Jets’ fourth line a smart combo

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This article was published 23/11/2018 (2479 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

A member of the Winnipeg Jets I really looked forward to watching this season was Jack Roslovic, a first-round pick (25th overall) in 2015 who earned a spot on the roster right out of training camp.

As a rookie during the 2017-18 campaign who played just 31 games, Roslovic produced at nearly a half-a-point-per-game pace in limited minutes while creating offensive chances against fairly managed competition at a first-line rate during five-on-five situations. That’s pretty heady stuff for a 21-year-old rookie forward and I see him as a huge part of the future core of the Jets — an important, cost-controlled piece for a team that should be a perennial Stanley Cup contender.

Unfortunately, Roslovic didn’t have the greatest start to the season, putting up just two assists in his first 14 games while being exploited defensively fairly consistently.

A similar story afflicted veteran forward Mathieu Perreault, at least offensively. He has long been an under-rated play driver in the NHL who keeps his team on the right side of the puck when he’s on the ice and chips in with about 40 points per season, despite regularly missing time due to injury.

Perreault produced solid second-line numbers with 17 goals and 39 points in 70 games a year ago, he’s stuck at just three goals and four points this season.

While juggling his lines, Jets coach Paul Maurice put the two struggling offensive players together with Nic Petan, who has played well in the American Hockey League for several seasons but has had a hard time in the NHL. The early results show Maurice has found something there when analyzing the statistics of each player before and after they were united as a forward trio.

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Petan’s sample size before the line was put together was miniscule at just 12 minutes, so I wouldn’t put much value in the fact he was not on the ice for a high-danger scoring chance against. But the main thing to notice is that Roslovic has gone from being outplayed quite severely in every category — except for passes to the slot — to contributing to the Jets outplaying their opponents by a massive margin when he’s on the ice.

Perreault, whose underlying numbers are almost always strong, has gone from already good to even better, with a big improvement in his pass-to-the-slot numbers with both his offensive and defensive contributions much stronger in that area.

Petan meanwhile, just looks excellent at five-on-five across the board with the forward unit, despite not producing any points.

When you break down how each plays the game, the chemistry makes sense: Roslovic is primarily a playmaker involved in creating over eight scoring chances per 20 minutes while this line has been together, a top-line rate in the NHL; Perreault is great at getting into the tough areas on the ice despite being undersized, producing plenty of high-danger chances that Roslovic has orchestrated; Petan, meanwhile, likes to set up in the high slot, and, in fact, only talented marksmen Patrik Laine and Mark Scheifele have produced chances from there at a higher rate than Petan since this line was put together.

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Moving the puck to the slot has been the name of the game for this line, completing a combined 5.03 passes to the slot every 20 minutes, behind only the Scheifele line, which creates an absolutely absurd 6.37 passes — one of the best marks in the entire NHL.

That level of pre-shot movement from a fourth line is a huge asset for Winnipeg. Considering it has the veteran savvy of Perreault to keep things relatively composed, it’s not a line that necessarily needs to be sheltered, although Maurice always considers the uniquely strong grinding line of Adam Lowry, Brandon Tanev and Andrew Copp in his decision-making during certain situations..

Considering this line has played just 40 minutes together, we’re probably getting a little carried away here in digging into all the data, but things such as shot-attempt differentials give us an idea of what the line can do long-term. And it doesn’t hurt that by every measure this line comes out looking good.

Whether the skilled trio can sustain this level of play long enough to get all start generating offence offensively is up for debate, but right now it appears to be a very smart combination.

Andrew Berkshire is a hockey writer specializing in data-driven analysis of the game.