What’s even more unsettling is the resolve that defined the Jets a year ago — they were 20-12-7 at this point last January after working through some massive injury hits to their defensive corps — flashes only on occasion now.

No, all is not lost. But for the Jets to reach the 99 points of a year ago — a franchise record that had them just eking into the playoffs — the Jets would have to go 28-10-5 in their final 43 games. Even with the playoff line expected to be lower this spring — hockey math whizzes have the number at 90 points — the Jets would have to go 23-14-6. That number guarantees nothing, as sportsclubstats.com calculates reaching 90 would only mean they have a 43.4 per cent chance of making it to the playoffs.

Interestingly, it was in February of last year GM Kevin Cheveldayoff — intrigued by how his team had battled through the injuries and was establishing a tough-to-play-against identity — pulled off the blockbuster trade with the Buffalo Sabres, then added more pieces at the deadline. The reasoning was simple: the core had earned a chance at taking its best run at a playoff spot.

So, what now? Captain Andrew Ladd and Dustin Byfuglien are potentially playing their last half-season with the franchise if new contracts can’t get done. And there are just as many questions as answers about a squad that is seldom short on compete, but is fading from the playoff picture.

What happens on the ice in the last two games of this road trip — and in the immediate future — will make for good drama. But it’s the decisions made by the higher-ups that will be even more compelling.

ed.tait@freepress.mb.ca Twitter: @WFPEdTait

FIVE OTHER HOT TAKES ON THE JETS…

1. PAUL MAURICE DOESN’T… leave himself open for serious second-guessing often, but he sure did Sunday night when he called on Michael Hutchinson to start in goal against the Anaheim Ducks. Hey, we get the rationale behind Maurice’s decision — he said afterwards he simply didn’t want to run Connor Hellebuyck out there for every second of this five-games-in-eight-days road trip. But what Hellebuyck did the night before in San Jose is exactly what the Jets need in the next few weeks if they are going to take one more valiant stab at the post-season. He was the game’s first star in improving to 8-4 while lowering his goals-against average to 2.01, while his save percentage jumped to .929. That’s what a team with bottom-third special teams and such a small margin for error has to have from its netminder every night.

Maurice has said before he’s not afraid to run with one goalie for long stretches — he did last year when Hutchinson was stopping pucks and then down the stretch when Ondrej Pavelec carried them to the playoffs — and occasionally referenced the years he played the beejeezus out of Arturs Irbie in Carolina (he appeared in 77 games in 2000-01 and 75 the season before).

So the question might not be when Hutchinson gets another start but, given the teams the Jets have to leapfrog to get into the playoffs, why he would get another start.

 

2. NOBODY ASKED ME, BUT… if I’m a rival GM sniffing around the Jets in advance of the trading deadline, my first target is Dustin Byfuglien, not Andrew Ladd — especially if the aim is to land a rental player for a Stanley Cup run. Ladd is the kind of solid, Top 9 leader-type GMs would be seeing as a longer-term piece, but Byfuglien’s versatility in being able to play both wing and defence and the impact he could have on the power play — either as a quarterback on the point or a massive man mountain to plant in front of goaltenders — could be the difference in a playoff series.

 

3. IF I HAD A TURN WITH… Maurice’s line blender, this is what my combinations would look like tonight against the Nashville Predators — Ladd-Little-Wheeler; Ehlers-Scheifele-Stafford; Lowry-Perreault-Burmistrov; Armia-Copp-Thorburn.

Two factors are at play here: Nikolaj Ehlers was his most dangerous earlier this season when working with Mark Scheifele and the Jets would benefit from having him find his offensive mojo again. Secondly, Perreault’s work at centre with Scheifele on the shelf was outstanding. Mathieu Perreault is rather quietly putting up some solid offensive numbers — he is third on the team in scoring with 26 points in 39 games — but he needs to have the puck on his stick to shoot more. His 65 shots is just ninth best on the Jets and that laser he unleashed in San Jose is evidence he should be busier in the offensive zone.

 

4. HEARING/READING/SEEING… a lot of chatter out there about Jets fans welcoming back Evander Kane Sunday with “Track Suit Night” (actually, it’s a matinee. It’s clever and the movement is organic, because the folks at True North always steer clear of stoking those fires. Just one request from Jets Nation: keep it fun, people.

 

5. LASTLY, JUST THROWING THIS OUT THERE… for debate: should the Jets be making a few inquiries about Jonathan Drouin, who went public on the weekend with his desire to be moved out of Tampa? The third-overall pick in 2013 is just 21 and, even with the red flag that gets hauled up over his questionable tactic, he does have enormous skill and upside.

The other intriguing possibility is this: Drouin was a linemate of Nikolaj Ehlers during the Dane’s first year with the Halifax Mooseheads. They played on the same line, with Drouin scoring 29 goals and 108 points in just 49 games while Ehlers had 49 goals and 104 points en route to being named the QMJHL’s top rookie.

It might cost a lot to pry him out of Tampa but Jets brass definitely has some intriguing pieces of their own to dangle.