Bombers will need a huge effort to beat Calgary

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This article was published 20/07/2016 (3367 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

If the Winnipeg Blue Bombers (1-3) are going to beat the Calgary Stampeders (1-1-1) Thursday night, they’ll need to be the better team.

It’s an obvious formula, and yet one the Blue and Gold have rarely been able to achieve against the Stampeders in recent history. Since 2008, Winnipeg has beaten Calgary just three times in 18 games, including seven straight losses at home.

Couple that with the fact they’ve already lost to Calgary this year — an embarrassing 36-22 Week 2 loss at McMahon Stadium — and the odds are stacked against the Bombers. Consider this: Calgary, which didn’t play last week, has won 13 straight games when coming off a bye week, dating back to 2005. So, there’s that, too.

But enough with the history lesson, let’s focus on the present. Here are five story lines heading into Thursday’s game:

DO OR DIE

A loss to the Edmonton Eskimos last week spoiled what could have been Winnipeg’s first two-game win streak in more than two years. But alas, the Bombers find themselves in the middle of another slow start at 1-3, and with that have already hit must-win territory.

“It’s definitely a must-win. All of these games count,” said Bombers defensive tackle Euclid Cummings. “We can’t say it’s OK to lose and come back next week. We need to get things rolling.”

Simple math shows a loss would drop the Bombers to 1-4, and that would create a much harder road to a playoff berth.

The schedule doesn’t get any easier for the Bombers, who head to Commonwealth Stadium for a rematch with the Esks next week before returning home to take on the Hamilton Tiger-Cats in what is expected to be quarterback Zach Collaros’ first game back from a knee injury he sustained last season. The Blue Bombers can’t afford to lose at Investors Group Field, a place they’ve won just seven times in 29 games.

ON THE HOT SEAT

His 1,239 passing yards and 72.2 per cent completion rate rank second among CFL quarterbacks. But unless he can improve on his one win this year, quarterback Drew Willy will remain on the hot seat.

In his two starts at home this year, Willy has combined for just 17 points in the first half. He’s been booed off the field in both games and fans have demanded to see backup Matt Nichols. From the outside, the pressure is on for him to prove his worth, even if Willy doesn’t quite see it that way.

“There’s not more pressure, I think it’s more on me to ignore stuff,” said Willy, who will play his first game against the Stampeders at IGF. “That’s really what it comes down to, is just trying to be more locked in to the things that I can control.”

Willy has struggled with the long ball all season, but looked good in practice this week, hitting on a number of big plays. But if that can’t translate onto the field, none of it will matter and the pressure will only build with a loss to the Stamps.

MESSAM RULES

If the Bombers are to win, they’ll have to find a way to stop the Calgary running game. Of the 365 rushing yards the Bombers have allowed this season, 207 came in the Week 2 loss to Calgary. Leading the way for the Stamps was running back Jerome Messam, who rushed for 137 yards on 16 carries, including a 53-yard scamper late in the third quarter to set up Calgary’s fourth touchdown.

“Everyone runs the same when there’s no holes,” said Bombers defensive tackle Euclid Cummings. “We just got to get him down.”

As noted by Free Press columnist Doug Brown earlier this week, Messam has had his way with the Bombers over the past two seasons. Since 2014, the 245-pound back has played the Bombers seven times, averaging just 10 carries per game but has totalled a whopping 548 yards. Simply put, he’s a threat every time he touches the ball.

STAYING GROUNDED

But it’s not just Calgary’s running game that has been the focus this week. The Bombers have dedicated plenty of practice time in getting more yards out of the backfield.

After racking up 108 yards on the ground against the Montreal Alouettes in the season opener, the Bombers have averaged fewer than 40 rushing yards in their last three games.

It’s not that running back Andrew Harris hasn’t been getting the ball — he currently leads the league in combined touches with 43 rushing attempts and 26 receptions — but his 4.1 yards per carry is the lowest average in his career.

“The run game needs to get better and it starts with the five guys that block and ends with me,” said Harris. “At the end of the day when it does get into my hands we got to get six, seven yards a carry instead.”

Building a better run game is not only important in getting manageable second downs, it also helps wear out the opposing defence and open up the deep pass.

Harris, who once roomed with Messam while both were with the B.C. Lions, said he takes pride in beating his competition. If he can top Messam, it’ll likely be enough to get the Bombers the win.

KICKERS DUEL

The game will see a battle between two of the league’s best kickers in Justin Medlock and Rene Paredes. In fact, the two are first and second, respectively, in CFL all-time field-goal percentage, with Medlock hitting 86.4 per cent and Paredes at 84.5.

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But as good as they have been over their careers, both have struggled in 2016, with each hitting eight of their 12 field-goal attempts. Medlock said earlier this week he’s still trying to find his groove — he didn’t have a single attempt against Calgary in Week 2 — particularly from longer distances. All four of his misses have come from 47 yards or farther.

Paredes seems to be struggling with shorter kicks, including two missed field goals under 40 yards. He’s also missed three converts.

Considering two of the last four games between these two teams have been decided by four points or less, it may just come down to who can figure it out first.

 jeff.hamilton@freepress.mb.ca

twitter: @jeffkhamilton

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Jeff Hamilton
Multimedia producer

Jeff Hamilton is a sports and investigative reporter. Jeff joined the Free Press newsroom in April 2015, and has been covering the local sports scene since graduating from Carleton University’s journalism program in 2012. Read more about Jeff.

Every piece of reporting Jeff produces is reviewed by an editing team before it is posted online or published in print — part of the Free Press‘s tradition, since 1872, of producing reliable independent journalism. Read more about Free Press’s history and mandate, and learn how our newsroom operates.