Campaigning hard in bellwether riding

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This article was published 13/09/2021 (1455 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

As Winnipeg South goes, so goes the federal election.

The rapidly growing electoral district has swung between Liberal and Conservative control for decades. Widely deemed a bellwether riding, since 1988, the victor in this riding has been a candidate from the party that’s elected to form government.

Incumbent Liberal candidate Terry Duguid said that means no outcome is assumed, though he’s received a “great reception” during campaign phone calls and doorstop visits.

“In Winnipeg South, it’s always competitive between the two major parties out here, the Conservatives and the Liberals. And so we’re taking nothing for granted, we’re working hard … It’s a very positive sense at the door, and I would say things are as good or better than 2019,” he said.

Duguid narrowly won the riding with 42 per cent of the vote to the Conservative runner-up’s 39 per cent in 2019.

On Friday afternoon, he jogged between voters’ homes in Waverley Heights, trying to reach residents he’d missed earlier and remind supporters to vote.

One supporter confirmed he’d already done so, crediting the Liberals with a strong COVID-19 response.

“They got us through this thing so far,” said Andrew Krentz, a Waverley Heights resident.

Krentz said his vote was also cast “against” the Conservatives, as he believes the Liberals have the strongest chance to defeat them.

As the pandemic drags on, Duguid said health care and education are top of mind in Winnipeg South, which contains Victoria Hospital and the University of Manitoba. He said recent budget cuts by Manitoba’s Progressive Conservative government have hurt the Tory brand in Manitoba, even at the federal level.

“People are very angry about provincial cuts… and they’re very, very concerned about what a federal conservative government would do in terms of supporting health care,” he said.

Duguid noted the riding is “growing by leaps and bounds,” raising new concerns about access to housing as prices rise.

The 2016 census found the riding had a population of 99,678, up from 85,540 in 2011. Waverley West grew by 11,171 people between 2016 and 2020 to reach a total of 56,085 residents last year, City of Winnipeg population estimates state.

That growth has been fuelled largely by immigration, increasing the riding’s diversity.

Conservative candidate Melanie Maher, who came in second place to Duguid in 2019, said voters with provincial Tory complaints tend to quickly accept the difference between the two levels of government.

She said the Liberal decision to call an early election during the fourth wave of COVID-19 is sparking frequent angry comments from voters.

“(Voters are) not too happy that an election was called in the middle of a pandemic. It’s been a rough 19 months for some… People are really looking forward to when we can get things back to normal,” she said.

Maher said she feels many Winnipeg South voters are inspired by her party’s pandemic recovery plan.

“There’s a sense of hope when we are talking about our plan, and I think people are ready for a change,” she said.

The riding’s NDP candidate hopes to break the trend of support shifting between just two parties and offer a third choice.

“There’s a lot of frustration with things that have not changed or not improved over the last few years… People are wanting a change, it’s just a matter of whether they (will) make that switch,” Aiden Kahanovitch said.

Kahanovitch said he expects NDP support to grow nationally in this election and hopes that pays off in Winnipeg South.

A recent Leger poll found the Liberals and Conservatives tied for first place in support among Winnipeg voters, making it tough to predict the result of the swing riding.

“There isn’t, in the polling at least, an indication of strong momentum in anyone’s favour… I would say (Winnipeg South is) leaning Liberal but (that’s) not a sure thing,” Paul Thomas, a professor emeritus of political studies at the University of Manitoba, said.

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Thomas said Winnipeg South’s growth could also sway the vote because many large homes are being built in the riding.

“There’s some pretty big homes, affluent homes there, and presumably those people have more Conservative tendencies… There are more people, perhaps, in that income bracket who identify with a Conservative party that promises lower taxes and dealing with deficits and debt,” he said.

Thomas said lingering resentment over the Liberal’s early election call as the pandemic drags could also affect election night results.

joyanne.pursaga@freepress.mb.ca

Twitter: @joyanne_pursaga

Joyanne Pursaga
Reporter

Joyanne is city hall reporter for the Winnipeg Free Press. A reporter since 2004, she began covering politics exclusively in 2012, writing on city hall and the Manitoba Legislature for the Winnipeg Sun before joining the Free Press in early 2020. Read more about Joyanne.

Every piece of reporting Joyanne produces is reviewed by an editing team before it is posted online or published in print — part of the Free Press‘s tradition, since 1872, of producing reliable independent journalism. Read more about Free Press’s history and mandate, and learn how our newsroom operates.