3 things that could derail the Conservative campaign

Opinion

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 07/04/2016 (3445 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

It is getting increasingly difficult to believe the Progressive Conservatives could do anything now, at this late stage of the 41st provincial election campaign, to screw this up.

A Probe Research poll done for the Free Press and CTV shows the PCs in front with 46 per cent support, the NDP hanging tough at 28 per cent and the Liberals falling to 20 points. Things are tighter in Winnipeg, where the Tories lead by only four per cent over the New Democrats. Still, the Tories remain strong almost everywhere.

This poll confirms what other polls and anecdotal evidence is telling us: Brian Pallister and the Tories appear for all intents and purposes to be headed for a win after nearly 17 years in opposition. The size of that win will be determined more by each party’s ground game in advance polls and on election day itself. Even so, now a full three weeks into the campaign, the other parties are running out of messages and time to eat into Pallister’s lead.

What could derail the Tory train at this stage? Many long-time Tories freely admitted prior to the writ they were nervous about how Pallister would fare in this, his first campaign as a party leader. Pallister has a penchant for off-the-cuff remarks and awkward humour that can backfire him and his party. These indiscretions can be particularly unhelpful when they are delivered in the crucible that is an election campaign.

The good news for Tories is that, save for a brief misstep on the first morning, Pallister has been sharp and on message throughout the campaign. In other words, if the NDP and Liberals were counting on Pallister self-destructing, it doesn’t look like it’s going to happen.

Still, even though things are going well for Pallister and his team, the poll raises three significant concerns as we head into the last two weeks of the campaign.

Those pesky undecided voters.

Probe found nearly one in four voters have still not decided which party they will support in this election. That should cause many sleepless nights for the Tories. It also ensures the NDP has some hope heading into election day, an important commodity that should keep the vaunted New Democratic election machine working at full steam.

That is not good news for the Tories. The NDP, even with its deeply damaged brand, are running the most robust, most sophisticated campaign among the three major parties. As long as New Democratic volunteers think there are some undecided voters out there to be captured, they’re going to keep pushing right through until the polls close.

How far can the Liberals fall?

Last December, in the immediate wake of Trudeaumania 2.0, the Manitoba Liberals appeared poised to make big things happen. Probe poll results from late last year showed the NDP in free fall and the Liberals soaring to nearly 30 per cent support among respondents.

Unfortunately for the Liberals, that was then. Now, it is the Liberals falling and the NDP picking up much needed support.

If the Liberals were to somehow hold on to support in the mid teens, it is likely they would take just enough votes away from the NDP to give the Tories a major breakthrough. That equation is particularly relevant in Winnipeg, where Tory support is much lower and the NDP is lurking behind, just outside the margin of error of the poll.

Liberal support is very hard to track in a poll but here is a fact that worries Tories and boosts the spirits of New Democrats: Liberal support is unusually high outside of Winnipeg where it is very unlikely, if not impossible, for them to win a seat. That means their province-wide numbers are overstated and come election day, it is more likely their share of the vote will be much less than their poll standings. That is a scenario that immediately translates into a lot of close riding-by-riding battles between Tory and NDP candidates, something Pallister would rather avoid.

And speaking of Winnipeg… 

The capital city — with its concentration of voters and seats — has long decided the outcome of provincial elections and this one will be no exception — particularly since the Tories have a lead over the NDP city-wide that is only four points, or just outside the margin of error for the poll.

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Liberal resiliency in particular will determine just how efficient the PC vote will be on April 19. With each point the Liberals drop, the NDP is likely to rise. Too much depression in Liberal support will start to make the PC vote less potent. If the Grits drop back to 2011 levels (seven per cent), then the NDP might just hang on to a few seats the Tories have counted on winning.

Many voters, and many politicians, like to talk about how inaccurate polling has become in a day and age in which it’s increasingly difficult to get respondents to participate, and in which the electorate seems more likely to lurch late in the campaign.

That having been said, the trend lines are very important in all polls and elections. Right now, the Tories are holding firm, the Liberals are falling and the NDP — with all its baggage and self-inflicted wounds — is on a mild upswing.

That is a scenario that should make the last two weeks of the campaign well worth watching.

dan.lett@freepress.mb.ca

Dan Lett
Columnist

Dan Lett is a columnist for the Free Press, providing opinion and commentary on politics in Winnipeg and beyond. Born and raised in Toronto, Dan joined the Free Press in 1986.  Read more about Dan.

Dan’s columns are built on facts and reactions, but offer his personal views through arguments and analysis. The Free Press’ editing team reviews Dan’s columns before they are posted online or published in print — part of the our tradition, since 1872, of producing reliable independent journalism. Read more about Free Press’s history and mandate, and learn how our newsroom operates.